Toro projects to be worth ~7 war over the next 4.5 seasons. Factoring in arbitration salaries and valuing 1war at $10M, he has at least $30M in surplus value. Like I said, I like adding Graveman, but is he worth $30M for half a season?
Shouldn't we factor in Toro's replacement for the 4 years after Graveman? There should be some value there as well.
If we found out later that with the middle relief as bad as it is, that Click had the opportunity to get a reliever with a 0.82 ERA for Toro, and turned it down...we would be cussing him out. Solid relievers aren't just going to fall out of the sky. It is going to cost something. It cost the Astros a utility infielder, who likely has a solid MLB career in front of him. For crying out loud it's not like we traded Bregman or a top prospect for the guy. Folks will complain about anything.
Not sure how you mean, but whoever they replace Graveman with will come with a cost of some sort. I’m just assessing Toro’s value and what that means for how Graveman was valued.
The same fans who say stuff like this (“we need to win! Prospects don’t mean ****! Look at Gravemans ERA!!!”) are the same fans who will rain down insults on Click the minute Graveman gives up a run, and who will whine and whine when the Astros window closes because they traded away all their good young players.
Its not a given that Toro will be an everyday player. For every Hernandez there are 2-3 Derek Fishers. In the end, the Astros aren't projected to have a set spot for him at 3B or 1B for at least the next 2 years, so he was clearly a trade candidate. Knowing that, should they have gotten more for him? Hard to say. He's had his first run of extended AB's since the Bregman injury. The occasional pop is nice. Switch-hitting adds versatility. His defense hasn't been sound. Could he improve all, certainly... but will need to be on a team that can afford to let him do so (not necessarily the Astros).
Who’s this Toro guy y'all talking about? Oh the guy that hit a HR against our closer last night. LOL C’mon guys, our bullpen is so shitty and we’re concerned about losing a utility player in exchange for a reliever with a sub 1 ERA. We’re in this to win the WS this year. If he’s become an all-star, great for him. All I know is we just increased our chances to win the WS after yesterday’s trade. More trades to come!!!
The Astros would not be able to get Toro plate appearances to obtain that surplus value. There is some risk that Toro doesn't work out. The Astros are a great team with specific wants and constraints that affects the trades they can make. Being able to include Smith such that they get breathing room in budget under the CBT threshold as well as possibly opening up a 40-man roster spot if Montero is traded/cut have value to the Astros that aren't captured in a surplus value analysis. Most teams trading away a rental want more control than Toro has (i.e., they don't think they will be good soon) which limits the opportunity cost that is lost by trading him. The Astros are at a point in their competitive cycle that getting value where and when they want it is more important than trying to make trades solely on surplus value in a vacuum. They should still do their due diligence to try to make the deal (or not make a deal) that obtains them the most value for their circumstance. The trade helps the Astros, and it is doubtful the Astros could have done better for Toro with the constraints/wants/plate appearances available they have.
Team needed another reliable arm in the bullpen, desperately. Figured Toro was the best option in a trade.
That all boils down to giving Click the benefit of the doubt in both his valuation of Graveman/Toro and his ability to extract max value from Toro. Which is a totally reasonable opinion.
This. I never really though of Toro as a potential main trade chip for someone like Graveman. I've expected he would be included as a second piece in a trade, traded for a low level prospect that didn't need to be on the 40-man, or a middle reliever with some control for a while. This trade is weird.
I think it was a fair deal. The talent of Toro is obvious but for some reason he just hasn't put it together. The Mariners get a guy entering his prime under team control for years if he pans out. He can play multiple spots in the field and is a solid athlete. The problem is that this deal didn't happen in a vacuum and the M's were pushing for the playoffs. As for the Astros, this was a win. They could afford to lose Toro long term and Graveman is a high end reliever with high end stuff that is needed in the playoffs, which is exactly what the Astros needed. He has the stuff to get anyone out.... when compared to someone like Brad Hand that struggles some with his stuff in pressure spots. It also has a cascade impact as it moves everyone down in the pen pecking order other than Pressly.
Kendall Graveman is needed to get big outs against the top of the order batters. Late game situation the Setup Men and Closer need solid outs. Power Pitcher like Graveman and Montero are going to boost the Astros Players Confidence late in Games.
Let's wait and see what the cost of other bullpen arms is....... and don't just look at era/FIP of the relievers but the actual quality of the stuff they have.... because in the ALCS and WS, in the 7-9th inning, the quality of stuff really starts to matter. Graveman isn't Brad Hand..... Graveman has a sinker that is VERY heavy that is difficult to drive and it comes up at 98-99 mph.... he compliments it with a 90 mph slider that looks like a change up and breaks late. That slider has really been good this season.
He reminds me a bit of Blake Treinen -- finally put it together and then it looks like he's engaging in witchcraft out there. Another possible factor - the Astros 40 man roster stiuation is a bit tight. I haven't looked at the post-season numbers, but does trading Toro free up a spot that otherwise might have forced a decision on a Jake Meyers type?
Nope, it was a 2 for 2 swap on the 40 man. It's closer to 500k the Astros save depending on which incentives Graveman reaches. Montero is making 2.25 million for the season.
