Matt Levine writes well about random finance. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-03/amc-has-a-bit-more-stock-to-sell 90% of AMC stock recently issued over the past 12 months
@adoo what's your current outlook on amd? Ok to get in at this price or wait for pullback? Tempted to get back in. My fear is that they are winning the battle vs Intel but have a tougher war against arm, aapl, Nvidia, Qualcomm while also having to bid against them for capacity at tsmc. Betting on tsmc's suppliers has been the better bet, but they've run up a lot already. Recent announcement that Samsung mobile chips using amd graphics not only coming this year but being used in laptops as well has me interested. Royalties from this would be a new income stream starting from zero, and not dependent on tsmc capacity. Xilinx merger finally happening should also increase EPS.
good PR, but i don't think it moves the needle much. those graphics chips would have sold out without tsla orders anyway.
haha ok i will do more DD on amd. buying calls on growth tech has sucked for the 6 months, premiums so high even on stocks that aren't even that volatile, managing the theta is a nightmare. i've been sticking to buying shares or selling puts for the most part.
Man, that's awesome it worked out so well, and definitely don't take my other post saying to go back in amc, I'm just going to watch it for entertainment, I hope your next trade goes as well or even better than this one went.
this has done well, and i redirected my semis portion of port on these 2 as chia network space has exploded. however i'm starting to see the rate of growth tapering off. farmers that invested in plotting hardware are giving up on plotting, which drops the rate at which those HDDs fill up. if chia network keeps slowing, it may be time to switch back to semis.
Do you think there could be a pullback/dip for wdc/stx? I only followed Chia enough to know the impact on drives being sold. And have you been following the gpu mining on eth, like if it finally/ever switches to proof of stake would it actually ease gpu craziness or is there already a good replacement lined up?
next qtr earnings should be good, but shares have already been pricing some of the chia impact. STX shipped 139 exabytes of storage the whole of last year. Only a third of that goes to retail channels (cloud and oem get the rest). Chia already at 16 exabytes and was growing at 1 exabyte a day recently till dip this weekend. 16 exabytes is what has been plotted and came online, naturally if u are farmer u buy spare capacity ahead of time. If you prepare 30 days ahead, that's another 30 exabytes in storage that may already been sold. So napkin math 46 exabytes sold between STX/wd/Toshiba so far. Too many variables to predict near time price action given fwd looking nature of price, but I may not want to stick around to find out which way is swings. When eth 2.0 drops it will kill a lot of demand for new gpus imo. There are other gpu minded coins that existing miners will switch to, but none have anywhere close to the same market cap, and earrings from mining other coins will get diluted badly. This will hurt Nvidia more than amd. Exact date not known, but my guess is late 2021 or early 2022.
Thanks so much for the info on this! And definitely agree with you on Nvidia being impacted more on mining.
William Ackman SPAC Nears $40 Billion Universal Music Deal Prospective deal puts a valuation on the world’s largest music business at $42 billion with debt https://www.wsj.com/articles/pershi...action-with-universal-music-group-11622756897 So PSTH wants to pay a 10-15% premium over what tencent paid for universal just 6 months ago? Pass, hodl'ing tencent whose interest is more strategic with its own music streaming biz. edit: article breaking down the deal, maybe its not so bad; but the structure is really convoluted https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433104-pershing-square-tontine-holdings-fairly-valued
Digital Turbine: As Good As Trade Desk And Roku, But A Lot Cheaper https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433055-digital-turbine-good-trade-desk-roku-cheaper
Payroll numbers below expectation, market looking green and happy... I guess thinking is that fed wont' start tapering so soon?
ok took a closer look. my 2c: it looks fully valued based on latest revenue guidance for the next year (50% YoY, and normalizing to 20% after that). I think there's still upside as Lisa is conservative, and my gut feeling is that they will beat guidance handily, the latest announcements on the product side look amazing, but the margin for error with AMD now is lower, compared to say APPS which I think is undervalued without having to assume over-performance against expectations (not just mine but the sell-side analysts covering apps). maybe if AMD falls to mid 70s i may sell a naked put or start a small position again. just my 2c, i've been wrong plenty here. besides larger market risks, eth 2.0 will have an impact on amd, but the larger impact will be felt at nvidia. amd gets higher margins from cpus instead of gpus anyway.
the next ERS will be 9 Aug SDGR appears to have bounced off the bottom of the recent trading channel; trading action has protruded 20 and 50 dma. over the past 5 trading sessions, it has been consolidating / basing above the 50 dma. my target is above 80, which is the 38% retracement level. should it trade above 81.5, 100 dma, coupled w an impressive ERS, there is a good chance of closing the 84-100 gap sold a naked 70 strike put
I would never put it past the Reddit community to get it there. People are collectively committed to seeing it to 100.
