[ESPN+] Rockets Draft Top 2 Players in Stats-Only Model (& neither are named Jalen)

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/st...ranking-top-30-prospects-based-stats-scouting

tldr; Usman is awesome, and Sengun's stats-only projection ranks behind only Luka and The Brow.

1. Alperen Sengun
Center | Besiktas
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 4.2 WARP

This year's top-rated prospect won't surprise anyone who's followed Sengun's domination of the Basketball Super League in his native Turkey. At age 18 (he turned 19 on Sunday), Sengun led the league with 8.9 WARP, nearly 3.5 more than any other player. He was chosen as MVP, producing the third-best stats-only projection in my database behind Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis.

It's understandable that scouts question whether that production will entirely translate. Sengun's stats-only projection is in the same ballpark as DeJuan Blair and Kenneth Faried, who enjoyed solid careers as role players but were never NBA stars. Still, there's little precedent for anyone as productive as Sengun truly failing as a pro.

3. Jalen Green
Guard | G League Ignite
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 12

Consensus: 2.7 WARP

For a teenager competing against players shuttling back and forth from the NBA, Green held his own as part of G League Ignite, an encouraging sign for his long-term prospects. He rated as an above-average player in the G League thanks to efficient scoring (.592 true shooting) while using 23% of Ignite's plays. Green just misses the stats-only top 10.


8. Usman Garuba
Forward | Real Madrid
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

Garuba was a key contributor for Real Madrid in EuroLeague and ACB competition last season as a teenager. Among draft prospects, only Rokas Jokubaitis saw more EuroLeague minutes. Because of his quality teammates, who included NBA veterans Rudy Fernandez and Anthony Randolph, Garuba has the lowest projected usage rate among prospects in the top 80. He's ready to fill a role with his strong rebounding (projected second only to Sengun) and defense.
---
full text:

 

Yeah i think it's a typo in that second paragraph on Segun and he means to say "scouts-only" projection is in the same ballpark as Faried. Here were the top 2 overall a couple of years ago, I could live with projected wARP between these two:


1. Zion Williamson

Duke
PF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 5.2 WARP

When I took a detailed look at Zion's projection in late February, I suggested he could catch Anthony Davis for the best college projection in my database with a strong finish to the season. Alas, the MCL sprain Williamson suffered in the opening minutes of that night's game against North Carolina ruled out that possibility. Nonetheless, Zion will be the highest-rated player in this year's draft and second to Davis overall.

2. Ja Morant

Murray State
PG
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7

Consensus: 3.3 WARP

After leading Murray State to the Ohio Valley Conference title and the NCAA tournament, Murray has emerged as the No. 2 prospect in our top 100. That's also where my consensus projections put him. It helps that though Morant is a sophomore, he's young for his class -- just three weeks older, for example, than Duke freshman Cam Reddish. Morant also projects as an elite playmaker. He has the best projected assist rate of any player in our top 100.
---