Some other interesting things hit my inbox: Fred is not expected to have any effects on Houston The Texas Coast is expected to be free of any tropical storms for the next 10 days (American and European models) The Saharan Air Layer is less extensive. National Hurricane Center – Disturbance 1 is circled in red. It has an 80% chance of development in 48 hours – The American Model shows it as a tropical storm that is off the Florida coast (in the Atlantic) ~20 August. Cannot yet rule out the possibility that it could enter the Gulf
It’s the weekend and I’m very busy on weekends so quite the opposite of lazy. Fred Tropical Depression Fred is located about 105 miles south-southeast of Key West, Florida. It is moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. We expect Fred to push into the southeast Gulf later today and it may struggle to regain tropical storm status within the next 24 hours as it track to the northwest to north-northwest. Fred will pass to the west of the Florida Peninsula today into Sunday, then move into the western Florida Panhandle just east of Pensacola by Monday afternoon as a moderate tropical storm. Grace Tropical Storm Grace (formerly Tropical Depression Seven) is located 385 miles to the east of the Leeward Islands and moving westward at 22 mph. Grace will move across the northeast Caribbean tonight into Sunday and produce a risk for heavy rainfall and strong to tropical storm force winds across portions of the northeastern Caribbean through Monday. The storm may weaken to a depression as it moves across Hispaniola Monday. There remains a lot of uncertainty on the future track and intensity of Grace beyond Monday. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 26 is located near 23N and 66W, or about 320 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. It is moving to the west-northwest near 20 mph. Thunderstorms are disorganized and no development is expected. Disturbance 29 has been identified to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands along 23W and is moving to the west at 15 mph. There is a 0 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours, then a 10 percent chance of development over the next 7 days ************* Tropical Storm Grace Advisory 6 Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Saturday August 14, 2021 Current Location: 16.0N, 60W Geographic Reference: 95 Miles East of Guadeloupe Island Movement: West-northwest at 17 mph Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 50 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb Key Points 1. We have made a major track and intensity forecast change in this advisory. 2. Grace will likely survive to reach the Gulf of Mexico, where it could become a hurricane late this coming week. 3. A threat of a hurricane impact late next weekend or early the following week along the northern Gulf Coast is developing. Our Forecast A reconnaissance plane investigating Grace has found that the center is south and west of earlier estimates. Because of this farther south initial position, we have adjusted the track farther to the south across the northeast Caribbean and farther south across the Dominican Republic. This makes it more likely that Grace will weaken to a depression as it crosses the Dominican Republic. Latest model guidance is strongly indicating that Grace will survive the predicted wind shear between the Dominican Republic and the western Bahamas. As we had mentioned, if it were to survive, then conditions near Florida and across the Gulf look favorable for strengthening. Since it appears that Grace will survive by passing just north of Cuba, we have made a major change to both the track and intensity forecast. We are now predicting Grace to pass south of Florida as a tropical storm on Thursday and reach the north-central Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next Saturday. Note that the track between Thursday and Saturday is highly uncertain. We cannot be confident where Grace may eventually make landfall. Any location from the mid-Florida Panhandle to south Texas is at potential risk for a hurricane landfall between next Sunday and the following Tuesday. The intensity forecast is also quite uncertain. Models are indicating a range of possibilities from dissipation, as we had previously forecast, to a stronger hurricane. We are predicting a more conservative Category 1 hurricane at day 7. There remains the possibility that Grace could track farther south, which would involve more of an interaction with Cuba, but for now we think a track just north of Cuba is more likely. Because of the increased risk to south Florida and the Bahamas, we have gone RPA-Positive for those areas. Possible Impacts Inland Northern Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico: Possible heavy squalls and tropical storm-force winds, at least in gusts, may cause power outages and flooding issues between This evening and Sunday evening. South Florida: Tropical storm conditions possible on Thursday, resulting in power outages. Heavy rain may cause flooding there. Our next advisory will be issued near 10 PM EDT / AST
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory 7 Valid: 09:00 PM CDT Saturday August 14, 2021 Current Location: 16.5N, 62.0W Geographic Reference: 18 Miles NW of Guadeloupe Movement: West-northwest at 22 mph Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 85 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb Key Points 1. Grace is expected to bring flooding rains to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. 2. The forecast track has been shifted to the south. 3. The intensity forecast is very uncertain. Our Forecast Despite being well organized on satellite imagery, Grace is poorly organized as per afternoon aircraft data. The center is very ill-defined, if it exists at all. However, a well-defined center is expected to form during the overnight hours. Once this forms, Grace should be able to intensify until it moves over Hispaniola late tomorrow or Monday. Uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly after Grace moves over Hispaniola. Some models indicate a continued westward track into the northwest Caribbean and toward the Yucatan, while others indicate that the center may relocate to the north of Hispaniola. The second scenario would favor a west-northwest track north of Cuba and toward South Florida. Given the high level of uncertainty as to which scenario will occur, the forecast splits the difference between the two scenarios and takes Grace near and over Cuba before moving into the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. The intensity forecast after interacting with Hispaniola is even more uncertain. Grace will weaken significantly if it moves over the mountains as forecast. Our forecast weakens Grace to a depression over Hispaniola. Longer term, the forecast keeps Grace as a depression until it moves into the Gulf. If Grace were to move either north or south of Cuba, it likely would be stronger than indicated in the forecast. Once over the Gulf, assuming it does not dissipate over the mountains, conditions should be favorable for intensification. Our forecast is for Grace to become a minimal hurricane by this time next week. However, due to the uncertainty and the land interactions, the forecast errors could be rather large. Possible Impacts Inland Northern Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico: Power outages are likely. Flash flooding could also occur. Hispaniola: Flash flooding and mudslides are expected. Power outages are also expected.
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:33 AM CDT Sunday August 15, 2021 Fred The remnants of Fred are centered about 165 miles west of Key West, Florida. It is moving to the north-northwest at 10 mph. Fred will likely regenerate into a tropical storm later today as it moves to the north-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. Fred will pass to the east of the leases offshore southeast Louisiana late tonight into Monday, then move into the far western Florida Peninsula near the Florida-Alabama border Monday night as a tropical storm. Fred will remain a lopsided storm with most of the strong winds and heavy rainfall occurring to the east of the center as it moves across the Gulf and into the Florida Panhandle. Grace Tropical Storm Grace is located 65 miles to the southeast of St. Croix and moving to the west-northwest at 22 mph. Grace will produce a risk for heavy rainfall and strong to tropical storm force winds across portions of the northeastern Caribbean through Monday. The storm may weaken to a depression as it moves across Hispaniola Monday. There remains a lot of uncertainty on the future track and intensity of Grace beyond Monday. We do think that Grace could enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Thursday as a tropical depression and could strengthen to a strong tropical storm over the central Gulf next weekend. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 30 has been identified 245 miles to the north-northeast of Bermuda near 35.5N, 63.0W. It is a weak low pressure system producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south and southwest of the center. This disturbance is forecast to meander around Bermuda through the middle of next week. There is a low chance that it could acquire tropical characteristics and develop later today or Monday before conditions become less favorable for tropical development. There is a 30 percent chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and 7 days. Disturbance 29 is located to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands along 25W and is moving slowly to the west. There is a 0 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours, then a 10 percent chance of development over the next 7 days as it moves across the Atlantic. Disturbance 26 has dissipated well north of the Caribbean and has been removed from our analysis. ********************************************** Tropical Storm Grace Advisory 9 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Sunday August 15, 2021 Current Location: 17.1N, 65.9W Geographic Reference: 80 miles SW of Ct. Croix Movement: West-northwest at 13 mph Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 4 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 45 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb Key Points 1. Impacts across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico may be minimal today. 2. Grace's precise track and intensity remain quite uncertain. 3. If Grace survives passing Cuba, then it could become a hurricane threat to northeast Mexico or south Texas late next weekend. Our Forecast Grace appears to be a relatively small storm this morning. There is some question as to the status of its circulation. There has been no reconnaissance mission into Grace since yesterday. If it still does have a circulation, then that center is passing well south of Puerto Rico at present. Observations across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico have not indicated any strong winds. Wind reports are less than 20 mph across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Models are still quite split on where Grace will go over the coming week. Much will depend on its status over the next 24-48 hours. If Grace remains weaker, which it appears is more likely, then it will stay farther south. This means that the center may be interacting with both the Dominican Republic and Cuba over the next 72 hours. Such an interaction would keep Grace weak, likely a tropical depression or a remnant low pressure system like Fred until it passes Cuba on Thursday morning. Our forecast is for Grace to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning near western Cuba. Models are in good agreement on high pressure building across the southern U.S. and northern Gulf later this week. This should keep Grace on a more westerly track rather than allowing it to turn toward the northern Gulf Coast. Such a track could mean an eventual landfall in northeast Mexico or south Texas by late next Sunday. The next big question concerns Grace's intensity later this week. Assuming it does not lose its circulation over Cuba, then conditions across the Gulf in its path would allow for steady strengthening up until landfall. It is possible that Grace could become a hurricane by next Friday or Saturday, though we are not indicating hurricane strength in this forecast. Possible Impacts Inland U.S. and British Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico: Limited impacts today. No tropical storm-force sustained wind, though tropical storm wind gusts may accompany any passing squalls, causing scattered power outages. Hispaniola: Flash flooding and mudslides are expected. Power outages are also expected tonight and Monday.
Can we get some storm names that weren't popular 100 years ago? Maybe use the most popular baby names from the previous year, but have a moratorium to not use the same ones again for 10 years? https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/
We got some of the outskirts of Fred and may get a bit more. Nothing major. Had a much worse storm Tuesday evening.
We're getting hard rain here in Houston. I'll take it over a hurricane. I hope State of Grace stays away from us, selfish as that may be to the unfortunates in its path (but track, intensity, all that, are up in the air...uh, literally).
