Depending on what is used as the baseline, Toro has already provided $5M-$8M in value for Seattle (having put up 0.8 fwar). If he turns out to be a perennial 3 win player, he will have likely provided over $100M in surplus value for the Mariners in exchange for half a season of a RP.
And he was not going to get that everyday opportunity in Houston for at least 2 years... unless Bregman is damaged goods and Yuli is out for the year. He's still got a long way to go in terms of development and making adjustments to the league (once they adjust to him) to expect that sort of production.
I think it could—if all goes well for SEA—be like the Chapman/Gleybar Torres swap a few years ago. If Toro becomes a HOFer that means that every team missed on him. I’d call the Baggy trade a once in a lifetime type deal, but we also landed Yordan for Fields, so you never know...
I dunno, Graveman's been out there twice and I can't even enjoy it because of all that possible surplus value we're missing out on.
Surplus value championships often lead to “other” championships; there has been talk of trading Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, Garcia, and Valdez in win-now moves in past seasons and where would Houston be now if they’d made those moves? Flags fly forever rah rah rah, but any fan who thinks it’s a good idea to give up $100M in value for a 1/2 season of a reliever is stupid.
He did have a similar run when he was called back up on June 17. First 6 games he hit .417/.462/.667 2BB 2K 2HR in 26PA. First 7 games with the Mariners he has hit .440/.500/.920 2BB 2K 3HR in 28PA. We'll see if he can keep it up. He's definitely looked good and getting consistent playing time might be all he needs
Gotta give up things to get things, and this is one of those deals that benefits both teams. I'm just more concerned with the actual now than the hypothetical future. And I may be stupid.
Toro likely needed to be traded now or in the off-season given that he's blockedI think trading Toro for a rental reliever is okay, but it's too bad Click couldn't wrangle a younger, high ceiling/high risk prospect out of Seattle to go along with Graveman to make the deal a little more fair in terms of value exchanged between each side. Click is making a habit out of overpaying for relievers he's keen on.
Seems like almost every player Houston exposes to waivers gets claimed. I think Martes is the only guy that wasn’t claimed in the last 2 seasons.
I hated to see Toro go. Most of us know that Seattle got an absolute valuable piece for their core. Of course Seattle made a dog and pony show about how they gave a way a stellar player for a journey man. Here in Houston we all knew it was a win-win for both teams. But of course Seattle is gonna enjoy Toro for a long time, and we’ll be luck to make a deep run for one season with our return. But having a weak bullpen while in the mist of a stellar season requires bitter pills to swallow, if real improvements are to be made.
I just don’t think he enjoys the now as much… and Toro’s WAR estimates only work out if he’s truly an everyday player, which if he were to be on this team next year or the year after, that would indicate that something happened to the current projected (higher WAR) starters.
You’ve readily admitted that you over-value him. Especially since none of your projections are applicable to being a starter with the Astros barring something unforeseen. Could he have been traded for more players/value? Probably… but either Click wanted Graveman moreso than other available relievers (including Kimberly) based on cost and ability for them to get rid of Smith, or he wanted to consummate a deal before the prices started to rise (which they seemingly did). They definitely needed an upgrade in the relievers… and they ended up with an elite one.
If we fail to re-sign Correa (which I think most of assume), why wouldn't he have an every day opportunity? Diaz is very capable, but can't stay on the field, and given Diaz's flexibility in the field, he'd be the preferred bench option rather than every day SS.
Astros (or maybe the Rays) would have to swap teams with Seattle for Seattle to win the Surplus Value Champions Trophy.
They don't consider Bregman or Toro as a SS. If they fail to retain Correa, I see them going more for defense at the position vs. a guy with more of a bat. If they did foresee Toro/Bregman as a SS/Correa replacement, they'd probably have traded somebody else (with club control) for Graveman.
