Some weeks, like lately, sure! Couple weeks ago, he was struggling mightily. Lots of season left. I do think in the end, it will come down whether a team wants to gamble and overpay for Correa's future. If such a buyer comes forth, he is gone. If not, there is a chance he stays.
If this is the current… and presuming he will have at least 1 IL stint (as have all the other big name players thus far, not a stretch)… what do you pay and for how long?
Too much depends on Carlos's health and performance. But I wouldn't offer more than 6 years, even if he wins the WS MVP trophy.
true . But like you said the season is a marathon . I do think that his “struggling” in the beginning of the year looked more pronounced because it happened early . Same with tucker (after the first 5 or so games) I don’t think a team will “overpay” and hope he gets even better or something . Maybe gamble on health . But any 5+ year deal does that anyways . do we wanna limit downside or do we wanna go for the upside he can bring us ? That’s the question click and crane have to answer . Fielding a competitive offer WILL require us to go longer than 6 years and/or 25 per imo . Unless he gets hurt . And even then it depends on what/how I think he wants to be here and would take a lower offer if it’s in the same ballpark
No. Every case is different. His injury history is my primary reason for my time limit. Don't get me wrong, he is a very talented player that I would like to see stay in Houston. My wildest guess is he ends up with something like 7yrs 280M. If I am Click, that is too much and too long. Someone else might offer that though.
Fair. My take is a lot of players who don’t seem injury prone, eventually get there with time. Some guys get hurt a lot early, some of the fluke variety, and go on to stay relatively healthy…. Especially for injuries that don’t require surgery. Was Jeff Bagwell brittle simply because he had the same bone broken twice in back to back years? Hell no. Was Justin Verlander any less worthy of the 2 year extension that he has pitched exactly one game for? Will Altuve stay healthy/productive for the majority of his extension years remaining? Is Alex Bregman going to have more hamstring issues than Springer? Is Yordan going to have knee replacement before he’s 30? The Astros have questions that remain unanswered with all their young “stars”. Most big contracts are considered to have “write-off” years for the final 2 or so, given expectation of regression due to age or injury. It’s unfortunately the price some teams have to pay to attract star players… or its the price teams will pay to outbid some teams. (LMJ will stay healthy for 3 years or less of his 5 year deal) If the Astros think he’s worth 5-6 (with a fluctuating dollar/year value), Correa is justified to look for 7-8. If his back is ‘right’ due to better conditioning, stretching, muscle training, and avoiding the questionable activities that has apparently been kept in secret… he has every reason to feel those issues are behind him. The team can do their own homework… we all know how ruthless the medical staff is (see Aiken).
I don't know if that's the terminology I would use...but yes. We've seen a multitude of examples across sports where some guys are just snake bit, and it's always something. Don't know if there's any real scientific basis for it, but it seems to happen too often for me to ignore it. As for the Altuve comp, I would have been all for the Astros signing Correa to an 8 year deal if a few of them were the team controlled years and it was just a 5 year extension. They will all be big money years for Correa now.
If Correa has a great season, Astros will max out at 30-34 million a year for 6 years. Astros will never go more then that in terms of money or years. I wouldn't either. But I think other teams will and the odds of Correa staying are very slim.
To me, as long as its not degenerative... or the type of injury where surgery will leave somebody in a slightly lessened state... then I don't know if I can fully share the same concerns. He had the irresponsible rib fracture in 2019, he had the thumb in 2017, and the leg in the minors. The back is everything, but unless they're just not disclosing it, its recovered without the need for anything major. His body is young enough to recover fully (possibly unlike Springer). His defense/mobility still seems to be as good as its always been. We've also seen examples in sports where guys start to succumb to overuse or degeneration... after playing hard a lot of consecutive years. Correa actually has less mileage/wear/tear because of the time he's missed (again, unlike Springer). It would almost make this decision easier (and his market value a little more defined) if he did get injured this year at some point... I know everybody wants him to 'prove it', and stay healthy, but really where does that leave him? Exhausted after finally playing a full season and prone to something else?
I don’t think we sign him for anywhere near where he wants to be. I’d love to have him back, but with the Bregman to SS possibility not to mention some of our guys like Leon coming up, we have ample opportunity to move Bregman to SS and upgrade our OF, 1B, 3B which are much easier to find offense from. When I look at things its not in the vacuum of what you are getting for the position, offensive wise. It is howifar can you stretch your offense. In other words, is a .270 30 HR SS better than the same in the outfield. The outcome is the same for the team. If you replace a black hole like Straw with an OF with Correa like numbers at half the price and an above average 3b for the same money, why not do that? Correa is not Trout. He may not even be in the top 5 Shortstops plus the injury concerns.
People always say things like this, but so much changes in a year. For example, the Yankees had their SS of the future in Gleybar Torres and now that's really unclear. If they could get Correa, he's easily movable for prospects. And new teams will emerge as contenders like the Padres did a few years ago when they went all-in on spending. There will always be teams interested in and willing to pay for star players. Even more so if he's willing to move to 3B.
Sounds great in theory but there’s no easily acquiring an equally productive OF and above average 3rd baseman. Paying market rate for those two things would probably hurt similarly to just paying Correa. there’s definitely benefits to having a high productivity player at an important position. Theoretically makes filling lesser defensive positions much easily when you don’t need a great corner bat to make up for a weak hitting up the middle player.
I think Kris Bryant could be had for around 20-23 a year for five years to man 3b. Trade for Martes if possible. Next years lineup without Correa and without breaking the bank on one player: Altuve Brantley Bregman Alvarez Bryant Tucker Gurriel Martes Maldonado Potential Bench Straw or McCormick Castro Leon Other surprising minor leaguers All kinds of money left with departure of Verlander and possibly Greinke. Sign a starter and closer and you are favorites in 2022 and solid core going into 2023.
What about defense? Is there a better defensive SS in the game? Carlos is also 2nd in WAR among the position. He's a true two way contributor and Im not as certain Bregman would give you the same in that department. Im all for improving the ballclub with the money, but losing out on a Correa level talent and replacing him with multiple JAGS doesnt seem to be the best use of money TO ME. It would be nice to see Crane pony up and start to level the playing field a bit with his wallet the same way other owners do for their team and fans - instead of looking for bargains we should be shopping for stars to add and continue a dynasty.
The only way to get rid of the cloud hanging over the Astros is to keep winning. We will still be hated but they'll be forced to respect us. More importantly, our franchise is more valuable in the long run if you can "validate" the success of the past several years with another championship. Crane needs to maximize the likelihood of winning in these next few years and lock Correa up.
Bryant is a Boras guy. He will be seeking 30 million plus per year which he probably deserves when you look at the deals signed by Arenado and Rendon. I don't expect the Astros to sign any mega contracts (over 100 million) We talk a lot about the Astros having 50 million to spend this offseason. The problem is the following offseason Alex Bregman gets an 18 million dollar raise. His luxury tax stays at 20 million but in terms of actual dollars he goes from around 12 million to 30 million. Then you have Straw, Tucker, Alvarez, Framber, Javier, Urquidy, Stanek, Pruitt, James, Taylor, and Paredes that will all be in arbitration. That's going to add a ton of payroll. Alvarez might top 10 million his first year of arbitration. The money coming off the books that offseason are from Brantley, Pressly, Yuli, and Castro being free agents. So that's about 40 million. Bregman's raise wipes away half of that. The arbitration raises will easily wipe away the other half and probably more. I would expect the Astros to look at signing maybe Starling Marte for CF and someone like Chris Taylor for SS. I don't expect them to sign Story, Baez, Seager, Correa, Bryant, or even Semien.
