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Draft odds, A statistical analysis

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by IVFL, May 28, 2021.

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  1. Buck Turgidson

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    This is insane, one of us 2 are idiots (could be both, I'll allow it but I sure don't think so). You seem to think that they are drawing a single pongball like in the televised money lotteries?

    From everything I've read and seen, you do not understand how the actual drawing of the NBA Lottery works. Read up on that, ****, I'd start at very basic wikipedia, and get back to us.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery#Process
     
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  2. Jontro

    Jontro Member

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  3. ashleyem

    ashleyem Member

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    You guys always managed to find excuse for Morey. But if Stone/Tilman did anything wrong, you show them no mercy.
     
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  4. StupidMoniker

    StupidMoniker I lost a bet
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    The lottery only determines the first four picks, so if other teams get the first four picks (Houston's combinations do not come up in any of the four draws) then based on having the worst record, Houston defaults to the fifth pick. The 5-14 picks are not broken down because there is no possibility of 6-14. Either Houston gets a top 4 or they are 5 and the pick is traded. The odds of 1-4 are 14%, 13.42%, 12.75%, 11.97%, and the odds of losing the pick are 47.86%.
     
  5. Buck Turgidson

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    I'm sure this will explain it all to him, 7th time is the charm.
     
  6. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    But what about pick #7?
     
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  7. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Nevermind. I've run the draft simulator this morning. I see since the tie breakers
    that OKC no longer gets picks beyond 5. Prior they did.
     
    #47 ApacheWarrior, May 29, 2021
    Last edited: May 29, 2021
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  8. Buck Turgidson

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    You have got to be ****ing kidding me.
     
  9. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Not kidding.

    Prior to tie breaker tankathon awardEd our pick to OKC at 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and so on.
    It indicates Houston in parentheses.

    You said 0% chance......our logo ping pong would have to land at #8 for OKC to get it at #8....
    and so on.


    The NBA rule use to be that the worse team could be no worse than 3 or 4.
    That's the difference. Not more ping pongs than say the actual lottery. Law
    of averages doesn't change by more ping pongs if the ratio difference remains.

    You can extend the number 1 slotted team to one million ping pongs; but if the other slotted
    picks increase their amount of ping pongs in proportion to ratio.....the law of averages
    remain the same.

    If you look at the furthest right column you see the Rockets average landing spot
    as 3.7. The law of averages says so.....as you can see I've posted here for over a
    month now that my gut feeling is that the Rockets end up as the 3rd pick. Tankathon
    chart reaffirms my gut feeling. Law of averages.

    http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
    3.7.......law of averages has us falling in that 1-4 spot 52% of the time.
    48% not. Basically that coin flip still. You can turn it anyway you want.
    Remains the same.
     
    #49 ApacheWarrior, May 29, 2021
    Last edited: May 29, 2021
  10. groovemachine

    groovemachine Member

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    The lottery is not rigged, the league doesn’t care if our pick goes to OKC or not.
     
  11. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    The Rockets will get a top 4 pick or they will not get a top 4 pick. #analysis

    On one hand, following “tradition” of teams losing their superstar and getting the top pick, the Rockets absolutely will get the first overall pick. (Lost Harden and traded him to his preferred destination). Adam Silver will reward the Rockets.

    On the other hand, they’ll get top four but not number one.

    On the third hand (@ThatBoyNick), pick is going to OKC. OKC will get two top five picks. Rockets will pick 18th.


    -Pelicans lose AD, get #1 pick(from 7th spot); Lakers jumping from 11 to 4(!)
    -LeBron returns, Cavs get #1 pick(from 9th spot; traded for Kevin Love)
    -Pelicans lose Chris Paul, get #1 pick
    -Bulls, 9th “best” odds, get #1 pick year hometown kid Derrick Rose comes out

    https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2019/5/14/18616630/nba-draft-lottery-rigged-conspiracies
    Stern makes up for trading Chris Paul in 2012.
    George Shinn is one of the most notorious owners in NBA history. Once the king of the Queen City, Shinn brought the NBA to Charlotte in 1987 after buying the rights to start a franchise, leading to the creation of the Charlotte Hornets. Just over a decade later, he was in the middle of a public trial for kidnapping and sexual assault, which led to the public finding out about Shinn’s extra marital affairs.

    Withdrawing from the public, Shinn decided to move the Hornets from Charlotte to New Orleans, a decision some believed was caused by public scrutiny in Charlotte. Despite the Hornets still pulling some of the best attendance figures in the NBA, Shinn found a new home for his team.

    Things were decent for the New Orleans Hornets for the better part of a decade. The team had a few playoff berths, hosted an NBA All-Star Game, and, thanks to superstar Chris Paul, looked to anchor the team for its future. Then Shinn expressed his desire to sell the team. A year down the road, and a collapsed deal later, Stern announced the league would purchase the Hornets for $300 million, to ensure its financial solvency and the health of the league as a whole.

    The league-owned Hornets decided to trade Paul, after the star demanded a trade out of New Orleans and put the team over a barrel. An initial deal to the Lakers was vetoed by Stern, citing that it wasn’t in the team’s best interests. Four days later, New Orleans agreed to a deal that sent Paul to the Clippers, bolstering the underperforming Los Angeles team and increasing its worth. Meanwhile the Hornets got back a two second-round picks, the Timberwolves’ unprotected first-round, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, and Al-Farouq Aminu. It was a potential upside deal for the future, but has aged terribly in retrospect.

    By April 2012, the NBA found a buyer for the Hornets when Saints’ owner Tom Benson purchased the team for $338 million. Benson needed a make-good, a superstar to re-launch the team. It was a tough proposition. While bad, there were three teams worse than New Orleans vying for the top pick, with the Charlotte Bobcats holding the worst record in the league, which was also the worst record in NBA history at 7-59.

    Everyone knew the No. 1 pick would be Kentucky’s Anthony Davis, a generational athlete with a transcendent unibrow, branding that built itself and would immediately bring star power to whichever team drafted him.

    Then, with just a 13.7 percent chance to get the top pick the Hornets somehow wound up with the No. 1 pick, and the ability to draft Davis. The Bobcats got the No. 2 pick. One final twist of the knife for the city that lost its franchise to New Orleans were now robbed of its franchise player.

    Dikembe Mutombo knows best.
    While not a direct conspiracy theory itself, Dikembe Mutombo’s actions prior to the 2016 NBA Draft lottery is stunning proof of the conspiracy the league had been operating in for decades.

    The Philadelphia 76ers had the best chance of landing the No. 1 pick on lottery night, but by this point, we’d seen time and time again that “luck” means nothing when it comes to landing the pick. Sure, the Sixers had a 25 percent chance of getting the first pick — but this came after several years of the Cavaliers somehow jumping the worst teams in the league (more on that later).

    So, suffice it to say, there was no guarantee the 76ers would pick No. 1 — and yet one guy knew.

    [​IMG]

    Look at that timestamp ... 4:36 p.m. on May 17. Hours before the draft lottery was set to air live on ESPN. Mutombo quickly deleted his tweet, but what happens on the internet lasts forever.

    The Cavaliers’ incredible luck.
    No team in the NBA has benefited more from the league’s guiding hand than the Cleveland Cavaliers. Drafting LeBron James in 2003 represented more than getting a phenom the entire league coveted, it secured the team’s superstar future for the next 20 years — assuming the Cavaliers drafted right.

    In 2011, 2013, and 2014, the Cavaliers unpredictably landed the No. 1 pick in the draft. Over this time, they never had the worst record in the league. All this curiously happened after James made his first “decision” and left for the Miami Heat. Funny how this all works, isn’t it?

    Perhaps it was luck, but it was the kind of luck so unpredictable that there had to be an outside hand.

    2011: Cavaliers get No. 1 in the lottery thanks to having the Clippers’ pick (2.8 percent chance).
    2013: Cavaliers get No. 1 in the lottery (15.6 percent chance).
    2014: Cavaliers get No. 1 in the lottery (1.7 percent chance).
    The raw odds of this happening is 1,493-1, so improbable it functionally shouldn’t happen. And yet, the Cavaliers kept doing it again, and again, and again. After James left, the Cavaliers were in dire need of a new superstar, and the NBA was there to give them opportunity time, and time, and time again.

    In April 2019, the Cavaliers had a 50-50 coin flip against the Suns to determine which team would officially receive the ping-pong combinations for the second-worst record in the NBA. They won, naturally. In a season after James left, this time for Los Angeles.

    The Chicago Bulls land their hometown star in 2008.
    The Chicago Bulls weren’t down on their luck by any stretch by the time the 2008 NBA Draft lottery rolled around, but this also presented a unique opportunity for the NBA. The Bulls had languished with two playoff exits and clearly missed one superstar piece to get over the hump. Derrick Rose gave the NBA the opportunity to intervene and solidify the future of a once-proud franchise.

    Rose, a Chicago native, had slotted himself as a top pick, along with Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo. However, as the draft drew near, many believed Rose was going No. 1. The Bulls were in need of an upgrade at point guard from Kirk Hinrich, and this was the chance to kill two birds with one stone from the NBA’s perspective.

    Chicago had just a 1.7 percent chance of landing the top pick. It was enough, with the league’s help of course.


    Abe Pollin, owner of the Washington Wizards died in late 2010. Months later, his Wizards were able to win the lottery and earned the right to choose first overall. In addition to David Stern’s empathy for Pollin and the attendance of Pollin’s widow at the lottery event, Washington was having a tough year, stemming from a gun incident that involved Javaris Crittenton and Gilbert Arenas.
     
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  12. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    lol. This is like the 10th thread where people are still confused about this. :D
     
  13. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    How did you know he didn't offer it? And why would the other team accept it? The difference between top-5 and top-4 is an almost-50% chance at a top-4 pick. Maybe that was required to make the trade.
     
  14. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    The changes to the draft lottery percentages were implemented in 2019, but the ruling to change them was announced back in 2017.
     
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  15. mikenm268

    mikenm268 Member

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    Morey was just trying to protect against a freak occurance where we missed the playoffs due to injury or something and lucked into a top four pick from the 14 slot. There is no way he was strategizing at the time he had James Harden and was getting Russell Westbrook around “what if 18 months from now we have the worst record in the league?”.
     
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  16. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    There wasnt really any strategy for Morey other than go all in. No plan for continuing the talent pool which is why the Rox hadnt had a FRP the last 6 yrs or something.

    I like Morey but its pretty clear he didnt really care about future consequences and just wanted to load up and bet it all every single time. Dude traded Pat Bev, Harrell, Sweet Lou and 3 frps for an expiring Cp3 that should tell you all you need to know...
     
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  17. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    I'm not saying he was strategizing. I'm saying what if as part of the trade, he was requested to not protect the 5th spot? He could've just said "whatever... sure". To say "all he had to do was make it top-5 protected" could be ignoring the trade may have required it for it to go through. These people honestly think Morey didn't know not having the 5th position is a 48% chance of losing a top-5 pick? He obviously knew, but probably didn't think it would come to that, but it was still required to get the deal done.
     
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  18. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Nobody will question how we did get there or failed to get there once it's done.

    It is just the pre-draft jitters.
     
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  19. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    You know ..... There is also the possibility that Morey did that **** on purpose .... just to stick it to Ferntits.

    He may have known that Harden wanted out and that he was on the way out too when he made that trade for Westbrook.

    I mean if anyone knows how many assets were thrown away to avoid the tax , all those things made his job near impossible and I'd damn sure have been bitter about that if I were in his shoes.


    Here's another little screw you on the way out ....


    Kinda like he knew damn well he wasn't sitting out a year when he asked out of his contract .... He knew he was going to Philly & Ferntits didn't even get a non-compete.
     
  20. burlesk

    burlesk Serious business
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    From https://www.nba.com/nba-draft-lottery-explainer:
    "The NBA Board of Governors approved changes to the lottery system on Sept. 28, 2017. Under the revamped format, the NBA Draft Lottery will ensure that the team with the worst record will receive no worse than the fifth pick."

    Can't divvy up the 48% chance of falling outside the top four picks in the lottery, if there is only one pick to divvy it amongst, or am I misunderstanding your questions?

    Not sure why tankathon would have ever shown us receiving picks lower than #5, when that was never a possibility, tiebreakers or no. What am I missing?
     
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