US industrial output rose a modest 0.7% amid shortages https://www.barchart.com/story/news/1702711/us-industrial-output-rose-a-modest-07-amid-shortages bad news so market goes up? i have no idea wtf is going on.
the fear of inflation is overblown.; 10 yr yield is still hovering in the 1.5 1.7 range perhaps this was the "doji" the market needed every index is up today, in particular NASDAQ
Hesitated on buying additional UBER even though it had tanked. Focused on buoying my Schwab account with index funds and ETFs (SDIV, SWPPX) for now.
thanks. a lot of macro noise, and hard to tell the extent of real inflation, and how much is artificial front running. i'll stick to ignoring cnbc and focus on companies i think will be making even more $ in a year or two.
sold some of my silicon stocks to add more to these 2 this week. STX up 12%, wdc up 8% today. there are only 3 HDD manufacturers and these 2 are the biggest (3rd is toshiba). They've already been doing well with the increase in pc usage last year, profitable with dividends, reasonable multiple and STX even does buybacks. What i'm hoping for is an even bigger demand spike due to crypto - (1) Chia (developed by bittorrent creator) uses hard disk to farm instead of GPUs to mine. (2) Eth eventually wll move to proof of stake instead of GPU mining, miners may look for other cryptos to support and mine/farm. Spent this week dabbling with chia farming and this is what i learned. Unlike reports of out china, Singapore hasn't run out of hard disks yet, but it's running out of skus which are ideal for farming (many shops were sold out of what i wanted). Chia is obviously driving purchases here as well. Network space is already at 4.7 exabyte, adding 0.5 exabyte a day (plot speed) and accelerating. Due to lag between plotting and farming, it's quite likely farmers have already bought MUCH more than that in spare capacity. If i invested in gear to plot 1 terabyte a day (plotting requires even more expensive hardware like fast SSD and cpu), and want to ensure i have enough storage to store and farm the plots for the next 3 months i would have to buy 90 terabytes of hdd storage. i won't be surprised if farmers have already purchased 50 exabyte of storage, and this can keep increasing. For context STX ships 140 exabytes of storage a quarter, and only a third of that goes to retail channels, the rest to OEMS and cloud providers. Chia is still new and may not take off. But even if this thesis doesn't play out i think it's quite low risk given that these 2 are already profitable in a near duopoly even without crypto.
fwiw, Carl Quintanilla is a CNBC anchor and 2 days ago, this guest on CNBC was talking about Hertz's successful auction of its assets, to exit bankruptcy, as well as becoming debt-free; the news update and the attendant analysis/opinion prompted me to make the play on Hertz
don't know whether to laugh or cry. my crypto bro (same parents) been killing it while i watch tech burn the last few weeks.
If only you had watched CNBC, you'd have known to rotate out of tech months ago. lol. Wonder if it's time to get back in?
Well i havent left. When I started buying seriously in 2019, back then was trade war fud, we are at ath, valuations too stretched, when will run end etc. Wish I could buy more at 2019 prices again. Maybe it's cos I don't live in stateside. We are locking back down. Stuff like zoom is as relevant as ever, companies are subscribing to corporate accounts, etc.
Yeah, but when you think about it, if you take a long-term approach we'll probably always be at an ATH. Yeah, things are opening up around here. Hopefully it'll stay that way. What I meant about getting back in was into the smaller cap/tech stuff. I'm always in the market in something. I'm always at least 10%-30% in cash. The problem is always deciding what to be in. I think some of what you're seeing is because you're not here. The fud is always a way to make a play in some sector. The trade war fud helped a lot of stocks in the steel, semi, etc. industries here, for example. Zoom is still relevant, but it's just that those companies skyrocketed and had to come back down at some point, not to mention a lot of people are going back into work at physical locations now, too. They got brought down along with the garbage stocks because they were high-flyers. BTW, the best thing about CNBC to me isn't that they tell you what to buy, but they show you what others think -- even if their positions are opposed to one another, you get multiple points of views. And they're the points of views of people that can generally move markets. Then you can make a decision on what to buy or not buy because you know somebody's going to be wrong. I also love the fact they mention stocks and sectors moving that I otherwise wouldn't notice. I worked in tech all my life and I'd be stuck buying tech all day long if I relied on companies I'm comfortable knowing. I wouldn't have followed SPACs until I listened to some broadcasts late last May-July about them. I also decided to dump them watching CNBC early this year. I really don't watch CNBC to see them be right -- I just want them to show me options.
T-7mins to launch edti: sigh, looks like there was an issue. can't catch a break. edit 2: re-read the SEC filings, looks like shares are still redeemable at nav prior to combination date. bullet dodged, hopefully.
Not making money in shitcoins doesn't bother me (not that ETH is a shitcoin). I'm in crypto, not ETH, and ETH seems viable, but those fringe shitcoins everyone is making money off of, man... it's like.... a study in human nature and not much more.
the thing i struggle to wrap my head around is this - take any of the hotshot SaaS companies i listed and their armies of software engineers, individually are the innovative products they make worth less than what ETH's team has done? collectively?? it's so crazy; but my bro's arugment is that i have to value it more like a visa.
Damn, dude, you're good! What did you buy? Actually, when I say "rotate out of tech", I don't mean you could continue to make 500% returns on no-revenue, no-product stocks. Maybe you'll go down 5% on the stocks you moved into (no one is always making money -- I think), but you're not getting wrecked to the tune of losing 40%-80% of the value of your stock like in those high-flyers from a few months ago. You can always get back into those later (if you want to). Besides, who knows if the sell-off rotation is over yet. The only question I'd throw back at you is, why then would you buy things like SPACs? They make a lot of the same promises that something like ETH, ADA, etc. all make and still haven't really come through and may not for years, if ever, but people were willingly gobbling up shares driving prices up (including me). I buy those crap stocks because it's easy money. Then I pray I can get out of them in enough time to keep most of that money. It's all speculation. ETH, MATIC, BTC, VET, ADA, DOT, etc. are all speculative to probably 90-99% of the people who own them just as QS, PLTR, PLUG, and damn-near everything Chamath Palihapitiya and Cathie Wood pimps/owns were. Did you ask the same thing of the latter or did you just buy it to make money? I'm guessing, just like me, you did it for the latter. In both of these cases, there are people making out like bandits and people getting burned badly. I really don't separate the two by much except that in the crypto world, you may have changes on a far more global scale than any stock we've mentioned. I mean, "yay, another electric car company". Wooptie doo. In crypto, at least the promises are possibly to change the foundations of commerce, transactions, governance, communication, etc. I'm more intrigued by what crypto has to offer than what 90-95% of the SPACs I was in were doing, but I also know much of crypto is full of shenanigans far worse than what's in the stock market.
^Crypto is like a gold hedge for the masses. It's also primed for the meme culture where tiktok/twitter investors can "venture seed" shitcoins and build off bottom line hype. The macro people turned crypto I've followed are beginning to become scummy/cultish (take your pick) as they're now as focused on the pump than realistic expectations. They know it's all about belief and driving numbers...it's reminding me more and more of gold bugs post 08. They've changed from calling a selloff their btc before year end to talking about the infinite potential of the space. They'll still probably unload for some profits w/o telling people. Following crypto is much easier for me than following different indices across sectors and figuring out where volume and industry demand is rising. Then there's the debate over inflation vs supply constrained price shocks. Some analyst pointed to the price of lumber vs its raw form (timber?). Lumber price is jacked up, but the raw form's price is mostly stable, which points to supply chain difficulties for the finished product. If the numbers shift in a few months, will the market frontload on that news as well? With no other game in town, I can't see a pullout unless there's another catastrophic credit crunch. Meanwhile, Fed wants to buy even more bonds...
of course i buy stuff i think will make money; doesn't mean i believe in everything i buy for short term, my recent crypto buys were doge and cate lol (sadly they doing much better than my stocks). QS had a $3bn valuation when we bought it, that's on a different scale from a 400bn crypto which people are saying is the "serious" coin for hodl. when i see the promises of eth and what has been delivered, has it really been multiple times more impactful than cloudflare or twitter?
