http://theglitteringeye.com/absence-of-mandate/ Absence of Mandate Dave Schuler June 6, 2021 In her Wall Street Journal column Kimberley Strassel makes a significant observation: The president has repeatedly claimed a mandate for action despite knowing better. Even with the Democratic Party’s twin Georgia runoff victories in January, it ended the election with a 50-50 Senate and the narrowest Democratic House majority since before the New Deal. The prudent course would have been to govern from the middle, working with Republicans on incremental change. Democrats instead decided to “go big” with a strategy that had no margin for error and relied on two big bets. First, that they could juke or blow up the Senate rules to get around the 60-vote filibuster. Second, that they could force or cajole every member of their razor-thin majority to adopt one of the most progressive agendas in U.S. history. Joe Biden had a single clear mandate: not to be Donald Trump. In that he has been successful. Last week the first alternative noted by Ms. Strassel was vetoed by the Senate parliamentarian. Whether the Democrats can “force or cajole” a majority of their caucus to vote for the administration’s agenda remains to be seen. It may well prove the case that the Congressional leadership will need to cultivate skills that nothing in their backgrounds has granted them experience with: compromise, moderation, and consensus-building.
Oil Slips With Rally Cooling After Run-Up to $70 in New York A good reason to think inflation is mostly transitory, oil won't rise to previous boom levels.
"Can Jill Biden help move the needle on vaccination rates?": https://www.washingtonpost.com/life...ed32b8-c7ab-11eb-a11b-6c6191ccd599_story.html excerpt: When Monique Harouna, 51, showed up at a vaccination center in the historic Abyssinian Baptist Church in Harlem, New York's most famous predominantly Black neighborhood, on Sunday, she knew there was a to-do going on. The Secret Service was outside doing security searches, plus dozens of cameras were crowded around, with an Eyewitness News 7 van parked outside. Yet, it was still a surprise when first lady Jill Biden, accompanied by infectious-disease expert Anthony S. Fauci and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), walked over to shake her hand. “Hi, I’m Jill,” said Biden, as Harouna did a double take. “They told us Michelle Obama was coming,” Harouna said later, in an interview. “That’s what I heard. So, she’s not coming?” more at the link
thanks Biden! "Lumber Prices Post Biggest–Ever Weekly Drop With Buyers Balking": https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-11/lumber-prices-post-biggest-ever-weekly-drop-with-buyers-balking
I had heard that lumber prices were dropping a few weeks ago. This very good news for my field as we had some projects that were in doubt over high prices. Even while lumber is coming down there are still high prices in steel and very long lead times on fabricated steel.
Do You Want Fries With Your Vaccination? McDonald's is partnering up with the California Department of Public Health to offer free COVID-19 vaccinations at more than 70 locations beginning June 21. The pop-up clinics will offer vaccines to McDonald's employees, their families, and the general public. Those who get a vaccine at McDonald's will receive a coupon for one free menu item, according to the company.
"Inflation surges as consumer prices leap 5.4 percent, biggest jump since 2008": https://nypost.com/2021/07/13/inflation-surges-as-prices-see-biggest-jump-since-2008/
"Higher Inflation Is Here to Stay for Years, Economists Forecast": https://www.wsj.com/articles/higher...tay-for-years-economists-forecast-11626008400 Higher Inflation Is Here to Stay for Years, Economists Forecast Strong economic rebound and lingering pandemic disruptions fuel inflation forecasts above 2% through 2023, survey finds By Gwynn Guilford and Anthony DeBarros July 11, 2021 9:00 am ET Americans should brace themselves for several years of higher inflation than they’ve seen in decades, according to economists who expect the robust post-pandemic economic recovery to fuel brisk price increases for a while. Economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal raised their forecasts of how high inflation would go and for how long, compared with their previous expectations in April. The respondents on average now expect a widely followed measure of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, to be up 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021 from a year before. They forecast the annual rise to recede to slightly less than 2.3% a year in 2022 and 2023. That would mean an average annual increase of 2.58% from 2021 through 2023, putting inflation at levels last seen in 1993. “We’re in a transitional phase right now,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics LLC. “We are transitioning to a higher period of inflation and interest rates than we’ve had over the last 20 years.” The inflation measure—the Commerce Department’s core price index of personal-consumption expenditures—jumped 3.4% in May from a year earlier, the biggest increase since the early 1990s. What Mr. Naroff and the other survey respondents describe is a generational shift from the lower inflation of the past two decades, a shift that could create new challenges for households, policy makers and investors who came to expect inflation closer to or below 2%. If the economists prove correct, Federal Reserve officials might have to raise rates sooner or more than they expect to keep inflation under control. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the overall PCE index, which includes food and energy prices—rose 3.9% in May, nearly double the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed, in a report released Friday, repeated its view that inflation has picked up this year due to bottlenecks, hiring difficulties and other “largely transitory factors” related to the economy’s rebound from the effects of the pandemic. Most officials, in projections released last month, believed inflation would decline to around 2% over the next two years, though there was greater uncertainty over how quickly they might need to raise interest rates to get inflation there. At the Fed’s June policy meeting, most officials projected they would raise interest rates from near zero by 2023. Several expected to raise rates next year. In March, most officials expected to hold rates steady through 2023. Some 58% of the economists surveyed don’t see the Fed raising interest rates until the second half of 2022 or later. “Inflation is expected to surge longer and longer—longer than the Fed previously thought,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “The Fed is now likely to raise rates in the first half of 2023, although some Fed presidents will be nipping at the bit to move sooner.” Some respondents worry the Fed could move too slowly. “The danger is that monetary authorities are behind the curve,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council. “I’m not saying hyperinflation is around the corner, just that a lot of things have come together in the last year, and the overall trend of costs across the board is growing faster than in the last five or 10 years.” Core PCE inflation rose just 1.7% annually, on average, between 1995 and 2019. Now the Fed wants inflation to overshoot 2% for a while to make up for that shortfall. Another key measure of inflation, the Labor Department’s consumer-price index, which tends to run hotter than the PCE index, leapt 5% in May from a year before, the most in nearly 13 years. Survey respondents expect the department to report Tuesday that the CPI rose 4.7% in June from a year before. They expect the rate to fall to 4.1% by year’s end. Their CPI forecasts for next year and 2023 hover between 2.4% and 2.7%. Supply-chain bottlenecks, higher shipping costs and labor shortages might prove temporary as the market adjusts to disruptions. However, the combination of plentiful federal stimulus funding, an unprecedented stockpile of household savings and the rollout of vaccines is driving a surge in consumer demand, enabling many businesses to raise prices significantly for the first time in decades. If households and businesses start to expect rising prices, that dynamic can become self-fulfilling. There are signs that consumers are starting to anticipate higher inflation. Consumer inflation expectations—the rate of inflation the median consumer expects five to 10 years from now—climbed to 2.8% in June, about the same rate as in 2014, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. Higher inflation for several years would ripple through the economy in various ways. Consumers could find their household budgets squeezed. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on stock values and could crimp growth in interest-rate-sensitive industries like housing. Higher inflation can also make it harder for businesses to plan longer-term investments. “It’s disruptive—you can’t be sure of what your costs are, whether you can get supplies or what the costs will be six months from now,” Mr. Swift said. “I’d hate to be in the construction business trying to bid on a job when you don’t know what the cost of steel will be 18 months from now.” The Wall Street Journal survey of 64 business, academic and financial forecasters was conducted July 2-7. Not all participants responded to every question. The survey archives and forecast data can be found here. Write to Gwynn Guilford at gwynn.guilford@wsj.com and Anthony DeBarros at Anthony.Debarros@wsj.com Appeared in the July 12, 2021, print edition as 'Economists Raise Inflation Forecasts.'
Construction costs were super high as wood prices skyrocketed during the pandemic, driven by DIY and other home improvement projects since people couldn't travel. Now large consumer product prices are going up as people are now buying cars and other higher-priced consumer products. Landlords are also jacking up rents (my older daughter is faced with a $165 rent increase in her apartment in Upper Kirby, my younger is only getting a $10 increase in her apartment in Huntsville).
insofar as inflation, that is true. inflation is just one aspect of the economy. how about growth in job creation and GDP ? I wish that these authors would also address GDP growth. according to many economist, GDP growth in 2021 could exceed 6%, the highest in several generations. there is a chance that the US GDP growth may surpass China's
Nice to see a return to caring about when a president tells the truth... but could you help with some specifics about what you are accusing Biden of lying about?
There is not one thing that restricts voting in the TX bill. Why is the gentleman that said he was going to a uniter being so divisive?
Here's what is in the two bills: The latest bills in Texas include new identification requirements for people voting by mail and prohibit local election officials from sending a vote-by-mail application to someone who hasn't requested one. They also ban drive-through voting and extended hours during early votingd . Republicans in the state argue that these innovations — which were mostly used by Houston officials during the pandemic — opened the door to voter fraud. James Slattery, a senior staff attorney with the Texas Civil Rights Project, said voters of color and shift workers benefited the most from these methods of voting last year. "And so you can consider the bans on those forms of voting to be a direct attack on voters of color in particular," he said. In addition, the bills expand what partisan poll watchers can observe during elections and prohibits poll watchers from being removed for violating election law. If passed, these bills would also create new criminal penalties for any election worker who "intentionally or knowingly refuses to accept a [poll] watcher." Slattery said these bills basically give a host of new powers to partisan poll watchers. "Both bills make it harder to control disruptive partisan poll watchers when they are acting aggressively or disrupting voting," he said. The bills also create a slew of new criminal penalties and requirements for folks who assist voters at the polls, or people who assist others planning to vote by mail. For example, they require that people fill out paperwork if they are taking someone who is not a relative to vote in person. And they require people to exit a car if there is someone voting curbside in that vehicle. "This is a preventative measure for us," he said. "We do have and heard testimony throughout our session of problems of voter irregularities, of voter fraud, of cases currently being investigated. It is an issue. It is a real thing. But I think it's our job to make sure that doesn't blossom into a problem." Slattery said the provisions in these bills, however, do nothing to make elections more secure in Texas and would instead further the false claims Trump and his allies have made that the 2020 election was stolen. "There isn't any election security benefit to nearly any of these provisions," he said. "It's all in service of the big lie and enshrining the big lie even further into the laws of this most restrictive state in the country." https://www.npr.org/2021/07/09/1014579306/texas-republicans-have-a-new-voting-bill-heres-whats-in-it
