Anyone getting in line for Tesla Model 3?

1. 3 has longer range and is more efficient. Y is larger with higher cargo capacity and is a cuv which is the more popular form factor. If you are single I'd go with the 3, if you have a family with kids, or is active and looking for more storage I'd go with the Y.

2. The model 3 standard range is $40k, model 3 long range is $49k, and model Y long range is $52k. You don't need the performance models and you don't need FSD so not sure where you are getting $65k?

Comparable models are the Mustang Mach e, Audi Etron, Jaguar ipace, and maybe the Hyundai Kona although that's lower level. I suggest you keep an open mind and look up the spec and test drive all of those. A car is a major investment so do your due diligence and don't listen to the extreme biases in here of some people. Especially for your use case, I'd suggest an extended test drive - I know some Tesla dealers offer over the weekend test drives where you can take it home, I would test out the route to Dallas and see for yourself how convenient or not the charging situation is. If they don't offer extended test drives I would rent the cars on Turo to test out the routes before deciding on a big purchase. For teslas it should be a 20 minute stop along the way at a supercharging station, for the rest, good luck. The real comparables if we are looking at sales volume to the Teslas are the bmw 3 series, Mercedes c class, Audi A series for Tesla model 3 and the bmw x series, Mercedes glc, and Audi q series for the Tesla model Y. Theres a reason why none of the other electric "competition" sell any material volume.

 

This bill is not going to pass. Union pandering is unprecedented in the tax code and would be unconstitutional. Not to mention, Ford builds their cars in a non union plant in Mexico so this would only benefit GM.

Disregarding that point, it does seem that at some point this year a $10k tax credit or rebate will get through(without the union part), which would be pretty crazy since Tesla has already raised prices on their vehicles 5 times this year due to demand greater than supply. Austin factory couldn't come online fast enough.

 

Tesla is constantly upgrading hardware, they do not go through 4 or 7 year refresh cycles, they just add on whatever new thing they have whenever it is available, so recently all new Model 3s got a new heat pump system which adds 30 miles of range, which was available to the Model Y only before. I'm sure they will keep adding little things like that over time as they come up.

The biggest HW upgrades I know of down the line is eventually they will equip all their cars with the new 4680 cell battery that they are making themselves starting next year. It will be limited in production and only go into the new model S, X and cybertruck initially, which is how they are getting these 500 mile specs for 2022-23 offerings. Then the Y coming out of Austin and Berlin, and eventually the Y from Fremont and model 3s presumably will all switch over. The biggest difference consumers will be able to tell from that change will be on the sticker price, as it would lower battery costs by -50%.

They are also working on newer versions of the autopilot system, the newer chips should still be a few years away, although on the software side they are recently moving everything onto the vision stack and going away from radar which will no longer be equipped on new teslas.

 

Of course they exist, they are just not very good. Like I said, the guy should go test drive the cars himself, on extended trips to replicate his use case if possible(then he will find out why all the people are complaining on forums about the Ipace overstating their battery range), and then he can decide for himself. Don't decide based on opinions formed by regurgitating FUD short seller articles on seeking alpha.

 

Oh I see, you meant retrofit upgrades. I thought you were talking about upgrading their tech overall. Yeah 4680 is a completely different form factor which structural battery pack built into the body of the car, definitely not retrofittable.

I'm not sure how much HW can be retrofitted vs traditional competition, but as you probably know, the biggest differentiator here is on the software side where they can constantly update your software capabilities over the air, where you could have a 5 year old car but brand new functionality that just came out with new cars. Legacy competition is woefully behind on over the air updates, due to their lack of expertise on the software side and also due to the dealer network tying their hands. The dealers make the vast majority of their profits through service, which would be hampered if new capabilities or hotfixes were all done through an over the air update in your own garage at home. So they hamper the OEM's ability to advance OTA capability just so consumers are still forced to take their cars in for service on even an UI update. Tesla of course does not have any dealers and sell their cars direct.

 

Testing it? It’s a model Y knockoff with worse specs at higher price. The interior, especially infotainment center is light years behind. “Ford pilot” is no where close to autopilot. But the worst part is the charging, you are relying on third party charging stations (which are also available to Tesla) that charge for 1hr 30min what a Tesla at a supercharger would only take 30 minutes, which is a non starter for most people that actually end up trying it. This is why I tell the guy go test drive these cars for himself, it’s going to be $40-50k investment, take the Mach e to Dallas and back and see how you like it. Chuckle.

 

You are right, it is wrong to call these cars bad. But at higher price, lower specs, without a comparable national charging network, they are just not very competitive vs Tesla, as can be seen by the sales numbers. But these manufacturers are on the right track, the Mach e was Ford’s first go at it, assuming they stay solvent for the next 10 years I’m sure they will improve on it and eventually it may become competitive.