I think the pandemic shortened draft was especially harmful to the Astros because I think there is a significant advantage in a new GM’s first draft due to the ability to combine intel from 2 orgs, and less picks dramatically reduced that impact for Click. Luhnow’s 2012 draft was his best not just because of the high/additional picks and new pool rules allowing for bonus manipulation, but also because Luhnow had prospect info from both the Cardinals and Astros prior to that draft. That can be huge in solidifying opinions and firming up the draft board. I am hopeful the spillover from the reduced draft last season will help Click have a very successful 2021 draft, since there will still be a lot of prospects that were scouted by both Luhnow/Putila and Click. But not having those 1st 2 picks hurts worse than it otherwise would.
Sarcasm? Correa, LMJ, and Bregman by themselves probably produced/will produce more club controlled wins than half of the other teams entire drafts during Luhnow's tenure. Add in the other players drafted and/or acquired by trades including drafted players by Luhnow, three 100-win seasons with 1 WS win primarily built on drafts and trades.
I am pretty sure he’s referring to a previous comment (maybe even made by me) regarding Luhnow’s draft prowess. Especially when factoring in draft position due to tanking, Luhnow’s drafts really don’t stand out as a whole: -He crushed 2012, but was helped with extra picks and pool manipulation (which he does deserve credit for) -2013 and 2014 produced virtually nothing -2015 was very good -2016 looks to be a flop -2017-2019 are too early to tell (although none of those draftees are in current Top 100 lists). Really, his resume hinges on Correa (1-1) and Bregman (1-2), players drafted so highly that not getting a really good player would be a major indictment.
I don't really care if value is created in a few years, hinges on a few players or if evenly spread out among players or years. I care about total value and winning. Correa and Bregman have not just been really good players, and probably produced/will produce 20-30 more wins combined than should be expected from their draft positions. They were 2 of 4 position players that anchored the best teams in Astros history after being one of the worst teams in MLB history. The Astros are not the only team that tanked in the past ten years.
Totally agree. But drafting a star player with 1st and 2nd overall picks is not some great feat. It’s generally the expectation. I think my original comment was in response to posters who held Luhnow up as a generational talent when it comes to the draft, and that’s simply not true when put in context. He made some great moves and some bad moves, had some great luck and some bad luck. The same goes for his trades and free agent signings. Where Luhnow actually separated himself as a GM was in his ability to convince his owner to fully embrace tanking and see it through to the end.
There was an article before last season that totaled WAR from drafts for each team from 2010 through 2019. The Astros were No. 1. Springer is great, but the reason the Astros were number 1 is because Luhnow was a generational talent when it comes to the draft. You can say it was due to convincing owner/having high picks, but here's the deal, regardless of how Luhnow did it, it worked.
Pretty sure the Astros are still the only team to have three number 1 draft picks in a row. They may not be the only team to tank, but they did take it to another level.
The Baseball Analysts says they haven't even reached 10 yet. http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/06/draft_picks_and.php
My comments were specifically regarding Luhnow’s ability to acquire talent thru the draft relative to other GMs. I don’t want to recycle the whole “Jeff Luhnow was a .500 GM” debate. Jeff Luhnow was a good/effective GM? No argument. Jeff Luhnow was the best GM in history when it comes to making a plan, convincing the owner to tank, and sticking to it? Total agreement. Jeff Luhnow was an amazing GM when it comes to the Rule 4 draft? Nah.
That is career WAR. For draft pick value, club controlled WAR is more appropriate. Here's an article that shows that it is about 11 WAR for first overall: https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/
Which teams GMs drafted more talent in the Rule 4 draft than the Astros from 2010 to 2019 through the 2019 season?
Luhnow only oversaw the 2012-2019 drafts. He doesn’t get credit for Springer. “Talent” is a really vague criteria, but it would make total sense for Luhnow to be first from 2012-2017, since THEY LOST 300+ GAMES in 3 seasons (top 3 worst stretches in MLB history) and had the #1 overall pick for 3 straight years (followed by the # 5 pick). Again, drafting a star player with the #1 or #2 overall pick does not make a GM a generational drafting talent. Take away the context of tanking and draft position, and yes Luhnow looks ****in awesome at drafting. With the context of tanking, meh.
I agree in principle, but I do think that it is somewhat notable that Correa was a surprise #1 pick, and while Bregman was clearly one of the top players in the draft, Dustin Pedroia comps were seen as a dream scenario. Now they might be light.
