Furthermore, I would put the range of outcomes for Jalen Green as something like this: Jalen Green Range of Outcomes Worst Case: Gerald Green Base Case: Andrew Wiggins Upside Case: Zach Levine (never played on a winner) Jalen Suggs Range of Outcomes Worst Case: Kyle Lowry (NBA Champion) Base Case: Chauncy Billups (NBA Champion) Upside Case: Jason Kidd with better scoring (NBA Champion)
Jalen Green had just turned 19 years old. KPJ was 21 with a lot more experience and really isn’t a G-League player. And it was one game. Look at their stats for the season. Both played 15 games. Per 36: KPJ: 24.1 pts, 7.3 ast, 6.4 reb, 4.7 TO, 58.2% TS% Green: 20.2 pts, 3.2 ast, 4.6 reb, 3.0 TO, 61.3% TS% Remember, Green was fresh out of high school. This was his first time playing against grown men. He was 18 years old for most of his G-League stint. How much do you think he’d dominate the G-League in two years when he’s 21?
I'm sure he would, my point is that he's got a LONG way to go to even be on KPJ's level....and he'll probably never be on the same level as a passer. The good news is that I think the two would work well side by side...but the downside is that you will have locked in one of the worst defensive backcourts in the league.
LOL, this is stupid.... how many teams later did it take for your second set of "Best Range of Outcomes" to actually get their NBA Chamionships? Even if Jalen Suggs nets a championship, in your likeliest outcomes it wouldn't even be for the Rockets. Kyle was far from Memphis, Billups was written off in Denver, and Jason Kidd was pretty much at the twilight of his career with the Mavs. So dumb.
You really can't tell how competent these guys will be as defenders at their age. Besides elite offensive backcourts don't really need elite defense to go deep in the playoffs. Look at Harden. Look at Booker and old man CP3. Look at Trae. Look at a healthy Harden and Kyrie. Green and KPJ have the potential to be an elite offensive backcourt.
I think the Rockets are the more established franchise than those other teams you mentioned where a young up and comer looking for their first big contract in a big established market might not see a long term future with those other lesser franchises. They have a history of going long term with their high draft picks. There is a reason we as a franchise have a lot of hofers and all-star level guys.
Agreed on the last point no doubt. I'm not trying to run down Green, I'll be thrilled if he's the pick. As of right now I'm leaning Mobley 51-49, when something is that close you have to nitpick to decide where to lean. I think Green and KPJ would be the best scoring backcourt in the league in a few years if not immediately. Green's only weakness on offense I eliminated with KPJ as the primary ball handler and an already efficient and amazing scorer would get more good scoring opportunities.
Yet, one of those guys on the list was a piece to a championship and we still are left with pretty much the #2 pick in this draft. Just because you have HOF talent on your team doesn't mean you will be an automatic champion. None of these players are guaranteed to be HOFers; Suggs, Green or Mobley, it really will just boil down to their work ethic and mentality once they arrive to Houston. That's always something that is debatable pre-draft and we won't truly have a great idea for until year 2-3 in the league.
My point in that post is that the Rockets have more allure for high draft picks to resign with the team after their rookie contract relative to franchises like the Grizzles. Houston is considered a popular destination for NBA players.
Brian Shaw on Jalen Green. 2:20 What can top prospect Jalen Green become down the line? Shaw: In terms of what he could become, the sky’s the limit, and I mean that. I’ve been around some very good players in my over 32 years being around the NBA. The special ones have pretty much something in common in terms of the way that they approach the game, the work ethic, confidence that they play with, and that desire to be great, and to consistently be great by putting in the work. He embodies all of those qualities. He has effortless athleticism on top of that. We’re trying to instill and put into place the footwork, the fundamentals and the things that will be his foundation going forward. I think the combination of that, along with his God-given talent and ability athletically, as well as his knack for being able to score the ball at every different level, from the three-point line, mid-range game. He can post up, even though he has a slight build. He’s a great slasher who can get to the rim and finish with contact or over contact. 10:37 Do you have a player comparison for Jalen Green? Shaw: No. His game is more unique. Each guy here I send clips of different guys that I want them to study their games and pick certain aspects of their game. With Jalen, I’ve sent him video clips and sat with him and watched Penny Hardaway, Kobe Bryant, Paul George, and I think I’ll also show him some footage of Bradley Beal. To me, even though his body type is not like Beal, the ways in which he scores the ball are kind of similar to that, but he has more of the body of a young Penny that I played with in Orlando for three years. He’s not the playmaker and facilitator like Penny, but in terms of that athleticism, length, and the way he attacks on offense reminds me a little bit of his game.
Man I'd hate to be Stone, it's going to be really hard. I feel like you can legit argue any of these guys being the better player...I do think that argument is harder with Suggs though because with Suggs you start going with intangibles "Oh he's a leader...he's a winner..." stuff like that and I honestly can't trust that stuff. If he can't shoot decently and if he can't get past his man than all that 'leader' stuff becomes irrelevant.
KPJ was 20 the entire time he was in the G League last season. So the difference is more 1 to 1 and 1/2. But, you know, accuracy matters.
I don't even think KPJ is that bad of a defender. He isn't targeted for his bad defense, he's just not a plus on the defensive end. At a star level elite defense is a bonus, whereas offense is a necessity. Trae Young is a horrible defender and yet played in lineups with Lou Will and Gallo against the 76ers and won. Ben Simmons is an elite defender and his value is in the gutter right now. I'm not saying either KPJ or Green are on Trae's level. Our team just needs talent and can build around one or the other with defenders as necessary should they break out. Charlotte did not care about LaMelo's defensive issues and paired him up with Rozier's mediocre defense. Now LaMelo is so good that they can just figure out the defensive schemes later. I'm guessing they'll probably try and trade Rozier.
