Unfortunately, it doesn't take a majority of representatives in the case of the 12th amendment event. Each state will have only have one vote. So the power breakdown is much more like the Senate since large population blue strongholds like California and New York will only have 1 vote each. Even though Democrats had the majority of seats in the House in 2020, Republican actually had the majority of representatives in 25 states, Democrats had 23, and there were two ties. So it only takes a minority of Republicans to decide the president.
"The collapse of the GOP? It's just wishful thinking": https://theweek.com/articles/981981/collapse-gop-just-wishful-thinking
The Republicans would never explicitly run on overturning fair elections. But what they will run on (and are in fact already running on) is the idea that Democrat victories are the result of fraud (Republican votes being thrown out, illegal immigrants voting, votes being changed due to "insecure" voting methods like drive-thru voting or mail-in ballots). They'll argue that Democrat party corruption and cheating has forced them to take measures to protect the votes of "real Americans." We already know the base Republican (emphasis on base here, so I won't be accused of hate-mongering again) voters eat this nonsense up, because the media bubble they live in has told them for decades that radical Democrats are the villain and will do anything to steal this country away from the conservative "silent majority." I'm not sure any messaging or education by Democrats can change their minds (or even reach them reliably - they aren't going to watch any media that would provide counter data and Fox/OAN/Newmax sure as hell aren't going to broadcast it). We all assumed that this base would shrink as older white voters passed away and were increasingly replaced by minority voters. Unfortunately, the last election showed an uptick in some of the more conservative, male minority populations voting Republican. So I'm not sure if the Republican base will shrink the way we predicted. I hope I'm wrong here. As for suburban voters (some of whom are base Republicans and some are base Democrats, but for this purpose, I'm talking about the swing voters), my biggest fear is that the ones who are largely motivated by taxes and/or their disdain for "identity politics" (which to many of them is simply any political activism that promotes the needs of non-whites) will slip back to voting Republican now that Trump isn't in their face on a daily basis. The goal for Democrats must be to convince these voters that a GOP-led government (even without Trump) isn't good for their interests. I think Biden is making the case through his actions (and to a very minor degree, McConnell through his inaction), but he's going to hit some road bumps and there's no guarantee that swing voters (who have been largely shielded from the most harmful consequences of Republican policy) won't buy into the conservative messaging that a Republican will do a better job (and lower their taxes which is always popular even if they aren't getting the bulk of the benefits). If they find that message persuasive, they will elect Republican representatives and/or Senators (on the state and federal levels) in 2022, thus giving the GOP back the majority in Congress. Those Republican majorities would then be very likely (given what we've seen) to support any challenges to a Presidential vote certification. Granted this is all a worst case scenario, but unfortunately, I think there is a realistic chance of it happening like that. However, I don't think it's inevitable if Democrats can keep Jan 6th fresh on people's mind, and (more importantly) use it to taint the political reputations of all Republicans in swing districts/states who voted against certification.
To answer you and Dobro. That is true but to get to the 12th Amendment vote there has to be not enough Electors to declare a winner. On Jan. 6th the hope that Trump et al had was that several states wouldn't be certified so that there wasn't a majority of electors. The problem with that was that the certification of each slate of electors is done by the full House followed by the full senate if there is an objection. The only other option would be if Pence decided not to do his job. There is nothing in the Constitution that says that if the VP isn't presiding over the vote what happens. Tradition is that the President Pro-Temp presides when the VP can't. That is Democrat Patrick Leahy. As Republicans were the minority they weren't able to stop the certification votes or have the VP stop the certification vote to get to the point where the House votes with each state having a single vote. The most that could've happened is certification is delayed indefinitely but either way according to the Constitution on Jan 20th at noon Trump and Pence's term would've ended. The only hope then is that they throw the Constitution out and essentially have a putsch to stay in power.
According to post mortem's of the last two elections Republicans are hemorrhaging support among white college educated voters. They did better than expected black and Latino males and continue to remain strong among non-college educated white voters. While there are certainly movement and economic conservatives many of those have left the party over Trump and politicians like Rubio and Jordan embracing populist anti-corporate messages don't play well to them. While Trump was a big factor turning off voters, particularly white college educated women, even though he's not on the ballot if the Republicans choose to run like Trump and especially on a platform that the election was stolen from Trump that's not going to win back voters. As much as it fires up their base running 2022 and 2024 as vindication over 2020 is going to get a backlash. If I was a Democratic strategists I would hope they would run on the argument that 2020 was stolen rather than running on things like the poor job Biden is doing on immigration, how his spending plans might be excessive or against Democratic tax policies. Republicans going all in that 2020 was stolen and they need to restrict voting to restore "election integrity" is likely going to fire up the Democrat base and get them out to vote more.
They are not collapsing, but they are transforming into a mainstream BS-lead Q/Trump party @Os Trigonum
As expected, republicans ousted Liz Cheney from her leadership position in the senate in response to her speaking out against trump and the Big Lie. It truly is the retrumplican party.
So the question now is which side of the Republican schism will do better in next few years of elections. If the non-Trumpers manage to fight back and increase their number of office-holders, then there may be a chance that the party can be redeemed. However, if the Trumpers succeed in ousting most or all the non-Trumpers, then our country has a major problem - not just with the GOP politicians but with its voters as well. It will take a major GOP bloodbath in 2022 to turn things around, and a whole host of factors (history, gerrymandering, voting restrictions, etc) are working against that.
I suspect it will be the trump side of the republican party. It has shown that, unburdened by things like integrity and morality, it can win. And if it can't win, they can lie and cheat to make it possible to win next time. Thus, someone that speaks out against trump gets pushed out while those that fully support him (mtg, boenert, cruz) move forward.
I agree. The crazies energize the base. What I’m concerned about is the Howard Stern/Jackass downward spiral that will take place and is taking place by MTG, Boebert, etc. where to gain popularity you need to be more and more radical than the next candidate. 2024 will be something to behold as the right will have a knife fight in who can out crazy who to win the nomination. Then if they win they’ve gone so far with the crazy train they will likely start pushing crazier policies. Like the don’t teach racism in class laws.
