We can’t ignore the elephant in The room, Green needs to start over KPJ

Forget about the elephant. We need to get rid of that Wall.

 

Yes I feel this team is much better than the shambles of a team
that Harden, Tucker, Westbrook, Morey and D'Antoni left us.

It's very complicated, one must have a, "Beautiful Basketball Mind,"
to understand. Here are some bullet point tidbits that must be digested
to see a bigger picture.
___________________________________________________
1) An Ill equipped roster to perform the simple task of Pick-n-Roll as the Rockets
had piss poor screeners from the Morey/D'Antoni days when the Rockets played
Iso all the time and a 5-men out scheme. Main staple of the Silas offense is
predicated on PnR action; everything (Slashing/Cutting) feeds off of that.

2) Takes players about a month to get use to new coach/schemes. Rockets had
constant turnaround from Westbrook to Wall (coming off two yr hiatus) not 100%,
Harden dogging it, Tucker dogging it, Oladipo (injured), Cousins one legged all
compounded things. I don't expect those distractions. Last year's crew will help
this year's newcomers transition into the system.

3) No interior defenders vs bigger players. Rockets were forced to pull perimeter
defenders to shore up the interior defense. For every action there is a reaction.
That reaction was open 3's. The 3-ball defense killed the Rockets last season
(among other things). Theis DFG% in the "restricted area" was 62.7% last season.
Garuba/Sengun will give spot minutes and be much better than Cousins, Spalding,
Patton, Lamb. Rockets will have more of a defensive presence....
and allow our perimeter players to stay more at home on the 3-pt shooters.
Improving our 3-pt DFG%.

Add spot defensive help as Silas can now mix things up send help or not. Show
bringing help and bluffing now will work. Teams knew last season that the Rockets
had to send help or it would be a layup drill. Rockets decent DF% in RA should improve
now this season:
Wood: 62.7% (RA)......60.9% ( < 5 ft)
Nwaba: 59.8% (RA)....58.6% ( < 5 ft)
Wall: 62.7% (RA)..........60.6% ( < 5 ft)
Augustin: 65.7% (RA)...63.5% ( < 5 ft)
EGordon: 65.3% (RA)....63.4% ( < 5 ft)
House: 67.2% (RA)........63.9% ( < 5 ft)
_____________________________________

Pick-n-Roll (Ball Handlers 20/21)
EGo: 29.9% (freq)...1.10 (ppp).......93.0 (NBA percentile)
Augustin: 44.3% (freq)....1.03 (ppp)....86.4 (NBA percentile)
Porter Jr: 39.8% (freq).....0.77 (ppp)...30.1 (NBA percentile)
Wall: 36.7% (freq)............0.81 (ppp)....40.6 (NBA percentile)

So EGo and Augustin are there if things get stagnant.

Porter didn't have the luxury of having a decent screener. Cousins
left the team, Spalding, Patton, Lamb suck. I'm expecting Porter Jr
to be more aggressive and avoid the Harden/Lin dueling banjos
that didn't work together. Wall was 38.4% in Catch-n-Shoot 3's.

Wall: has sported a decent winning percentage the years he had an
adequate PnR partner (Roll-Man). Last year we packed that half of the equation.
(12/13): 24 gms won / 49 gms played (.489) with Nene /Omeka Okafor
(13/14): 44 gms won / 82 gms played (.536) with Nene / Gortat
(14/15): 43 gms won / 79 gms played (.544) with Gortat / Nene
(15/16): 36 gms won / 77 gms played (.468) with Gortat / Nene
(16/17): 48 gms won / 78 gms played (.615) with Gortat / Mahinimi
(17/18): 23 gms won / 41 gms played (.561) with Gortat / Mahinimi
(18/19): 13 gms won / 32 gms played (.406) with Thomas Bryant (1 yr exp) /
(Mr No PnR) Dwight Howard / Gortat. Wall Injury season
(19/20): injury season
**(20/21): 12 gms won / 40 gms played (.300) with Wood, Cousins, Spalding, Patton,
Lamb, Cam Oliver.

**Rockets season in 20/21 was 17 wins in 72 games.....this year is scheduled
for 82 games. So Wall playing 68 games at a 30% winning percentage gives
us 20 wins. I believe Wall gives us a greater winning % due to being near
86% healthy as opposed to being about 75% healthy last season.

Plus, the addition of a proven screen setter that pushes off without extending
the elbows consistently. Resulting in bigger windows for Wall (& others)
to pass the ball to Theis.

In 18/19, Wall played 32 games:
32.6% (freq)...0.87 (ppp)......60.5 (NBA percentile) [PnR Ball Handler]

Gortat (18/19):
31.8% (freq)....1.16 (ppp)......63.0 (NBA percentile) [PnR Roll-Man]

Theis (18/19):
26.8% (freq)....1.30 (ppp).....86.1 (NBA percentile) [PnR Roll-Man]
*what happened last season? Kemba Walker was playing injured and
Teague looked out of place all year.

So I'm expecting good things from PnR with Theis as Roll-Man
for some PnR and PnPop while paired with any of: Wall, EGo, Jalen Green,
Augustin, Porter, Josh Christopher, Tate, House, Wood.

Wood was: 20.8% (freq)....1.18 (ppp)......64.7 (NBA percentile in 20/21)...but
19.7% (freq)......1.50 (ppp).......95.4 (NBA percentile).

Theis will set the table for Wood to excel as Wall, EGo, Green, Porter build confidence.
Then:
Kenyon [11.3% (freq), 1.38 (ppp), 90.3 (NBA percentile)]
Tate [ 7.1% (freq), 1.30 (ppp), 84.0 (NBA percentile)]
Nwaba [ 4.6% (freq), 1.33 (ppp), 86.0 (NBA percentile)]

will take off in the Silas system as PnR Roll-Men.
***See Dallas freq of Ball Handler and Roll-Man in 19/20 to see Silas scheme thru the
numbers.
___________________________________
Catch-n-Shoot (20/21):
Augustin 42.1% (3P%)
Wood 36.9% (3P%)
Kenyon 37.5% (3P%)
Wall 38.4% (3P%)
House 34.6% (3P%)

Jalen Green 40% (3P% in G-league)

with greater PnR action comes more open 3's.
Again, with every action comes a reaction.
__________________________

Cutters/Slashers (20/21)
Tate 81.1 (NBA percentile)
Wood 80.5 (NBA percentile)
Kenyon 29.9 (NBA percentile.....I expect this much higher after studying the playbook
all off-season.
House 53.8 (NBA percentile)
Nwaba 51.3 (NBA percentile)

Theis (20/21) 88.6 (NBA percentile)

Sengun and Garuba will also be benefactors of an improved PnR, spot shooters along
the perimeter.....as well as Green, Porter cutting along the baseline for some lob dunks.

Silas has enough vets at each position to stop the bleeding in most games.
If rooks or young players are making mistakes.....insert Wall or EGo or Theis or
House or Tate or Wood. Silas has options. Coach will coach. Do I think the
Rockets have a schedule of 82 games vs Summer league teams? No

But I do think Eric Gordon, Green, Wood, Augustin. House, Wall (in CnS 3's) can spread
the court better than Lamb, Phills, Marcus Foster. Open things up for our PnR or
PnPop action. Theis/Sengun can run the offensive hub from near the 3-pt line. Hit
high-flying cutters along the baseline. I'm pretty confident this team can win 38 to 43
games this season. Guarantee you Green doesn't want people looking at his career
stats on basketball-reference.com and see Kobe year one numbers. What were they?
15 minutes and 9 points? Green won't waste a year tanking just so CF's can get their
jollies fantasizing about Banchero or Chet. Coach Silas won't be sitting on his hands
either.....setting up the next coach to get one of those top 5 guys.











I've already covered the fact that Wall, Wood and Eric Gordon missed over 30 games
each as a tank job. Mission accomplished. Now Management, Coaches and players
will go all out. No holding back.

Silas system starts with Pick-n-Roll, which was a piss poor attempt last season with
Wood weak screens, Cousins too slow (hobbled), Lamb/Patton/Spalding were G-league
material.....Olynyk gave us no defense (so plus o

 

Damn thanks for the breakdown. I like the percentage makes of the catch and shoot #3s per player you showed, Silas can work with that if we are healthy.

I remember you being very high on Green before the draft. Now after watching Green play in summer league, what are your expectations for Green and KPJ?

 

Kobe Bryant didn't start until the Lakers' 44th game of the season and was back on the bench by the 46th. In fact, he only started 6 times his rookie year. His sophomore year he started 1 game. In Kobe's 4th year in the league, it took him 4 games before he was included in the starting lineup. AND they won a championship that year.

I don't think starting needs to be the measurement stick. It certainly didn't mean much to Kobe's early career.

 

The Lakers were a great team ofcourse they wouldnt start a rookie. We always circle back to spoiled Rockets fans, not really trying to insult anyone but its something I think most of you are not aware of. We have been winning so long you dont understand the difference between how a 50+ win team runs things and how a 17 win team should run things. For us our youth is everything, Kobe would end up being great but they didnt need him to be successfull that first year. The second year they did even better winning 60 games while Kobe came off the bench yes they were that good. The Rockets are not the late 90's Lakers.

 

I stand by what I said and you’re a jackhole for talking down to me. You’re not nearly as smart as you believe yourself to be. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with coming off the bench in terms of trajectory for Green’s career. In fact, him learning that his on court needs will never be more important than the team’s, is a good lesson. Especially in his first year.

You might want to learn to be a little more respectful in your replies. You shouldn’t talk down to anyone on here, certainly not someone who’s been on here since 1998. Hell you shouldn’t really go anywhere and talk down to anyone. It makes you less likable.

 

Geez man, you could sell a bible to a Buddhist. I’m sold Rockets conquer all this year!

 

So many stats that don't actually support your argument.

1) The Rockets will not win 43 games next year.
2) Green doesn't get to choose if the Rockets tank. He's not good enough as a rookie to carry an NBA team, regardless of how many instagram followers he has.

 

Let me add that I feel 13 teams will be tanking much better than Houston.
Their elevator is kinda stuck near the basement or headed down to the ground floors.
Indiana
Charlotte
Minnesota
Spurs
Thunder (that's a true youth movement with little to no vets fighting the ship)
Kings
Bulls
Cavs
Wiz
Magic
Pistons
Raptors (Siakim and Anunoby are angling their way out....need one more good draft)
Pels (Zion threatening to leave and no free agents want to go there. Blow this year and
Zion under contract one more year.....then restricted free agent). They need a Chet or Banchero
badly to keep Zion)

So Rockets wins gets inflated by default.
____________________________________
Green: dude is going to go all out. He has Kobe/MJ competitiveness. MJ gambled on
everything and had to win at everything. Him and Barkley would bet millions on a single
put in golf. Green can't let go of not being drafted number 1. Guy is relentless.

What I like about Green is that he can play off the ball well since he is or was a 40%
Catch and Shoot from 3 last year. The guy can leap out of the gym and is fast so
Backdoor cuts and/or slashing to the basket are always a threat that the defense
can't let their guard down.

So if the defense is concentrating too. much on Wall/Theis exchange in PnR near the
3-pt line.....Green (Kenyon, Porter) can work free behind the scenes. It's the magicians
smoke and mirror deception of look at one hand while the other should be the
real focus that Silas can now implement.

Rockets are moving on from a bunch of 6'3" under the rim players to 6'5"-ish above
the rim slash and dash high flying act. Bye-bye Rivers, McLemore movement
without the ball of a Green, Porter, Kenyon, Nwaba......Josh Christopher can
play above the rim and Tate has slimmed down to possibly give us that as well.

I expect the Rockets to give us some Princeton offense mixed in with some
Triangle offense, 3-pt line extended, read and react scheme. So yes youth
will make mistakes and not read the defense well all the time; but I expect
a constant blend of youth with vet on the court action. I can see one of
Porter or Green down the stretch to finish games with vets.....probably not
both. And yes the vets will be communicating, talking and directing the kids
constantly while on the court.
_____
Getting back to Green, I've covered off ball attributes are ideal for the Silas scheme.
Doesn't matter that Green is a rookie, he can still get a weak side screen off ball and cut
to the rim and elevate for lob dunk threat or layup plus the foul.

Converts free throws.

Hits step back 3's and CnS 3's.

Demon on the fast break. With his speed, athleticism, and ability to rise,
Green will put a lot of pressure on the defense constantly. Silas will need
to reel him in on occasion so that he doesn't go "Corey Brewer" on us and
overplay the passing lanes and jumping the routes too much. Pick and
choose the times wisely. Trust his speed.

Previous point goes into the defensive aspect of the Green game. Overreacting in
the G-league got Green in trouble. In the summer League game Cade felt Green
off balance trying to get to the spot before Cade and he just reversed his direction
while dribbling behind his back for an open 3. Like in self defense martial arts, use
your opponents weight and momentum against him. Green needs to learn not
to get too far over his skies so much. Don't out kick his coverage. Again, trust his speed.
___________________
If Green, Wall and Porter are on the floor, I see a lot of Green/Porter switching in space
defensively to avoid Green guarding SF's and bigger......Porter avoiding quicker smaller
players. Porter body size is better for guarding those SF's. And Green vs SG size players.

Theis is not a shot blocker but does make players alter some shots. Has to be respected
when a player is absorbing contact and Theis is lingering near that third tier of defense.
Wood should have more energy to provide better help defense this season. Those two
players can help Porter/Green more times than not. Both Green and Porter recognize
that their defense will have to improve to be considered good NBA players.

________________
In Summary: I expect Green to hit some 3's, mid range, lob dunks, cuts to the basket, slashing
to the basket, PnR, FT's, fast break points, steals, block some shots, a few rebounds (esp long
rebounds off missed 3's by both teams).......all contingent on Silas feel for the game as coach.
Silas will be the conductor leading this orchestra. Punching buttons, inserting players or taking
them out depending on mistakes, mismatches, or game situations. Who has the hot hand
or experiencing a slump. I've said before I expect 26 minutes from Green and bringing
in 22 points per game. I believe the summer League game gave us a glimpse of how Green
is going to be aggressive going to the hoop. One game had 11 FT attempts if I'm not mistaken.
That's how Harden often looked so efficient......all the FT attempts. Tac on 7 or 8 points right
there.

But it depends on minutes distribution, building trade value of Eric Gordon and Wall if possible.
I'm of the thinking that the Rockets can showcase Wall or Gordon in just 22 minutes of
action. But I'm guessing Wall gets 28 minutes a game; which is down from his 31
minutes a game last season. Christopher only gets G-league or garbage time action.
Augustin gets a few minutes only to show the youngsters how to run PnR
properly. Might finish a close game early in the season as the kids are still learning

I can tell you this, Green will be shooting for that watermark of 20 points per game
and winning the rookie of the year award..

 

Your opinion, and you are entitled to it.

Thank you for your service.

 

You are ignoring facts. We have Sengun the Ball Whisperer, Eric Gordon (or Gordan if you prefer), Josh Christopher, John friggin Wall, Christian out of the injury woods Wood, Kelvin Tato, KJ from the Spring block parties Martin, Usman the U.S. man Garuba, David 12 spellings Nwaba, The theistic Theis, Snipa Brooks, and Danuel 44D/changed ma numba House. Those facts don’t even touch the fact that is Jalen Green Paper Money. We are going to win 82 games, write it down, and you’re right… Money Green can’t stop us from all that winning. He can only help keep the momentum going.

It’s gonna be a fun season proving all these doubters wrong!

DJ Augustin is flat out missing from my list… his addition is basically championship breakfast wheaties on top of every other fact I’ve listed.

 

I literally said I wasnt trying to insult you and you're crying then started doing the exact thing you"re excusing me of, lol. Way to play victim. Green or KPJ starting is about team need and if you havent learned that by reading what I said you werent reading it in the first place. Seems to be a trend on here to not actually read the posts you are replying to, if you read it you didnt comprehend well what Im saying. Thats a trend too only replying to win an argument not to actually debate and understand the point of it all. You were provin wrong in your lakers point take it like a man and move on.

 

You crazy man.

On paper I like what Stone/Silas have done.

Would like another experienced front court player to go along with Wood/Theis;
but all-in-all Sengun doesn't get off the ground much and fall for pump fakes much.
Does the verticality rule thing well. Won't make the huge rookie mistakes so often.

Josh Christopher imo is a future asset. Not really for now. Team probably likes
his ability to sky and has shown an ability to throw lobs without second thought.

PnR above the break 3-pt line, spot shooters hitting their 3's, opens lanes for
PnR Ball Handlers, begets slashers/cutters to rim. Silas says, it's elementary,
my dear peleincubus, elementary.

Defense, with Theis as our anchor near the rim. Nwaba, Wood, Eric Gordon, Wall,
House, Tate, Kenyon.....Garuba and Sengun pitching in here and there. I feel
like we have enough defensive vets to right the ship in most instances.

Much of our defense last year was send everyone to help out our interior
defense. Left 2 or 3 shooters wide open at the 3-point line. NBA shooters
can bury around 60% from 3 during shoot around......team can't leave players
open during real games like that a not expect to be down by 30 points.
The addition of Theis helps a bunch.

Now I'm not saying chalk us up for 59 wins; but the elements are there to be
competitive and entertaining. Shock teams that saw us as a cake walk last season.

Most of my Rockets claim to success this year hinges on Wall improving health wise
and recapturing that Wall-Gortat exchange thru Wall-Theis.
If that PnR shows signs of life.....Green, Tate, Porter, Kenyon can operate by setting
screens for each other behind enemy lines (along the baseline).
We are a quicker, faster, taller, more athletic team this year.
Honestly, even if Wall doesn't look that 85% healthy that I'm hoping for, I expect
Porter Jr and Green to exploit the screens Theis sets for them.

And Silas is going to get guys paid. His system sets up players to maximize
their potential and puts them in position to succeed. Much like D'Antoni
in the past. Problem last season was Silas just didn't have all the tools
needed to win. Now he is better equipped.

*Side note: I personally can't claim that the Rockets will be without 3 key players
for more than 30 games each in the same season, again like we did with Wall.
Wood and Eric Gordon. If I do that then I have to say the same with Nets Harden,
Kyrie, ?Durant?......or Lakers AD, LeBron, ?Westbrook?.....or Suns CP3, Ayton. ?Booker?
We then have to assume that with every team. Injuries.

 

Yeah, you secured that bag for sure. That d-bag.

Move along small mind. The big boys are talking. Now be a good little d and go play with your vidja games and make all the fun trades and swish those baskets! If that doesn't make you feel better and gaslighting your world doesn't improve things, why don't you take outcha twig and berries and roll em' around for mamma for a little while.

I still stand by what I said. Starting doesn't have to be the measuring stick. Even if it's your tiny little measuring stick.

 

Wall is the true elephant in the room.

And no way to be rid of him without ripping out the walls and devaluing your home.

 

Love the optimism man.

So refreshing compared to all the negativity but going from 17 wins to 43 is a tall order, historic even.

And Silas will not be playing any Triangle and for good reason - Silas is not a Triangle expert nor is Tex Winter walking through that door.

Even Phil could not get Triangle to work without Tex.

Playing such a complicated offense, especially part-time, is an exercise in futility.

 

20 year old playing PG for first time and putting up historic 50/10 is very different from 32 year old Russ playing PG his entire NBA career.

C'mon man, apples to oranges.

 

What youre refuting is not what I said. You cant have your point proven wrong and then change your point and throw a tantrum "measuring stick" is not something I ever said. The Kobe point you made was stupid because the lakers were a 50+ win the first year and 60+ the second ofcourse they wouldnt start a rookie they are already good that is NOT the situation we are in. I showed you why your point was wrong and you got mad and changed the subject end of story lol

 

The point of starting Green and Kpj over House and Gordon is that they are already better than those 2 players. You can put Tate in there and maybe theres a discussion to be had there but for some reason most people want him to play the 4 lol. The point is I never said starting is a measuring stick. We are a bad team and they are better than the vets ofcourse they should start and gain the experience. You cant bench people who are better just because they are young thats dumb.

 

See my reply above.

All metaphors are apples to oranges. A metaphor is often used to illustrate the awkwardness of point by replicating it in a different scenario.

The end of my post was that "until something happens it's potential". So we're saying the same thing. In addition, what I'm saying is that players haven't "earned" starting positions or any sort of expectations based on potential alone.