In hindsight I am sure that 29 teams have a decision they would change at the end of every season. Yes, the Rockets should have had contingencies and should have probably had some depth but their style of play only lost to an all time great team. And when you are paying someone a super max salary chances are you're not likely filling the roster with much more than complimentary scrubs who rely on your guy's singular greatness.
i hear ya... and agree for the most part... I just think back to the under utilization of Trez... running guys into the ground in pursuit of reg season glory - improper load mgmt for Harden, PJ, Ariza and others.... losing guys in meaningless games (LMM).... Melo/Bzdelik fiasco... trading CC in pursuit of some half baked small ball plan... WB trade trying to appease Harden... just pissed away opportunities imo.... i dont mention Ariza walking - i thought it was ridiculous to match the offer at the time... prob wrong... lol
Im in agreement with you. I still think the 5-men out set works.....just needs to be done more with 6'6" to 6'9" bodies. Allows us to play position-less basketball. College and Highschools are producing more and more 6'6" to 6'9" SF types that can do what Point guards and Shooting Guards can do. Nowadays it takes 2 or 3 Superstars to with the championship. Harden had the misfortune of his co-superstar being injured. First CP3 and then Westbrook last season. Which begs the question, why must we make one of our Superstars a long guard? Lillard, McCollum, Dragic, CP3, Westbrook, etc tend to get injured as each round takes its toll.
i think it all comes down to if you can shoot the 3 and garner a higher consistent return - than what you are allowing in high % buckets in the paint on the defensive end by being undersized (and rebounding deficiency)... period. The thing is... the #s get skewed... you can look at averages... but at some point its probably gonna come down to dealing with an upper level front court during your run... and thats when you are going to be abused - unless you are shooting lights out from 3. The way the Lakers figured out just to hammer it inside against us... You can look at averages - but the 3 ball is going to be more streaky - the consistency of an upper level front court against an undersized defense is going to be far more consistent... If you get blown out 1 qtr against a dummy team you have 3 qtrs to make it up... if you get blown out 1 qtr against a team that you are pretty evenly matched with qtr for qtr - its gonna be harder to make up for that blow out... ie - its more conducent to regular season matchups than against high caliber playoff teams. I think its a reasonable strategy for a less than championship caliber team - a little more risk for hopefully a return greater than the sum value of your pieces... but if you are a championship level team - its a unnecessary risk. idk... jus my rambling thoughts... lol
Rockets earned that worst team in NBA ranking. "You are what your record says you are." - Bill Parcells
I read an article a few years back, I believe it was from the Ringer. I have looked on their archives for it in the past but couldn't find it. It was basically speaking of the Rockets during the time we had Harden, Ariza, LMaM, EGo and the Rockets forced teams to cover the entire perimeter and the rim. The square footage required to cover the rim and entire 3 point line and everything in between is virtually impossible if done right. Rockets in 2019: we brought help to the paint by bringing defenders off the poor shooting Iggy and Draymond. Iggy shot 48% from 3 on 4.2 (3PA's) in our 6 game series. He then went out and hit 24% from 3 on 3.7 (3PA's) in 9 games during WCF's and NBA finals vs Portland and Raptors. Rockets doubled Steph Curry out on perimeter to get the ball out of his hands in the same series. Draymond received the ball from 3-pt line and headed to FT line. Forced the Rockets to send a defender to meet him at the FT line........as a result Draymond ended up with 10.7 rebs and 8.2 Ast's per game. Same philosophy in 2020 playoffs. Rondo is a poor 3-pt shooter; we laid off of him, he shot 44.4% from 3 on 3.6 (3PA's) per game. Denver tried the same thing defensively and Rondo shot 45.5% from 3 on 2.2 (3PA's). Miami lost BamBam in game 1 and Rondo hit 42.9% from 3 on 3.5 (3PA's) in the first 3 games. BamBam came back and Rondo ended up at 33.3% for the series. I'm guessing because BamBam needs less help from the perimeter defenders.......they could stay closer to their assignments......or maybe Rondo cooled off. My point is teams are getting enough players to have 4 to 5 prominent shooters from 3 on the court at the same time.......there is no running from the future of the NBA. It's already upon us. Unless the rules change, the 3 begets the scoring at the rim and the threat of scoring at the rim begets the opening for 3's. The old inside/out game of before, but used without the post up. I just don't see shooters afraid of PG' or DG's blocking their shots when rotating out. They see our guys running at them and it's like shoot around. SF's play a bigger role in that sense. I'm not against the mid range shot if done by the most proficient mid range shooters.
How long did it take Memphis to get where they are now? Just curious as I feel like their rebuild was on the fast track. I hope the Rox can duplicate this. Young stars with a few sprinkled vets to make some noise. Brooks and Morant are fun to watch. Cade and Porter could be even better.
Here's the numbers for 2021/22. Salary cap - $112,414,200 Cap Floor - $101,172,780 Tax Line - $136,605,810 Apron (Hard Cap) - $143,095,840 Committed salary - $99,588,454 Cap holds - $53,590,807 (not counting 2 incomplete roster charges totaling $1,832,552) $55,423,359 total. Space below the tax line - $37,017,356. NT-MLE - $9,535,740 T-MLE - $6,003,900 BAE - $3,731,690 Potential draft pick salaries - Lot of variables here. 1 - $8,131,200 2 - $7,275,200 3 - $6,533,300 4 - $5,890,300 18 - $2,347,300 21 - $2,065,700 24 - $1,827,900 Two of the cap holds can be thrown out the window .... Exum - $14,400,000 , he wont be back. DJ Wilson - $13,644,840 If he is brought back it wont be remotely close to that figure , I don't believe they bring him back. Then there's the cap hold of consequence - Kelly Olynyk $19,229,475. The rest of them are <$2m. The $99,588,454 in committed salary accounts for 10 roster spots. Lets assume that they retain Olynyk at ~$19m (his cap hold) You have a maximum of $12,024,800 for draft picks assuming they used all three of them and have the #1 overall. This would come out to $130,613,254 and leave you enough room to use your NT-MLE ($140,148,994) - above the tax line but below the apron by $2,946,846. In the tax to start the season but with a lot of room to maneuver back under .... and your roster looks like - Wall EG Augustin Bradley House KPJ Wood Olynyk MartinJr Tate Khyri MLE (Ntilikina?) Draft (Cunningham) Draft (Trey Murphy iii - 6'9" Wing 7'3" wingspan , 3.25:1 AST:TO The only 50/40/90 shooter in the draft) Draft (Jay Huff 7'1" PF/C .387 from 3 and a top tier defender) I'd expect them to move either Augustin , Bradley or both to duck the tax. Moving both of them for no returning salary gets you to $127,232,244 and two open roster spots. What happens on lottery day can change the cap hits by up to $5,783,900 should they end up with the Miami pick instead of the #1 I used to calculate all of the above.. If they end up with the #2 pick those numbers are off $856,000 , the #3 $1,597,900 and #4 $2,240,900 Essentially what you've done here is jettisoned all the G-League scrubs and replaced them with an MLE signing and three drafted rookies. That should spell significant improvement ..... but keep them firmly in the lottery.
Memphis over the past 5 years prior to this one lost in the first round 2 straight years, then were in the lottery 3 years in a row. The first of those 3 lottery years, they had the 2nd worst record in the league(22-60). Only Phoenix was worse at 21-61. And they had a 19-game losing streak that season. That does sound similar to what we just went through this year. So it's not unthinkable that the Rockets rebuild over the next two seasons(provided they hang onto their lottery pick this summer) and emerge as a tough 8th seed come 2024-25.
Honestly I think they "managed" some of those injuries. Exum was out with a "calf strain" ..... for the duration. EG's hammy .... 45 games. I'm almost certain there was a point at which he was 100% and could have suited up. House 36 games. Wood & Porter were held out at the end of the season .... If it mattered they'd have played. I think Wall could have played also at the end of the year .... if it mattered. They held Bradley out for a few games .... DJ Wilson the last month he just disappeared .... health and safety protocol my foot.
I think they can do that much sooner .... I'm looking at the 22/23 season as their return to the playoffs .... That is assuming they can move John Wall's expiring contract and other assets for an impactful player at the trade deadline.
Agreed that that is possible. If they walk away from the draft with Cade Cunningham and 2 other contributors then they could be well on their way to competing for a playoff spot in short order. With Wood. Porter, Tate, Martin and Olynyk (if re-signed) in the fold, adding 3 more contributors means they have a rotation that just needs time to incubate and gel. Letting that team take their wallops next season would serve the dual purpose of expediting the kiddos getting their sea legs and getting the Rockets another lottery pick (in addition to the Brooklyn and Milwaukee picks) in the 2022 first round.
Good stuff. One thing to consider which will impact the numbers a bit is that rookies can sign for 80-120% of scale, but in reality they almost always sign for 120% of scale. With 2021/2022 rookie scale also being slightly higher, that moves the max number for three draft picks to ~$14.8mm.
The problem with inception is being trapped in the rebuild dream within a dream and staying perpetually bad or mediocre at best.
Really in a league where more than 50% of the teams make the post season .... its not that big of an accomplishment or measuring stick. I think a lot of people are just down on the team for past issues (Tilman's cheap , throwing away assets to duck the tax). I believe as a new owner he thought he was gonna come in and clean house , be more efficient yet keep the same excellent level of play while saving that 5% bin the margins .... cept this aint a mediocre dining establishment , its an NBA team and the best players cost $$$ and the half of a percent in the margins is the difference between a win and a loss , never mind the 5% target .... Watching a team go from 65 wins and a CP3 rubber band away from a title to the leagues worst record by a whopping 3 games , I want to believe he's learned his lesson about playing in the margins ..... If he wants to win , he's gonna have to spend starting now. Even if they don't land a top 4 pick , I think they can still be back in the playoffs in the same time period .... The timeline is John Wall's contract - You move it for a quality addition you are an instant playoff team as long as you built the foundation between now and then. That's two off-season's worth of draft picks and salary exceptions. Olynyk's bird rights & Two MLE player acquisitions in the next two years to add to your list above and the draft picks are a bonus. You go into the 22/23 deadline with Wood , Porter, Tate, Martin , Thomas , Olynyk & two quality MLE acquisitions and you move Wall & picks for a top 20 player , that's a team that can make a deep run .
We don't have a win now squad. Wood is the only win now player we have. But has more growth in him. Gordon will need to recover from his injury. And even then mightn't be any good anymore. Wall isn't great. Tate is still learning. Olynk & Nwaba are probably not coming back. We are a young team that will finish near the bottom again next year & that's okay. Enjoy Porter's skills. Wood's explosiveness. Tate's hustle. Hope to get some more young talent. And hope they all put it together & get excited for the Rockets future.
I'd still prefer they just let Wall's contract expire and save the cap space for that summer. My fear is they panic and try to rebuild or reload too quickly and wind up taking on equally bad contracts in exchange for his.
