I see this as a pretty good draft. It IS top heavy though. That being the case, next year's group with the likely HS crop/GLeague additions is loaded. For us, and other teams who find themselves in the rebuilding phase, it seems a goldmine. So, while I want to use 23 & 24 to move up in to the lottery, if that can't get done for the right price/player...and considering we have control of our pick next year.. Regardless of what we do, I see some big deals coming down the pike across the board for teams positioning towards next year.
I dont think this draft is top heavy at all. I think it is extremely deep I see guys I like even at the end of the first round. Chicago took Patrick Williams no 4 and people thought it ended up being the right pick. His 2021 analogue Zaire Williams has 0 chance to be a lotto and will likely be low 1st if not 2nd round.
I must admit I have guys that I like later too. So, perhaps the best of both worlds. But, next year would seem to be a different deal....tailor made for where we're at.
I think the prevailing wisdom is that the "Double Draft" is unlikely until 2023 at the earliest. There is still a ton of talent in next years draft. Several bigs and a lot of forwards with potential.
The 2021 draft is very strong 1-6 and then from 6-15 it appears to be mediocre.... then in the 20's the draft becomes above average again. There is likely to be 1-2 pretty good players that come out of this draft in the 20's.
This. No reason we can't build a foundation of #2, #23+#24 (late lotto?), KPJ, and Wood... In fact, we should, because, that builds a strong foundation of four young players all under the age of 26 and all on extended deals.
I dont like trading up cuz guys at the bottom can turn out pretty good. Its only worth trading up to get a top 6 pick otherwise its better to stand pat or even trade for more picks in 20s range.
Maybe but I dont like counting chickens before they hatch. Rox already have 3 picks next year anyway, thats plenty.
Is it that 6-15 is really mediocre or that the guys in the 20s all kind of have similar risk and upside to guys in the 6-15 range? Hard to tell if it's that the talent in the 6-15 range is normal in terms of risk/reward and that tier reasonably extends deeper into the 20s than in previous years OR if the talent is relatively weak in the 6-15 range and those guys would be "picking in the 20s" type of talents in other years.
The guys in the 6-15 range are slightly better overall than the guys in the 20's, but only marginally IMO. What I mean is that comparing the talent that is widely viewed as in the 6-15 range of this draft, I view it as weaker than most other talent in the 6-15 range in prior drafts. Overall I think this is a good draft class, but isn't great. There is a lot more boom and bust in this draft than most (outside of the top 5). Look at it like this....... Tre Mann will likely go in the second round, and the difference in his potential and game from someone considered in the 10-15 range really isn't that much....... yet normally the gap between 10-15 and the top of round 2 is massive from a value perspective. Who is a better prospect? Miles McBride or Corey Kispert......... Kispert may go in the lottery, and McBride is every bit as good a prospect. Keon Johnson will be gone by the 8-9th pick in the draft and he is a guard that shot 27% from 3, didn't pass well and only shot 43% from the floor while scoring 11 points a game. He doesn't have a great profile as a shooter in the future either, as he only hit 70% of his attempts. He could be gone as soon as pick 6 in this draft....... he normally would have the upside of going at the END of the lottery or later, but there is a lack of clear cut middle lottery players.
Go get your wings this year and get ready for the big guys next year. Mobley is the clear cut #1 big this year, he would be 3rd or 4th next year. Just sayin'
Thats a solid point - that the opportunity increases next year to grab a relevant big AND we have a trove of future picks to make it happen if the right one is just outside of our reach. I'm on record here of saying you have to prioritize scoring/playmaking guards/forwards when rebuilding because ultimately they are the guys that take slightly above average players and make them seem like far better players by raising their floor. Take PJ Tucker - he is pretty useless offensively but if James Harden is getting him 3 or 4 wide open shots a game, that has a tangible impact on how useful a guy like PJ is for this team because the reality is most of our cap will be spent on our top 2 guys and the rest is going to be how we make $8 mil/yr player play like a $16 mil/year player. You just don't see the same floor raising of teammates happen with bigs unless they are uber elite and Mobley is not that. Trade for Cade.
Hopefully not because then we will be on a treadmill of mediocrity. What Bird in the hand do we have? Why have the Knicks, Orlando, Sacramento not taken that next step when they have multiple drafts of higher picks? It's crazy to think this draft gets us competing for the playoffs?
I can see upside with Cade. I'd be OK with him as a Rocket, I just wouldn't give up very much to move up for him since I view the separation between prospects as negligible. I personally wouldnt do it because I view KPJ as the future at the 1 for us. I often see the BPA argument get boxed into surface level thinking without any attempt at forecasting and roster building. The "fit" argument is valid if you are trying to build a dynastic type of team. You want guys on the same timeline who will develop together and hopefully reach their player apex at the same time. What does two great point guards get you? Redundancy in the roster only adds needs down the line. Commit to your guys - have a clear and concise vision for what you want at each position and go for it. If Cade is the guy, cool then its time to move KPJ since he will not thrive with another ball dominant facilitator on the roster. Im not going to cry if KPJ is gone or anyone else for that matter, I just want to become relevant and competitive ASAP. Sacramento and Chicago are always going BPA and how does that work out for them?
