Yep. As someone else mentioned, this could be the beginning of the end for the NCAA if it happens. Also something that I think is long overdue. What does the NCAA actually add to college football at this point, besides arcane rules that are out of touch and don't really apply in today's college environment?? Just like the discussion on how conferences would fare if the top two schools left...what would the NCAA have if say the SEC and Big 10 left? Div 1AA?? This could be one of the big reasons the SEC powers that be might be most in favor of this move...to give them the total clout to do that.
It's a little more complicated than that because the B12 produces revenue too - it was $37MM/school in 2019-2020, so UT made more in the B12+LHN than SEC schools were making. But that said, it's likely more about future revenue and the B12 isn't likely to keep pace. And in 2025, when the media grants lockup go away, there might be poaching anyway, so it's better to get ahead of the curve. There are rumors that A&M, Mizzou, and Arkansas don't want expansion. If they can find a fourth (or SEC decides they don't want to piss off 3 conference members), the SEC rejecting TX/OU would be hilarious. If that happens, TX/OU have a few options - beg forgiveness from the B12 (unlikely), make a power play to demand concessions from the B12 to stay (seems in character), or bolt to the Pac12/Big10. It would be interesting to see what happens in that scenario.
I don't think the B12 has really ever been excluded outside of that TCU/Baylor mess. It seems like the Pac12 is the one always struggling for relevance, but OU/TX will always get the benefit of the doubt if they are near the top 4. Going forward if TX/OU bolt, certainly the Big12 is almost definitely going to be excluded until expansion happens. Even an undefeated team is likely to get treated like an AAC undefeated., deserved or not.
Easiest path to (potentially ever-expanding) playoffs is secondary to making the most money possible.
The $15M is from LHN alone, not their total tv revenue which combined is more than what SEC schools are currently getting. In fact, I'm not sure how much more UT stands to make from tv revenue with this move, if any. To me, this is about stability and getting out in front of realignment and the inevitable super conference. There is a finite amount of money networks can spend and they are going to spend it on the biggest brands. So if you aren't at the top, you're at the mercy of fighting over what is left. So yes it is about money, it always is, but this just isn't about getting a quick pay day. Like I said, I'm not sure UT actually makes it out better from a tv revenue standpoint with this move, not right away at least. Recruiting and NIL are factors as well. As for A&M's move, it was relatively swift once it got rolling and the consensus so far seems that it'll be the same for UT/OU. Assuming the SEC votes them in, they could be playing in the SEC as soon as 2022 just by paying the rest of the conference out essentially. The amount isn't astronomical but I think they are betting on the league disbanding thus not having to pay anything.
Big 12 officials have discussed a structure in which Texas and Oklahoma would receive additional revenue shares as a way of enticing the two schools to remain in the conference rather than pursue a future in the SEC, conference sources have told CBS Sports. Such a structure would grant the Longhorns and Sooners an additional half-share annually (1.5 shares each), bumping their payouts to approximately $56 million per year. The other eight schools would decrease their payouts accordingly. Big 12 schools currently average $37 million in annual TV rights earnings, including revenue from bowl games and the NCAA Tournament. The topic became a discussion point Thursday night during the conference call with Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby. Texas and Oklahoma were not part of the call. One person familiar with the conversation stressed the revenue share idea was "from the 50,000-foot level" and preliminary in nature. While the Big 12 revenue play may be a longshot, league sources tell CBS Sports that the conference hasn't given up on keeping Texas and Oklahoma in the fold. Retaining UT and OU was the first stated goal in a summary provided by the Big 12 following that Thursday night conference call. AAC commissioner Mike Aresco has worked tirelessly in recent years to get the “Power 6” moniker to stick. He has championed his coaches and top teams, and he (rightfully) trashed the College Football Playoff selection committee for its mistreatment of Cincinnati last fall. He has tried to show the rest of college football that the American belongs at the table with the big boys. Now he has a prime opportunity to do something else about it. With Oklahoma and Texas expected to inform the Big 12 of their impending departure for the SEC on Monday, speculation over what will happen to the Big 12’s leftovers has already begun. Presidents and athletic directors from the eight remaining schools met via conference call on Thursday and discussed trying to stick together — noting that they are bound by the grant-of-rights agreement through 2025 — and even going so far as to discuss potential expansion. The list of candidates could include AAC members such as Cincinnati and UCF, as it did the last time the Big 12 explored expansion in 2016. But it’s also not clear that those schools would add significant value to the Big 12. The league would essentially be adding bodies, not value. What has become apparent over the past 48 hours is that the AAC does not expect to sit back and wait for its best teams to field interest from elsewhere. The AAC plans to act as an aggressor, multiple high-ranking sources within the conference tell The Athletic. It will try to poach the Big 12’s leftovers, perhaps as a group. Imagine a western division that includes Baylor, Oklahoma State, TCU and/or Iowa State. Toss those teams into a league with Cincinnati, UCF and SMU, and you’d have some really, really good football. In less than a decade, thanks to Houston’s Peach Bowl win over Florida State, UCF’s back-to-back undefeated regular seasons and Cincinnati’s top-seven CFP ranking last year, the AAC has established itself as the top football-playing league outside of the Power 5. Since its inception in 2013, the AAC has had the same number of AP Top 25 finishes (16) as the Big 12 has gotten from schools not named Oklahoma or Texas. “The Big 12 appears to be weakened and in a state of panic because their two anchor schools are gone and can’t be replaced,” one AAC source said Friday night. “I do think we can be an aggressor. I feel like our league is pretty stable. After Oklahoma and Texas officially declare their intention to leave the Big 12, the source expects the remaining eight schools to gauge interest from the Pac-12. The AAC could get its own crack at the eight leftovers if the Pac-12 opts against making any additions, or it could try to grab whoever is left if the Pac-12 does pick off a few. Multiple sources believe Aresco, the AAC commissioner, is committed to trying such a tactic. And it makes total sense from the AAC standpoint. This is a league that has been pushing for respect and a seat at the table alongside the Power 5 conferences. Being an aggressor and potentially adding members would also better position the AAC to gain autonomy in the NCAA legislative process, as the Power 5 leagues have. Back in May, prior to news of a potential 12-team College Football Playoff that would include access for all 10 FBS leagues, the AAC’s Board of Directors sent an eight-page letter to the Autonomy 5 (the official name of the Power 5) conferences to request that the AAC be included as an autonomy conference, a designation which it felt it was “unreasonably” excluded from. This has been the case since 2014, when Division I voted to allow the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC the ability to adopt legislation for their own membership only in specific areas. One source believes that the AAC’s relationship with ESPN should help, assuming the league can pull in a few teams and get up to a 16-team conference. “We’ve already got ESPN at the table,” the source said, adding that it would be easier to engage media partners for a league that has one exclusive partner (plus a small package of games on CBS/CBS Sports Network). The AAC’s deal with ESPN, signed in March 2019 and now in effect, is worth $1 billion over 12 years and pays each AAC school just under seven million dollars annually. It’s easy to see why the source believes ESPN would be a willing partner to renegotiate if the 11-member AAC is able to significantly add to its offerings. Perhaps, for those Big 12 schools, a move to the AAC would seem like a downgrade. But as college athletics enters a period of instability, a stable home should be more attractive than ever. Can the AAC provide it? Will the league raid to avoid being raided? It’d certainly be wise to try. A larger, autonomous AAC would go far beyond Aresco’s initial vision for this league, bigger and better than being a “Power 6” conference. It’d be, officially, one of the big boys.
A system built on a couple of big-dollar programs and too many small revenue teams is one destined to fail. Offering to pay Texas/OU more money is divisive and leads to resentment. And the high revenue schools shouldn't be faulted for leaving to maximize their own situation instead of having to share with programs that don't bring as much to the table.
Agreed - once they lost Nebraska, A&M, and Colorado, the conference was always doomed to fail. It was just a matter of when. The only way to save the conference was dealing with the resentment before the other big schools left and having a healthier base back then.
Yes, but the two go hand in hand. Getting into the playoffs generates money that year, and recognition which generates money in the future, as well as recognition outside of athletics. It is why schools (not the players, the schools) want to be national champions in the first place.
I can't help but feel like this is mostly just a power play by ESPN to weaken a competitor (FOX). The question is just how destructive is this going to be. The primary objective has been achieved, but I'm curious if ESPN is going to push to get the Big 12 refugees into the AAC (a league which they already own). Disney's endgame feels like it will be owning the entire "elite" level of college football, top to bottom.
