Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:01 AM CDT Friday August 27, 2021 Ida Tropical Storm Ida is located near 19.7N 81.2W, or about 25 miles to the north of Grand Cayman Island. It is moving to the northwest at 15 mph and has max sustained winds of 45 mph. It is expected to continue to the northwest and strengthen across the northwestern Caribbean today. The system then moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico from tonight into early Saturday morning. It then continues to the northwest and intensifies into a hurricane on Saturday. Ida then moves into the north-central Gulf from Saturday night into Sunday while continuing to intensify before moving inland just to the east of Vermilion Bay in Louisiana by late on Sunday afternoon as a 120 mph system. Please refer to the latest advisory for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 30 is located near 33.0N and 53.5W, or about 660 miles to the east of Bermuda. It is moving slowly to the east-northeast. The thunderstorms remain disorganized with this disturbance. The disturbance is forecast to move to the east-northeast from today through Saturday before turning to the northeast and accelerating out ahead of a cold front on Sunday. The environmental conditions across the area where it will be moving are expected to be somewhat favorable from today into Saturday before becoming unfavorable for development by Sunday. Therefore, the chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours and within the next 7 days is 50 percent. Disturbance 34 is a tropical wave located along 46W, or about 1020 miles to the east-northeast of Trinidad. The disturbance is moving northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Scattered thunderstorms associated with the disturbance remain disorganized. It is expected to move in a northwest to northerly direction today and then continue to the north from this weekend into the beginning of next week. The environmental conditions are favorable through this weekend before they become unfavorable by the beginning of next week. Therefore, the chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours is 60 percent and the chance of development within the next 7 days is 80 percent. Long range models indicate a potential disturbance (Area to Watch on map) may develop across the southwestern Caribbean Sea to the north of Panama from Monday into Tuesday of next week. This potential disturbance is forecast to then progress in a north to northwesterly direction across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea from the middle to end of next week. The environmental conditions next week across the area where it will be moving are forecast to be marginal for any tropical development. Therefore, there is a 0 percent chance of development within the next 48 hours and then a 25 percent chance of development within the next 7 days. Long range models also indicate another potential disturbance (Area of Concern on map) from Monday into Tuesday of next week. This will be the next tropical wave moving westward off of Africa. Preliminary indications are that this will stay well to the northeast of the Caribbean Sea next week. The environmental conditions will be somewhat favorable for development across the area where it will be moving next week. Therefore, there is a 0 percent chance of development within the next 48 hours and then a 40 percent chance of development within the next 7 days. ********************************** Tropical Storm Ida Advisory 7 Valid: 03:00 AM CDT Friday August 27, 2021 Current Location: 19.7N, 81.2W Geographic Reference: 25 miles north of Grand Cayman Island Movement: Northwest at 15 mph Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 20 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 12 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 80 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1003 mb Key Points 1. Ida appears to be intensifying based upon satellite imagery 2. No major changes were made to the forecast track 3. A damaging tidal surge is expected for southeast Louisiana. Our Forecast Recent satellite imagery and satellite data indicate that Ida likely has intensified slightly. Winds are now estimated at 45 mph. Continued intensification is expected as the environmental conditions are becoming more favorable for development. Ida should be a moderate to strong tropical storm by the time it reaches western Cuba later today. After clearing Cuba, Ida is forecast to continue moving to the northwest through the Gulf of Mexico. Our track takes Ida through the deepwater and coastal lease blocks on its way to southeast Louisiana. The model guidance is converging upon a landfall somewhere between western Vermilion Bay and the mouth of the Mississippi River. Our forecast continues to call for a landfall to occur just east of the Vermilion Bay, over southeast Louisiana late Sunday afternoon. After landfall, a turn more to the north and then to the northeast is likely, which will take Ida through the southern United States. Ida is expected to move fairly slowly across the southern United States, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall. As Ida moves across the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to intensify at a steady to potentially rapid pace. Ida is forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. When it makes landfall over southern Louisiana, it is forecast to have winds of 120 mph. In addition to intensifying, it is expected to grow larger. The forecast size and intensity of Ida means that there is a high risk of a damaging tidal surge over southeast Louisiana. Any deviation to the east of our forecast track would result in a more damaging tidal surge for Mississippi. If Ida were to move west of our forecast track, it would have a few more hours over the water, which would likely result in a stronger storm making landfall. Due to the current forecast trends, we now indicate a Response Plan Activator condition of negative for areas south of Corpus Christi. Expected Impacts on Land Cayman Islands: Flooding-related travel issues today. Some power outages are likely, along with minor coastal flooding. Northern Gulf Coast: Widespread and extended power outages, along with moderate to major wind damage are expected near where Ida makes landfall. Major damage due to the tidal surge is expected across southeast Louisiana, with major coastal flooding likely for Mississippi. Inland areas are expected to experience significant street flooding and major travel delays. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern deepwater lease areas as early as Saturday morning. This makes today the last full day of good flying weather across the northwest Gulf from Garden Banks eastward.
Tropical Storm Ida Advisory 8 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Friday August 27, 2021 Current Location: 20.6N, 82.2W Geographic Reference: 105 miles northwest of Grand Cayman Island Movement: Northwest at 16 mph Max Winds: 65 mph gusting to 80 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 20 out of a possible 50 points (9 size, 11 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles Organizational Trend: Strengthening Forecast Confidence: Above Average Estimated Central Pressure: 997 mb Key Points 1. Ida is now steadily strengthening. 2. No major changes were made to the forecast track 3. Forecast confidence is increased to above-average. Our Forecast A reconnaissance plane has just begun its investigation of Ida this morning. Initial reports from the plane indicate that sustained winds are up to 65 mph in the northeast quadrant. Satellite imagery indicates that wind shear is decreasing and squalls are concentrating near its center. If it wasn't for the interaction with Cuba in about 8 hours, Ida could become a hurricane prior to reaching the Gulf of Mexico tonight We have not made any changes to the forecast track or intensity in this advisory. The one change we made was to increase the confidence level in our forecast to above-average. Models remain in excellent agreement that Ida will move ashore into the Louisiana coast between Vermilion Bay and south of New Orleans late Sunday afternoon. Once inland, Ida will steadily weaken as it tracks northward along the Louisiana-Mississippi border on Monday. There is always some uncertainty as to a hurricane's intensity in a favorable environment. We are predicting that Ida will be a Category 3 hurricane with max sustained wind of about 120 mph when the center reaches the coast south of Morgan City, LA around 5pm Sunday. As Ida tracks northward through Louisiana and Mississippi, its forward speed will be about 8 mph to 9 mph. This increases the risk of very heavy rainfall along and east of the track Sunday and Monday. Cities in the heavier rainfall area include Baton Rouge and New Orleans, where rainfall of 10-15 inches can be expected. Due to increased confidence in the forecast track, we are now indicating that coastal locations from Matagorda Bay to Corpus Christi, Texas are Response Plan Activator - Negative. There is little or no risk from Ida that far west. We are keeping the Houston and the Port Arthur areas RPA positive for now. Expected Impacts on Land Cayman Islands: Flooding-related travel issues today. Northern Gulf Coast: Widespread and extended power outages, along with moderate to major wind damage are expected near where Ida makes landfall. Major damage due to the tidal surge is expected across southeast Louisiana, with coastal flooding likely for Mississippi. Inland areas are expected to experience significant street flooding and major travel delays. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern deepwater lease areas as early as noon Saturday. This makes today the last full day of good flying weather across the northwest Gulf from Garden Banks eastward.
"Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through a very favorable oceanic and atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content waters, low vertical wind shear and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere," the NOAA report said. "These conditions are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance now brings Ida to Category 4 intensity." https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/ida-hurricane-category-4-lousiana/
I live just east of Baton Rouge and they are saying this is a generational storm. Idk but these grocery stores are wrecked already.
My wife and I go to New Orleans once a month or so for dinner/drinking. There are still literally refugees from Lake Charles (via Laura). Im convinced some of the gnarlier homeless are via Katrina. NO has some nice areas but large parts of the city are still ****** from Katrina. I dont think it'd be a deathblow but yes it would be beyond catastrophic. They can't take another blow.
Keep movin' East, lil' doggy.... Hurricane Ida Advisory 9 Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Friday August 27, 2021 Current Location: 21.7N, 83.1W Geographic Reference: Southwest Side of the Isle of Youth Movement: Northwest at 14 mph Max Winds: 75 mph gusting to 90 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 20 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 12 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles Organizational Trend: Strengthening Forecast Confidence: Above Average Estimated Central Pressure: 988 mb Key Points 1. Ida is now a hurricane. 2. No major changes were made to the forecast track or intensity. Our Forecast A reconnaissance plane investigating Ida has found a small area of hurricane-force wind northeast of Ida's center. The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Ida to a hurricane based upon that observation. We have not made any significant changes to the forecast track or intensity in this advisory. Models remain in excellent agreement that Ida will move ashore into the Louisiana coast between western Vermilion Bay and sout h of New Orleans early Sunday evening. Once inland, Ida will steadily weaken as it tracks northward along the Louisiana-Mississippi border on Monday. We are predicting that Ida will be a Category 3 hurricane with max sustained wind of about 120 mph when the center reaches the coast south of Morgan City, LA around 6 pm on Sunday. As Ida tracks northward through Louisiana and Mississippi, its forward speed will be about 8 mph to 9 mph. This increases the risk of very heavy rainfall along and east of the track Sunday and Monday. Cities in the heavier rainfall area include Baton Rouge and New Orleans, where rainfall of 10-15 inches can be expected. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Gulf Coast: Widespread and extended power outages, along with moderate to major wind damage are expected near where Ida makes landfall. Major damage due to the tidal surge is expected across southeast Louisiana, with coastal flooding likely for Mississippi. Inland areas are expected to experience significant street flooding and major travel delays. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls associated with Ida could move into the southern deepwater lease areas offshore southeast and south-central Louisiana as early as noon Saturday. However, squalls not associated with Ida have remained over the offshore lease areas off southeast Louisiana for much of today. Squalls may continue across southeast Louisiana blocks through early Monday afternoon when Ida is well inland into Mississippi. Our next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT
Hurricane Ida Advisory 10 Valid: 09:00 PM CDT Friday August 27, 2021 Current Location: 22.8N, 83.9W Geographic Reference: 540 miles SE of Mouth of MS River Movement: Northwest at 16 mph Max Winds: 80 mph gusting to 100 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 23 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 15 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles Organizational Trend: Strengthening Forecast Confidence: Above Average Estimated Central Pressure: 985 mb Key Points 1. Ida is now forecast to make landfall over southeast Louisiana with winds of 130 mph 2. An even higher tidal surge is expected for southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. 3. Inland flooding is also likely. Our Forecast Ida is crossing western Cuba, and is about to emerge into the Gulf. The current northwesterly motion should continue, taking Ida into the deepwater lease blocks tomorrow. Model guidance remains in excellent agreement that the current motion will continue, resulting in a landfall between Lafayette and the mouth of the Mississippi River. Our forecast is for Ida to move roughly in the middle of these two locations, across southeast Louisiana late Sunday afternoon. After landfall, Ida should slow and then move to the north and eventually to the northeast. This will take Ida inland through the southeast United States. The passage over Cuba has not disrupted the core of Ida. It remains a hurricane with winds of 80 mph. With Ida soon to move over the Gulf of Mexico, steady to rapid intensification is expected. Ida is expected to have winds of at least 100 mph when it enters the deepwater lease areas. By the time it reaches southeast Louisiana, winds are now forecast to be 130 mph. It is possible that Ida could be stronger than forecast at landfall. In addition, Ida is expected to grow somewhat in size. The combination of the expected size and intensity could produce tidal surges of up to 15 feet over southeast Louisiana, and up to 10 feet over parts of coastal Mississippi. Initially, Ida should be slow to weaken after landfall as southeast Louisiana is largely marshland. However, once it moves north of the marshes, rapid weakening is expected. Despite rapidly weakening as it moves inland, Ida is expected to bring heavy rains inland along its path. While the heaviest rains are expected to be confined to southeast Louisiana, some areas as far inland as central Mississippi could receive more than a foot of rain. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Gulf Coast: Severe to catastrophic wind and tidal surge damage is expected near where the eye makes landfall. Complete power outages, likely lasting for weeks, will likely occur for areas that experience the eyewall. Widespread power outages are expected even outside of the eyewall, along with some wind and surge damage. Flooding rains will create widespread street flooding and areas of flood damage. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern deepwater lease areas offshore southeast and south-central Louisiana as early as noon Saturday. Squalls may continue across southeast Louisiana blocks through early Monday afternoon when Ida is well inland into Mississippi.
https://apnews.com/article/new-orle...rms-science--d4b3399437cc5ccb7e76aa270a63f724 Officials decided against evacuating New Orleans hospitals. There’s little room for their patients elsewhere, with hospitals from Texas to Florida already reeling from a spike in coronavirus patients, said Dr. Jennifer Avengo, the city’s health director. At the state’s largest hospital system, Ochsner Health System, officials ordered 10 days worth of fuel, food, drugs and other supplies and have backup fuel contracts for its generators. One positive was that the number of COVID-19 patients had dropped from 988 to 836 over the past week — a 15% decline.
Hurricane Ida Advisory 11 Valid: 03:00 AM CDT Saturday August 28, 2021 Current Location: 23.8N, 85.2W Geographic Reference: 435 miles SE of Mouth of MS River Movement: Northwest at 15 mph Max Winds: 80 mph gusting to 100 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 23 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 15 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Above Average Estimated Central Pressure: 986 mb Key Points 1. There has been little change to the track or intensity forecast. 2. Severe damage from both wind and tidal surge is expected for southeast Louisiana. 3. Hurricane force winds are possible in Baton Rouge. 4. Inland flooding is also likely. Our Forecast Ida continues to move to the northwest. The overnight model guidance indicates that this track will continue. Models continue to converge upon a landfall somewhere between Lafayette and the mouth of the Mississippi River, with the greatest chance of landfall occurring between Morgan City and Houma. Our forecast track is largely unchanged from before. This takes Ida into the deepwater lease blocks today. Landfall is forecast to occur late tomorrow afternoon over southeast Louisiana. After landfall, Ida should slow and turn to the north and then the northeast. Our forecast takes Ida near Baton Rouge early Monday morning and then into the southeast United States. Aircraft data indicated that the core of Ida was slightly disrupted by its passage over Cuba. This has kept the storm from intensifying over the past few hours. It is even possible that our estimate of 80 mph winds is generous. That said, the last pass through the center by the aircraft found a falling pressure, so perhaps Ida is starting to organize. Only gradual intensification over the next 6 to 12 hours is likely as the core recovers. Once the inner core recovers, rapid intensification will likely occur given how favorable the environment is. As Ida moves through the deepwater lease blocks, winds will likely be in the 100 mph to 110 mph range. By the time it reaches the SE Louisiana, winds are forecast to be 130 mph. After landfall, weakening should initially be slow due to the marshland that is over the south coast of Louisiana. More rapid weakening is expected once Ida moves north of the marshland. In addition to intensifying, Ida should become a bit larger. The combination of the intensity and size of Ida should result in a very high tidal surge over southeast Louisiana. Our forecast keeps hurricane force winds a little west of New Orleans. However, Houma and Morgan City are expected to receive the worst of Ida. Baton Rouge is also at risk of receiving hurricane force winds. Once inland, the focus will switch to inland flooding. The heaviest rains, which are forecast to be 10 to 15 inches with isolated 20 inch totals, are expected over southeast Louisiana, including Baton Rouge and New Orleans. However, up to a foot of rain could occur as far north as central Mississippi. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Gulf Coast: Severe to catastrophic wind and tidal surge damage is expected near where the eye makes landfall. Complete power outages, likely lasting for weeks, will likely occur for areas that experience the eyewall. Widespread power outages are expected even outside of the eyewall, along with some wind and surge damage. Flooding rains will create widespread street flooding and areas of flood damage. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern deepwater lease areas offshore southeast and south-central Louisiana as early as noon. Squalls may continue across southeast Louisiana blocks through early Monday afternoon when Ida is well inland into Mississippi.
Everyone in the path of this storm needs to get to safety. This storm sounds like it really could be bad..
