I am trying to establish what the level of upside is for Green. Cade is probably not realistic at this point so I will focus on Green. Do you think he is a Zach Lavine/Bradley Beal level player or a potential GOAT MJ/Kobe? If he is in the former class, those guys' teams are sub .500. If he is in the latter group, why do you think that?
AS: A 7-footer that can do everything? Evan Mobley, out of USC, 7-footer. Skinny though. 215 lbs. This is one of the more fun, unusual, funky players I’ve watched in a long time. What are your thoughts seeing this freshman phenom? SV: Evan Mobley is one of the most fascinating players I’ve evaluated over the course of 8 years I’ve been doing this. To take people behind the curtain, I lived in LA for 8 years before moving to where I currently live. I’ve seen Mobley from the time he was 15 years old. I’ve seen the growth and trajectory. He was immediately identified as an absolutely elite level prospect from the time he was 15 years old because look at how coordinated he is, the body control, look at all the skill he has, he was burgeoning in terms of a perimeter game very early on and then you kinda watch where the hype train went with Evan Mobley. You started to hear people get more concerned about his lack of assertiveness, his lack of willingness to put his stamp on the game from time to time despite possessing all of these unbelievable physical tools and traits that are just so readily apparent to everyone that watches him play basketball. In the case of Mobley, I never really wavered just because in part it was more the perimeter game and how his game fits where the NBA is going from the big position going forward. Just an unbelievably modern prospect the way his skill set bares itself out on the NBA court. We saw it this year at USC. He carried the team to its best season in like 50 years. Made the Elite 8. Unbelievable year in large part to Evan Mobley. AS: Interesting season for him. Elite shot blocker, good passer, can handle some, will play out on the wing at times and can play down low. He will get pushed around because he is skinny. Let’s talk strengths. Day one, what’s he gonna be able to do? SV: A little bit of everything. Let’s start on defense. Evan Mobley 7’ tall with about a 7’4 wingspan and blocked 3 shots/game this year. So good at using his length to be vertical around the basket. He is just a very intelligent kid and intelligent basketball player. He knows how to use angles. Early in the season, there are clips where you could see the gears were turning in his brain as he was trying to figure out “OK, I need to be here defensively. I need to be here defensively. This is how I react when a guy on the opposite side of the plays runs a PnR, I need to be down into the paint ready to rotate from the weak side.” There were times he got lost and just the length and twitch he has within his frame allowed him to recover and block a shot and start a fast break. It’s ridiculous. He is one of the better recovery players I’ve evaluated. In the NBA, things will break down at some point defensively. Offensive players are too good at making plays to where your defensive scheme will hold for the entirety of a series. Look at the Utah Jazz. Look at the Milwaukee Bucks. At the end of the day, you need to have that recovery speed and Mobley can recover all over the court. Part of the reason he can recover all over the court is because he’s comfortable out on the perimeter. The reason he’s comfortable out on the perimeter is because the way he can flip and rotate his hips. He is absolutely terrific at adjusting to counters that offensive players will present to him. That will happen at a high level in the NBA. NBA guards are as shifty and quick and polished as you will find. Evan Mobley will be able to stick with them, at least for guys at the center position. I don’t quite think he’s as impactful as Anthony Davis was at Kentucky and Davis in the NBA but he’s not far off for that age particularly. Davis has continued to get better and has developed into for my money one of the 3 best defenders in the NBA. It’ll be incumbent on Evan to improve there but the floor Evan is starting from defensively, the ceiling is exceptionally high. He is one of the very, very few players in this draft and last few drafts you can put a DPOY ceiling on. It’s because of the way his game defensively translates to the next level with the ability to play in any PnR coverage, you can play flat, you can blitz ball screens and he can recover because of that recovery speed, he can play drop coverage because he’s so long and mobile and able to cut off angles on drivers. Evan Mobley’s defensive ability, his ceiling is ridiculous. Right now, Usman Garuba is probably the best defender in this class if we’re talking July 29, 2021. In 3 years, because the tools Mobley possesses and the floor he’s starting from, I’d expect that answer to be Mobley. AS: Let’s talk weaknesses. I think a lot of executives will see him walk into a gym and dribble the ball and “Oh my gosh, we have to get that guy!” But there are some things about him that worry me a little bit. When you think of this type of player, you think Anthony Davis and Kevin Garnett. Both of them have this intensity about them that doesn’t stop. The more I watch Mobley, the more I was like “OK, he kinda stops. There are times he disappears a little bit.” To me, that’s his biggest weakness. Have you seen the same thing? SV: In the case of Mobley, talking about the mentality of guys is always hard. Having said that, there are times where Mobley could have stood to be more assertive and aggressive. I think that improved drastically over the course of the year. You go back and watch his NCAA tournament games, he was like “I am the dude on this team. I am going to win. My team is going to win because I take them there.” Watch the PAC12 tournament, same thing. There was a game against Colorado he was completely and thoroughly unstoppable in every regard. I still think at the end of the day he can be more assertive. There was a game in January or early February against Utah, he took 0 FGA. 6 FTs. No circumstance where a guy this skilled, this talented should get let’s say 3 FGA over the course of a game. He had a couple games where he had like 5/6 shots over the course of the season. That’s something he’s gonna have to improve. He has every tool in the book. We didn’t talk about the offense in the strength section but he can create his own shot. He is a center that plays with great flexibility. He’s ambidextrous in terms of the way he can drive. He can drive to his left. Seems he’s more comfortable driving to left half the time anyway. He can bend and like explode around guys while staying in straight line because of that ability to bend and get lower than guys despite being 7’ tall. He’s a very, very talented kid. USC would run dribble handoffs where he was handing the ball off and run dribble handoffs where he was the guy getting the ball and driving. It’s ridiculous what he can do. I would like to see him truly be more assertive. Having said that, because the defense is so good and he’s a really good passer by the way, which will play well at the next level from the big position — you can short roll him, you can run him in dribble handoffs, you can run him all sorts of actions away from the basket — he can average 16/17 a game and still be worth a top 5 pick in this draft, which is unbelievable. That’s the level of all-around skill Evan Mobley has. Having said that, to reach that ceiling, he’ll have to get stronger. You watched Steven Adams for 8 years in OKC. Steven Adams would throw him right now. I look at that, the way that bares itself out on the court more than anything is establishing position. The one real weakness for a guy that will be a defensive anchor in the NBA that Evan Mobley has, I don’t trust him to hold down the defensive glass on a NBA court. He has a chance to be a good rebounder but he’s not there yet. He goes up and tries to high point the ball as opposed to getting a body on someone. We can talk about the level of boxing out in the NBA and how teams don’t do it as often anymore and often times it is the guy who can high point the ball who ends up getting the ball but offensive rebounders like Adams or DeAndre Jordan, who is not awesome anymore but is still physically strong, those guys will be able to toss Evan Mobley around right now. It’ll be incumbent upon him to get stronger. Do what Anthony Davis did over the course from when he was 21 to when he was 25 and enormous and looked like a NBA big man. AS: Let’s talk range for him. I’ve seen him as high as two, as low as four. SV: I’d be stunned if he got below four. Toronto has a enormous gaping hole at the center position. Chris Boucher is a nice story and has emerged as a real NBA player who can make an impact but Mobley is a different level player in terms of prospect and impacting the game in different ways. I know our own James Edwards at The Athletic has reported he’s in the mix at number one for Detroit. Again, if Detroit was to decide on Evan Mobley, they’d trade down. I’d say the range is 2-4. Houston is a team that needs everything. They don’t have a guy that’s there. That kind of infrastructure interests me less for Evan Mobley than it does for other players. I’d like to see him enter a situation that has real veteran leadership that will take him under their wing and “Hey, you gotta get in the gym constantly. You gotta be there. You gotta be assertive. You gotta dominate.” Somewhere like Toronto makes sense. Cleveland, Larry Nance would be great for Mobley. If Cleveland is set on re-signing Jarrett Allen, it’s a terrible idea to draft Mobley. You’re capping yourself out while taking a guy who probably isn’t quite there for a couple years and then spinning your wheels. Toronto is a spectacular fit. I hope he ends up there. If he ends up in Detroit, I like that fit. If he ends up in Cleveland, at least he’d have good guards. If he ends up in Houston, they’d be building around him hopefully and fostering a situation that makes sense.
Thanks for sharing JR, but I disagree with the sentiment that Mobley carried his team during the tourney in some response to his tenacity being questioned during the regular season. Drew Timme manhandled and OWNED Evan Mobley in their game. Mobley was far from "the dude" in that game and he balled up and didnt fight back. I questioned his love for basketball at that precise point. Does he really want to do this as his career? He was a no show vs Kansas and Oregon too. His fans just assume that he will "get it" after X amount of years, and that his game will be easy at the NBA level, but I have my doubts. I dont need practice heroes who run perfect drills. I need guys who will get up for the big games.
I see somewhere in between these two. When I watch him, the variety in the ways that he scores doesn't remind me of Lavine or Beal, it reminds me of Allen Iverson or Earl Monroe. I don't think he has the physical ability to be as unique as giant hands MJ, but I think the combination of his shooting and his elite first step, as well as the vast package (Joey Dorsey) of offensive weapons he exhibits at 19 years old, could be special. Pivots, rip-throughs, post-ups, pullups, turnarounds, various finishes, killer crossovers, etc. The variety and creativity are striking. All of that said, it really kills me that instead of having KPJ and JG in our backcourt, we are going to have to deal with dumbass Wall and Gordon, who will undoubtedly make everything look worse.
vs Kansas: 10 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists with 3 blocks and a steal (USC won 85-51) vs Oregon: 10 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists with 2 blocks (USC won 82-68) I wish he would have scored more in each game. But, to be fair, the Kansas game was over at half time and USC held a 15 point lead for most of the game against Oregon (also: ). Regardless, with Mobley the scoring is going to be behind his defense and his passing.
They lost by 25. Doesn’t change the fact that he performed in a big game. You can’t list plus minus without context. He played 41 mins as well.
I agree with the bolded part. I can see how JG might remind you of those guys but I am just not feeling confident that he will produce like those hall of famers. Not sure Mobley will either but I feel confident that he will be a difference maker on defense.
Against 1 of the best and most advanced teams in the G league. Everyone had a bad +/- that played heavy minutes. The point was, he unloaded the clip in a playoff game.
That kind of does take away from it though, his defense was so poor his team was getting played completely off the court by guys who aren't good enough for the NBA. Him padding his scoring total in a blowout isn't that impressive.
True, but Evan Mobley was not the best player on the court for his team in those games. It was a blessing for him to be able to be surrounded with as much talent as they had, no fault of his own, but it goes in line with some of the effort and desire question marks he has and a direct observation from the analysts in question from the post I quoted just didnt really resonate with me - he doesnt have a killer instinct and is ok with being a secondary player. Im sure his Gonzaga game was not the highlight of his college career either. I dont like that for a guy who is supposed to be reshaping a franchise.
I think that is probably fair. He is a little too California cool perhaps. I am not sure how that effects his draft stock but it obviously turns some people off. I guess I am a believer in him changing the Rockets defense into a strength (along with Martin, Tate and Thomas of course) while being a guy that adds a unique wrinkle to the offense. I could easily see Mobley being Batman on Defense and a very good Robin on offense.
I get the allure of his game. He does alot of things well. "Potential" and "IF" attached to him keeps me at bay. Im just not as hot to trot for defense as some other guys are right now. I understand how important it is and how good PHX and MIL are at defense and all that good stuff, but Mobley will do what to the worst defense in basketball? Move them from 32 to 30? Dont forget how bad we are on offense and IMO a great offense will always beat a great defense in BBall. Add to that Silas is mostly responsible for installing a sound defensive plan himself so if this team is going to get better on defense it goes beyond just adding good defensive players. Besides all the drills, quantifiable metrics, eye test, stat test, etc.. etc.. you MUST find the guy who LOVES the game. Who will LIVE the game. I hear about a guy who half asses plays and entire games, and then he is the guy who is supposed to change our culture and its scary to me. You need to find a leader if you expect this high pick to be part of a renaissance, not just some guy who will try to fit in.
