Chris Bosh, who is a lot of people's comp for Evan Mobley, in his best season in the NBA, averaged 24 points and 11 rebounds a game. This was during a time period in which the NBA was transitioning from a bigs league to a guard league. Obviously, Bosch was never able to carry a team by himself. He was a great player that any team would be proud to have on their roster, but he was nothing better than second fiddle on a championship team. That would be great to add with the number two pick, but when you're in a full rebuild, you have to swing for the fences. That's what Jalen Green is. He could end up being Jason Richardson, or he could end up being Kobe Bryant as some of the more fanatical people say. In my opinion, you have to swing for the fences and take that gamble. Now, I know it's a different League now, but Christian Wood's stats last year we're not that far off of Chris Bosh's. Could Christian Wood be that second fiddle that you could build around? I think so. I'm not one for not taking a player because you have a similar player on the roster already, but I think when there's talent that could be transcendent at a position more of need, you go with that talent. Having a Chris Bosh like player as your franchise cornerstone may do nothing but have you treading water until you can find that first tier cornerstone. Knowing that we already have somebody Bosh-esque, it's time to swing for that first year cornerstone. This is all ignoring the fact that we have KPJ. If he can keep his head on straight, he becomes another cornerstone building block. I also am not as high on Tate as I am on Martin Jr. I think Martin Jr can develop into something special. Basically, what I'm trying to say is, I think there are two or possibly three decent building blocks for franchise on this roster already. I don't think that Mobley, who I love as a prospect, moves the needle enough even if he hits his full potential. I think that Green is a swing for the fences draft pick, and one that you have to make at this point in a rebuild. That being said I'm still thrilled that we are in this spot and did not have to give up our pick. Any of those three guys are going to make me real excited, and I can't wait to see which one we land. I doubt you could do this, but the other option I would explore is to let Cleveland make that decision for you. Offer something like number two, number 24, and Eric Gordon for number three, and unprotected first in next year's draft, and an expiring contract.
Good overall analysis. Thoughts that bounce around in my head: I think both Mobley and Green are swing for the fence type picks. However, Mobley gives the extra benefit of filling a position of scarcity, which opens up more options for acquiring players and roster building now and in the future. Just as a small example(not a main reason, but it applies also to trades and free agency as well), I think it is likely that the best players left at 23 and 24 will be guards. It probably wouldn't make much sense just because of opportunity for minutes to go BPA in that situation if we go Green. I'm a little concerned that even if Green turns out great, Houston will still be putting G-League scrubs into their rotation or playing severely undersized again. It seems much easier to unearth guard and wing gems from that avenue, not bigs.
Swing for the fences & “take that gamble” = Mobley 3 true outcomes in baseball: walk, strikeout or home run. There ain’t no walking here (maybe unless they trade back) Mobley you could hit a home run or strike out. Green you could hit a home run or say at worst, hit a double. Swing & hit, WOW! (Superstar? DPOY?) Swing & miss, bust? (Can’t put on weight? Shot/offense doesn’t come around? Defense is just “OK”? Wow, we passed on _____ for this?!) Green swing & hit, WOW! (Superstar? Face of the franchise/league? 25-30 PPG?) Green swing & miss, at worst still a good scorer? (Solid role player? 6th man? 15-20 PPG?)
Love hearing everyone compare Jalen Green to the next Jordan, Bryant, the Big O…..personally I think Jason Richardson is too nice a comparison. Watch the tapes, he is a “nothing” player who doesn’t effect the games he plays in in any positive manner excep he gets his points. His teams typically do better with him on the bench. He doesn’t take games over….just gets his points and stays out of the frackus. Draft Mobley….at least he’ll hustle on D and get some nice blocks. Suggs is the best of the three guys, but we just don’t have an open position for him as it’s vital that KPJ develops into a point guard as that’s his best position.
He just turned 19. So you don’t think with NBA coaching he won’t improve ? Nobody walks into the league a finished product. Not saying he’s Kobe but look at Kobe’s flaws when he was a 19 yr old.
Mobley maxed out: Not really a good single player comp (Gobert/Adebayo mix on D with 20 ppg and 4 assists?) Green maxed out: Lavine or Beal; Kobe lite Suggs maxed out: Chauncey Billups or Jason Kidd Mobley floor: poor man's Lamarcus Aldridge? Green floor: No-D Latrell Sprewell Suggs floor: Rotational guard
It's important that we hit on the #2 pick, with borderline all-star as a baseline. However, we also have to remember/realize that this team will suck again next year and, most likely, again the year after that. So if Mobley is drafted and becomes the next Chris Bosh, Stone still has (probably high) lottery picks for the next two years (at least) to find his alpha. We are going through our own Process.
I think the odds of Mobley reaching the potential discussed (Durant / Giannis comparisons) are extremely remote .... Mainly because Mobley's offensive game has so much further to develop. Yeah , in a perfect world he becomes some mix of KD / Giannis / AD offensively ..... but the NBA isn't a perfect world and he's light years away in terms of development on that end of the court.
I'm not confident in this current roster being able to do much more than 28 wins next year if that. (+11 is a big leap). But I do believe there are a couple players on this team that could find a place in the rotation on just about every team in the league and those players (Wood , Tate & Martin) all have the potential to get significantly better than they were last season. I'm not sold that KPJ is a star in the making - but the potential is there. Other than those 4 players & Olynyk assuming he stays ..... the rest of the roster is underwhelming & most of them belong in the G league.
Maxed out green is not Lavine or Beal. Green is more athletic than either of them. Lavine can jump but he's not quick. Green has elite quickness. If Lavine had Green's quickness, that's a 30 PPG scorer
Maxed out Mobley is a wing imo. He can definitely develop his ball handling and become an initiator from the perimeter. Like a giant Toni Kukoc with elite defense. That's maxed out though but I think his defense at least gives him a decent floor because he can easily guard the perimeter even today.
I love Mobley and really want the Rockets to select him but I am not buying his ability to play on the wing. I am no expert, but to me he just moves like a big and not a wing. Would love to be wrong because if he projected to anything like what we have seen from Giannis then he would be the guy one would assume.
I didn't want to pull out the "G" word because we just saw him completely dominate a finals series and I believe that he's a once in a generation talent. Buuuut if we're projecting the absolute BEST case for Mobley, like the go buy a lottery ticket today best case, I could see him becoming something like that. Just watching him move even without the ball was unusual, at least to me, for someone his size. What we don't know is the extent of his motor because he's going to have to be borderline obsessive, much like Giannis is, if he's ever to reach that level. I'm not opposed to gambling on it though because, in my eyes, we're starting with pretty much a blank slate so I'm all for swinging for the fences. I still think that 2022 is much much much better than now so I don't mind letting Mobley figure it out all year. That said though I definitely wouldn't mind taking Green either because I think that his motor is more well established but on pure ceiling, which is what I prioritize right now, I'm on Mobley.
He has a body type similarity to Bosh, but taller. That's about it. Bosh was more polished in the post. Better footwork. Mobley-a better defender. I'm sticking with a modern day young Camby. Either way, i understand and agree with your take. Green has the highest ceiling for a perimeter player dominated league. This was a really weird post season. Some games with zero defense high scoring games and some games resembling 90s/00's ugly and physical playoff games. With game 7 being more on the physical side where size won, people are naturally going to be higher on drafting a big again. The other games were high scoring games with Khris Middleton being the most crucial player down the stretch for the Bucks. Giannis is too unique of a player to hope for and Mobley is nothing like him so there's no need to get excited. Also remember that Giannis still needed the Nets perimeter stars to be injured and Ayton on the other side was no where to be found in game 6. Star perimeter players is the way to build. So many of the leagues best bigs were drafted late in the lottery or later.
