You're confusing winning football games and money. There is a chance that Baylor and TCU could win games, but there is no way in hell that a conference with these two schools as your top draw will ever get close to 35 million a year in TV revenue. They will be lucky to get 10 million without OU and Texas. AAC teams get 5 million a year. Why do you think UH has been clamoring to get into the Big 12 all these years.
AAC deal is 7 per. It will be interesting to see what ESPN gives the Big 12 after UT/OU leave (assuming they survive and retool).
So the guys that aren't good enough to get consistent playing time at top programs will suddenly make the talent at other schools even out? I'll admit that I'm not completely up-to-date on all of the new transfer guidelines (for instance, I know Texas' basketball team is stacked with transfers now but I haven't had the time to read up on how they were able to get so many new players), but I don't think your scenario would generate parity. Individual players have different motivations for attending different schools, but it can be harmful for NFL prospects to bounce around teams, receive inconsistent coaching, etc. @gucci888's point about TV/media rights money still holds, too. Where is Texas Tech, a public institution, going to get the money to stay on par with these other conferences if the Big 12's TV rights renewal dramatically lessens their athletic budget? Where are they going to find the funds to hire the coaches who "want to compete for titles" if they simply don't have the cash on hand to pry away a guy making more to be an OC at Auburn? The problem with your assumption is that it relies a lot on individual dominos - inconsistent NIL deals from local companies, individual and unpredictable transfers from other schools, a recruiting pitch that rests on winning a lesser conference with worse broadcast times and longer travel distances - falling into place. One of OU's big reported problems with the Big 12's current TV deal is the 11 am kickoffs on FOX. FOX reportedly refused to change the time for the upcoming Oklahoma/Nebraska game, a geographic and historic rivalry lost during the last round of realignment, and that was one of the final straws for OU. Your plan would be a hodgepodge of Civil ConFLiCT rivalries where the only thing binding teams together (Minnesota, Nebraska, Ole Miss, etc.) would be competing for a Big 12 championship that pays less money, has less eyeballs and maybe loses its automatic qualifier status in the process. I'm not so sure about that. I think we're both factoring in changes but coming to completely different conclusions I don't think that top recruit is going to Mizzou or TCU. If they're good enough to play for a top SEC team, they'll go there and get paid like Bryce Young while receiving top-tier coaching and reps instead of selling used cars in Stillwater. Comparing the world of 2010, or pre-Saban Alabama, to now is apples to oranges. I've never thought that ESPN would renew LHN and I've often wondered how much they kick themselves for starting the deal in the first place. Love your username btw. Real throwback.
You're talking about money now, not 20 years from now.... they would have to accept being a weaker conference for now and build it up. UH is almost as big as UT, they just don't have the oil money in their endowment. I also think you neglect the importance recruits will put on getting paid. Sitting as a backup for 3 years in the SEC doesn't get you paid... sooner you start sooner you get your appearance fees and radio gigs...
I don't disagree with your point, just to the degree. If the SEC gets the top guys every year then the new ones are blocked by the old ones. Sure, you could see car dealers in Tuscaloosa paying 10 grand for the 3rd string tackle to sign autographs, but it won't be as common as you may think. The more you get on the field the more cash off the field you can make and that will balance some of the recruiting out like never before... In the long run the gap in talent the SEC has will shrink. They may get the top of the top still, but the difference between 4 star and 5 star is just an opinion and playing time affects development.
As far as Tech, they have a booster who might be the richest person in Texas under 40... sold land in Permian Basin for 2.8 billion with an investment partner. Baylor's got the Drayton and Chip/Joanna money rolling in... UH has Tilman until another pandemic hits... My plan would be to look at the Missouri, Arkansas, Nebraska, Iowas, etc. expecting most if not all to say no. There could be one that decides strategically in the long run they could be better off. I think adding UH, SMU, and Rice are an easy yes from them. That would put half the league within about a 6 hour drive of each other. A league that looks like this: Baylor TCU SMU Texas Tech OSU Kansas Kansas State Houston Rice Iowa State Iowa Nebraska Add: Houston, SMU, Rice, Iowa, Nebraska Lose: Oklahoma, Texas, and West Virgnia Wouldn't look so bad... I think that's 6-7 middle of the road football programs. Iowa may be a long shot but they may consider it. The Big 10 they flirt with competing but I don't think anyone expects them to beat out Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Michigan regularly... they also run a risk of Notre Dame joining if they expand. Again, less money now, but they can recoup some of that later... There's also the possibility enough donors step up for a nice cash prize (10-50 million a year?) to the champion to incentivize a better team to join thinking they could be the new OU in the conference. Baylor, Kansas, and Houston are all great basketball programs now. Kansas State and Iowa State have some good years occasionally. Maybe they turn to a BYU and someone else in the mountain region? They flirted with Cincinnati and a couple of other schools not long ago... I doubt Kentucky would leave their easy basketball conference but maybe Memphis or Louisville depending on numbers...
One other thing to ponder... How many recruits do you think Baylor gets if they get to be on Chip and Joanna's show? A lot of these recruits are thinking about their brand and marketing as much or more than the game itself... schools will get creative connecting athletes to sponsors... Makes me think about the impact free agency had on the Yankees... for a long time they didn't compete... their best stretch was developing their own guys in the 90s and that was 20 years later... You don't see the Yankees winning 5 titles in a row anymore... that could be Alabama with players getting paid now and wanting that playing time for the cash...
Is this what Baylor's recruiting pitch is now? Come be on the The Magnolia Network? Why would Nebraska / Iowa / Arkansas / Missouri leave conferences not in turmoil for a conference in turmoil?
Baylor always lives in people’s head rent free for some reason. There are 7 other programs that will be also looking for a new home. Baylor has good student athletes, top notch facilities that are about to get better (new arena + outdoor football complex). All we can do is focus on ourselves and continue to win on the field and court.
They wouldn’t. This would be a greatly improved AAC but it’s not going to poach a single team from the big 10 or SEC and that’s fine as long as the last 8 teams start cutting costs and saving some money for the new reality.
Baylor doesn't have Ann Richards to save their ass this time. Maybe Baylor finds a fit, but it will be hard and I don't see it being in the Big X or the SEC. That leaves the PAC, which is an odd fit and the ACC... who could take BU, but would likely be as interested in UH with the Houston market or possibly TCU. Baylor is in the same spot about 10-15 programs are in now, and that isn't an easy place to be.... too good for the minor conferences, but not in the larger conferences either... ask Cincinnati and Houston how it feels to be stuck.
Very true....... excellent timing... in a smaller conference BU can still dominate in college basketball. The larger concern is going to be football.... UH and others have shown a mediocre conference can still host strong programs.
It could be the rapes and murders and Footloose culture. But seriously, I really hope yall and TCU find a good landing spot.
I saw someone talking about how BU is actually a good culture fit for the ACC and after looking closer I tend to agree. Boston College (Jesuit), Wake Forest (Baptist), Duke (Methodist), Syracuse (Methodist), Notre Dame (Catholic). That being said, geographically it's a nightmare and Baylor has the same problem as the rest of the G5... they don't increase the pie.
