Agree with this especially if JV makes it back in time for the playoffs. Would love a stud middle reliever right now though….
How often do we use Javier in relief, How often will be able to use Urquidy? When are we going to get these guys trained to go in back to back games and be effective? In my opinion, it is a big mistake to count on JV and Odorizzi to be starters in the post season. Greinke, Framber, McCullers (if healthy) and Urquidy will have to be your starters. Really good, not great, rotation. Bullpen use would be real shaky as currently constructed. Javier is a great long reliever, but his body is trained as a starter. We don’t know if he can handle a load or even an inning or two for back to back games. Same with Garcia. Trading for quality relievers and stretching your lineup by adding a competent hitting CF is the way to go, even if we have to give up some top prospects.
Unless Crane decides to go over the luxury tax it is going to be very difficult to add 2 relievers and a CFer. The Astros are like 1-2 million under the luxury tax.
What are the consequences for going over the luxury tax this year? We will certainly have tons coming off the books next year. Surely, winning another World Series would more that pay the hit.
From MLB: A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold. Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s). Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.
I don’t think anyone is expecting Verlander to pitch more than 2 innings in any playoff game this season. His addition should be seen as gravy. But either way, teams typically only need 4 starters in the playoffs, which for Houston would be Greinke, Valdez, McCullers, and one of Odorizzi, Urquidy, or Garcia. So 2 of those guys will be available in the pen, along with Pressly, Javier, Raley, and Baez (assuming he’s healthy). That’s 6 pretty good arms that pretty much any playoff team would have in their pen. Then you’re left with 3 spots for Verlander, Smith, Stanek, James, Pruitt, Paredes, Taylor, Scrubb, and Abreu, plus whoever they want to add. So I think we all agree that there’s room on this roster for adding 1-2 RP, especially guys who fit in the 8th inning. But I wouldn’t exactly describe that currently projected playoff bullpen as “shaky”, especially if Baez and Verlander are able to pitch 1 inning up to their prior ability.
Those are mostly just the financial penalties which aren't that bad. The biggest penalty would be the draft pick compensation from the qualifying offer if Correa leaves. It goes from after 2nd round if you are under the luxury tax to after the 4th round if you are over it. Then you also pay a higher price if we sign a player from another team that has a qualifying offer under the tax you give up your 2nd highest pick in the draft and 500k in international signing money. When over the tax it costs your 2nd highest pick, 5th highest pick, and 1 million in international signing money. https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer
True, I thought there was more to it but didn't see anything. But for this year and meaningful acquisitions nobody should care.
Is this where Deadline rental player suggestions go? Here goes in case it is. Byron Buxton is in his last year of control for Minnesota. It is not likely they will be a serious player in the off season FA talks. He might be too much for next off season as a pickup, but he could be a descent addition for a playoff run. Replace Straw with a CF hitting about 40-50 points higher.(I don't expect his 200+ OPS+ to last. My bad. He's had three arbitrations, but he must have been a super 2 since he won't have six years yet.
Paul Fry would be a nice under the radar middle-relief addition from the Orioles. And not the first guy most teams will call Baltimore about. “He’s among the top 25 bullpen arms in strikeout rate (33%), strikeout/walk rate differential (22.9 percentage points), SIERA (2.98) and ground ball rate (55.3%) over the last two years. Quite simply, he’s done almost everything teams want from a pitcher. He’s shown the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground, so it’s no surprise he continues to post scoreless innings.” ”Fry was very good in 2020, and he’s seemingly taken his game to another level this season. Fry’s punching out hitters at a career-best 36.7% rate this year, helping him pitch to a 1.99 ERA across 22 2/3 frames. He’s averaging a career-high 93.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball, which is missing bats at an elite level. And Fry’s been equally dominant against hitters from both sides of the plate, holding left-handed and right-handed batters alike to a sub-.500 OPS.“
Yep. A guy to look at in the Twins series is Taylor Rogers. I've seen him pitch twice this year and I liked his stuff.
Ehh.. making 6 million this year and another year of arb. That's a lot for the Astros to take on this year and will be probably making 8 million plus next season
Didn't know he made that much, but I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that they'll have to go above the CBT if they want to do anything useful for the team this year, which is something they should be very interested in doing.
A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft as well $1 million from its international bonus pool. If such a team signs multiple qualifying offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well. If that team loses a free agent, it will be awarded a Draft pick immediately following the fourth round. The Astros, Cubs and Yankees exceeded the threshold in 2020. Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2021 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second- and fifth-round picks. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-highest first-round pick and its fourth-round pick.
Yep, there is no way Houston will go over the tax because it would lose a 2nd and 4th rd pick in addition to losing $1M in international signing money. I believe they’ve already committed the bulk of their international signing pool for next year, and they are surely more than reluctant to lose more picks after losing their 1st and 2nd picks the last 2 years. Houston can use prospects to have other teams eat salary on players the Astros trade for, but that has limits. Pretty much any player with more than $10M remaining in guaranteed 2021 money is probably off the table for Houston. Luckily that won’t be a huge hinderance for the types of guys Houston is likely targeting (RP).
They only lose those extra picks and the international signing money if they sign a player with a qualifying offer attached. Not sure why everyone thinks oh they won't spend on Correa, but they will pay another huge free agent.....
Oh you’re right. But they would reduce the pick they get from QO’ing Correa (and possibly Verlander) from a 2nd rounder to a 4th rounder.
Yes, but that will be the 2022 draft when we will have a 1st and 2nd round pick again. So it would be nice to have the pick after the 2nd round to boost the losses from losing the 4 picks from the scandal, but that wouldn't prevent me from going over the tax when you have a team that is very close to being a world series favorite. All of this is also assuming this system exists after the CBA negotiations.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Today I absolutely dislike baseball. One my my host sons got traded to the Marlins. Once activated, I’ll share more. I am sooo sad. I hate this part every. single. time.</p>— ⚾️Future Astros Host Mom ⚾️ (@_CCHooksHostMom) <a href="">June 12, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
