Would your view of Luhnow change if the losing and winning years were flipped? That is, he took over a winning team, then won 100 games in each of his first three years, then lost 100 games in each of the last three years? Ending up with the same 50.9% winning percentage?
Yes, but by how much would depend on how that happened exactly. If he took over a 88 win team with a good farm and moderate payroll, pilfered the farm and payroll to get them over the top and win it all, which then resulted in a 3 year tank job at which point he got fired for cheating, my opinion of the overall performance over that time period probably wouldn’t change much.
it isn’t left out of the analysis. Rather, the losing was an intentional part of Luhnows plan, and I personally view it as part of his success. He had a clear plan and vision, and he executed it. Speaking for myself, spare me the mediocrity and meaningless wins and third place decision finishes or .500 records. Show me a plan to build a winner. That’s exactly what he did.
That is totally reasonable. Some people don't care if their team loses intentionally in order to win later. Some people really don't care about anything, as long as the ultimate prize gets won. The ends always justify the means. People with that view reasonably see Luhnow as pure genius. I don't view it that way, but I totally understand those that do. I think the tanking and cheating diminish Luhnow's legacy, but only downgrading him from "great" to "good".
In regards to Luhnow's overall performance, I think had he not made the enemies he made, and not gotten fired, its possible he would have been the GM in Houston for a very long time and potentially won multiple additional World Series. So say, another 5 year run as GM with 2 World Series appearances and another ring, and I would have said he was great, even when factoring in the tanking (and the cheating, if it had come out and somehow not resulted in his firing). Going back to the original question in this thread regarding his drafting prowess, I think had Appel panned out into an ace (or had he had the foresight to take Bryant instead), along with maybe another one of his draftees emerging as a legit star (which admittedly could still happen), then we could say he was a generational talent in that arena, even when factoring the advantage he gained through tanking.
What's your vision of a great GM? Who would you consider to be a great GM in today's MLB? Since obviously you dont consider Luhnow to be a great GM.
Surprised nobody mentioned this... Leon went off tonight!! 4-5, 4 R, 2 2B, 3RBI Bermudez also pitched well again 4.0 IP, 1H, 1R, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR
That game brought Leon’s season numbers way up. He’s now in much more reasonable (optimistic) territory: 7% bb, 36% k, 80 wRC+. That really isn’t bad at all after 73 pa for a guy coming off a 2 year layoff hitting in AA in his first taste of US pro ball. I fully expect him to have a big June/July and possibly be ready for AAA the last month or so of the season.
Joe Perez was promoted to High A. If he has success there he should definitely start getting some buzz. Unquestioned 70 grade arm and 70 grade raw power, so if he is able to show good strikezone discipline and contact ability his stock should shoot up. One of the highest ceiling bats in the system.
139 wRC+ for Leon over his last 42 PA with a .216 ISO but still a pretty poor BB/K (4.8%/31%). If he keeps it up he should be ready for the majors by some point next season.
I still want to know how he's doing what he's doing. His stats suggest he's throwing a lot of strikes with most of them called. When batters do swing, they miss. Guys that get swing and misses in the zone in AA usually have stuff, but there isn't much about him online. I'm guessing he has had a velocity jump that has turned his pitches into stuff.
It looks like 19 year old Yohander Martinez is taking his place in Fayetteville. He had a really good pro debut for the 2019 DSL Astros. Fangraphs says "He’s well-built and has a plus arm; his swing has some length but it also has lift." He's one of the more exciting players in the Astros lower minors, and it'll be interesting to see how he's progressed.
That’s a great sign. Martinez’s DSL numbers put him on the radar but always have to take those with a grain of salt. That he is being pushed to full season ball is really encouraging.
I saw Kevin Goldstein mention that the level of play in A ball has noticeably fallen with the contraction, so teams might be a little more aggressive in getting the young guys reps. I think the Latin American position player group in low A (Nerio, Yohander, Jose Alvarez, Corona, Yeuris Ramirez) is one of the more interesting groups they have had in a while. Speaking of interesting young players... In Fayetteville's game last night, Luis Vega had a standout performance. He came in with 2 outs and a man on 3rd, and he went 4.1 innings with 4 strikeouts and one walk, who he then picked off to face the minimum. He's off to a great start.
Yep, I think the group of teenage DSL guys in Houston's system is pretty underrated; that Fayetteville group doesn't include Dauri Lorenzo who is probably the most talented of the bunch. I have been very disappointed in Yorbin Cueta as I thought he would be one to watch, but it looks like he may be a forgotten prospect and possibly even moved to catcher. There is a big group of good looking athletes in the complex leagues: Cristian Gonzalez, Ricardo Balogh, Roilan Machandy, Tomas Ramirez, Franklin Pinto, Yimmi Cortabarria, Jesus Liranzo, and Richi Gonzalez all profile as plus athletes with significant upside (although they have varying degrees of floor and from that group only Richi Gonzalez is a real prospect at this point).
This makes a lot of sense as I expect a lot of the organization guys are gone and prospects are having to play higher than they would have previously. Current A Ball is probably currently filled with guys that would have been short season or fringe for A ball before. A Advanced is probably has guys that would have been A and A Advanced previously. AA and AAA are likely compacted versions of what were prospects in A Advanced (top guys only), AA, and AAA. I do find it a bad sign that even with contraction, the Astros have been adding minor league free agents to fill voids.
I think the minor league FA signings is only really notable in that it seems to represent a shift in strategy from Luhnow's tenure. I think they have all been pitchers, except two AAA infielders, where Miguelangel Sierra is getting frequent reps. The Astros have been really good at developing pitchers, so I think it's pretty smart to grab guys with interesting attributes and see what your player dev group can do. The other major factor is the lost 2020 season has created questions about what kind of workload guys can handle.
