This move could pay for itself by the end of the year. The 2020 draft pushed a lot of talent to this draft. I'm thinking in particular the 4th year seniors in college that have probably just finished their degree and are starting to have to make some decisions about next year. The 2021 draft will probably 20 rounds, so there's going to be a lot of guys that thought they were going to be pros a year ago that end up undrafted. This should give the scouts an edge in persuading the guys when the money is all the same.
Christian Mejias finished off Fayetteville's 9-2 win over Kannapolis with four scoreless innings of relief. 4 IP, 3 H, 10 K
Given the total annual cost is roughly equivalent to one year of MLB league minimum salary for a single player, if paying for their housing nets one additional above replacement level player every 3-6 years, it’s paid for itself.
5 Way too early but intriguing stats from Astros Minor league hitters so far: .600 BA Taylor Jones. Taylor Jones got a brief look in the majors earlier this year, and has hit the ground running in AAA. Jones took full advantage of an early season series in New Mexico, and leads all of minor league baseball in batting average. The .667 BABIP isn't going to last, but 5 out of 12 hits have been for extras, and he has 6 BBs to 3 Ks. He's displayed his versatility so far playing less than half the games at 1st. (2 games at 1B,3B 1 game in LF) He's has no path to playing time if Bregman, Gurriel, Brantly, and Alvarez are all healthy, and Aledmys Diaz is already quite the luxury as a utilityman. His best shot may be playing himself into a trade with another team, especially if he could bring back a similarly talented reliever or CF. 3.33 BB/K Ronnie Dawson. Dawson was selected in the second round as a probable LF with power. Through sheer force of will, Dawson has a chance of sticking at CF, but he's struggled making contact in the upper levels of the minors. He made it through his 3 game stint in the majors without striking out, and has a whopping 10 walks to 3 strikeouts in the early going for the Skeeters. He's 26, and has been passed over in the rule 5 draft a couple of times, so he's probably running out of opportunities. With the lack of production the Astros are getting in center, Dawson might have a real chance to land a starting role if he's legitimately taken a step forward with the hit tool. 20% K% Joe Perez. A myriad of injuries and the pandemic has limited the former 2nd round pick to essentially a half season of games as a 19 year old facing guys who just finished their college careers. His sub mendoza-line batting average didn't exactly quiet the speculation that he belongs on the mound, though his 7 HRs put him in the top 10 in the league. Finally ready to play a full season, Perez started out hot, batting .320 with 5/6 BB/K. The power hasn't shown up yet, but it will if he keeps making contact. 5.8% swstr% Colin Barber. Going yard twice, Barber has already matched his total from the GCL. The 20 year old skipped low A and is playing for the Asheville Tourists. We knew this kid has a good power-speed combo, but an injury and subpar competition made his hit tool a question coming into the draft. The rough rule of thumb is that K% usually settles about 2x the swstr%, depending on the approach. Barber has been passive so far, leading to a 25% K rate (and 20%BB), and has done a good job of making contact when he swings. He was really pull happy in his GCL debut, but his homers have been to center and left center and he's had just 2 ground balls fielded on the right side of the infield, which is nice to see from a lefty. 209 WRC+ Nerio Rodriguez. One of the better 6 figure prospects in the class that saw the Astros sign Nova and company. Nerio's dad was a catching prospect that topped out at AA turned major league pitcher. After two years of poor production, the offensive-minded Rodriguez looked like he might not even match his dad's career as a catcher. He had a great 2019 repeating in the GCL, but was overshadowed in the system by the new additions of Korey Lee and CJ Stubbs as well as a Nathan Perry breakout. He's rule 5 eligible already, which complicates his prospect status/trade value, but he's also a 21 year old that plays a position with a very low offensive bar, and he might have an automated strikezone by the time he's ready.
Great stuff. Most everyday minor leaguers are about halfway to some meaningful stat counts. But here’s my list of early stats that draw my attention: Good: Barefoots power Dawson’s overall batting line Nerios overall batting line Perez’s overall batting line Hensley’s power Siri’s power Jones’s overall batting line Meyers power Kessinger power and low k rate Hinojosa’s overall batting line Barbers power Papierski overall batting line Santana’s power Correa’s overall batting line McKennas power Berryhill power Dirdens power Bad: Whitcombs k/bb rate Kessingers low bb rate CJ Stubbs overall batting line Adolphs overall batting line Novas lack of playing time Leon’s overall batting line Daniels k rate Matijevic low SLG Perry, Brewer, Pena, and Toro being hurt Most of those will be dramatically different even 10 games from now. But for now there’s a lot of encouraging stuff and not too much bad stuff (really nothing meaningful outside of Leon’s struggles).
Several years ago I built a model that produces prospect grades using weighted Fangraphs advanced stats as well as some other external data (only for position players). I have been very pleased with its predictive accuracy, especially when it comes to the highest end prospects. It has only predicted a handful of prospects to be everyday major leaguers since 2018 (using full season data): Kyle Tucker, Gilberto Celestino, Jonathan Arauz (it LOVED him due to his young age relative to his league), Yordan Alvarez, Freudis Nova, Deury Carrasco (based on rookie ball data), Derek Fisher, Seth Beer, Abraham Toro, and Daz Cameron. I loaded the first 2 weeks of 2021 stats and it REALLY likes Ronnie Dawson and Colin Barber predicting them to be stars based on their early 2021 data. It also likes Freudis Nova, Mike Papierski, and Taylor Jones as future average everyday players.
Are any Skeeters games going to be broadcast on TV? Seems that these other triple A teams have a home broadcast.
Jimmy Endersby allowed a two-run homer for Asheville, but the good thing was that it was the only hit he allowed in 5 innings. 5 IP, H, 2 ER, BB, 7 K
Round Rock is radio-only as far as I know, it is tonight or I'd have it on TV. Teams naturally take video but it is not broadcast. MiLB teams want asses-in-seats at the park.
Fayetteville rallied from 6-0 down to walk off with a 7-6 win. They allowed six runs... and two hits. The bullpen technically did a Kent Emanuel... although the first guy allowed all three of the runners he inherited to score. Kevin Holcomb: IP, 4 BB, 3 K; allowed 3 of 3 inherited runners to score Jeremy Sprinkle: 1.2 IP, H, BB, 4 K Peyton Plumlee: 4 IP, BB, 7 K Jaime Melendez: 2 IP, 4 K
Schroeder: 4 IP, 3 BB, 4 K Jaquez: IP, 2 K Macuare: 4 IP, BB, 7 K R.J. Freure @ Bowling Green: 5 IP, H, BB, 6 K Brett Conine @ Round Rock: 5 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 4 K
