Hard to take at bats away from Yordan tho. He could play first on days off for yuli I guess? Only real positive is he knows how to hit at Minute Maid..
Only team that should sign Pujols is a rebuilding team that literally wants to lose to get a higher draft pick and also wants Pujols around to mentor their young hitters and sign autographs for fans. And even then he would be their 13th position player as a backup 1B/DH. Orioles, Tigers, or Rangers would be the 3 teams that might make some sense.
In the past, guys who had ERAs lower than their FIPs, xFIPS year after year either had a pitch(es) that caused batters to routinely hit under or over a pitch(es) significantly more than average. I don't think it is a coincidence that the Astros have 3 young guys (Javier 1, Urquidy 2, Garcia 9) on the Under% Leaderboard (min 75 PAs). I also don't think it is a coincidence that Javier and Urquidy are in the Top 10 Starters in ERA-FIP from 2020-2021 (min 60 inn). Garcia would be 8th if he had enough innings. If Javier keeps his K% and BB% at their current spot, he might drop from this ERA - FIP list as he might not have enough batted balls to make a significant difference going forward outside of random variation. Granted, I think Javier will regress some as he's only had one or two starts that Dusty pushed him to the point later in the game when he wasn't getting Ks often.
Astros are about 5 wins off from where we all hoped they’d be. Here’s my take as to why: Bottom of the order struggles: Tucker, Straw, and Maldonado have cost them 1-2 wins. Bullpen struggles (outside of Pressly): Smith and Raley are the obvious culprits, but really none of the relievers outside of Pressly and Stanek have been good, and i think it’s cost them 1-2 wins. Underwhelming starting pitching: the rotation has combined for 1.8 fWAR over 178 innings. They are on pace for ~7-8 fWAR total over the season. None of them have been awful, but after Javier’s dud last night, none of them are pitching all that well. As to how that projects moving forward: I think Tucker and Maldonado will round into form. CF will need to be addressed at the deadline if this team expects to contend. I also think the bullpen will get sorted out. Guys will get healthy. Young guys will get established. But for now they definitely need to stop going to Raley and Smith in high leverage situations. I am not sure what to expect out of the rotation. The hope would be that Odorizzi and Valdez come back soon and are effective, Javier and Urquidy continue to learn and improve, and Greinke and McCullers stay healthy. But I do see quite a bit of risk in there. We are pretty much stuck with this team, so hopefully they get on track.
Definitely not a super team anymore but with so many young players showing flashes of brilliance this could be again be a dangerous team in the playoffs. Just gotta keep themselves in playoff contention.
I do think if they’d done something else in CF and if Valdez/Odorizzi/Baez were healthy, this would be a lot closer to a “superteam”. Yordan Alvarez looks like the 2nd coming of Barry Bonds or David Ortiz. Yuli is playing like a hall of famer in the last couple years of his prime. Bregman and Brantley are studs. Correa and Altuve haven’t been as good but the top 2/3 of this lineup is on par with any in the league. It’s just a shame they punted in CF. The pitching staff hasn’t been great but aside from Smith and maybe Raley there’s not a pitcher on the staff that doesn’t look like they belong. Hopefully these young arms take steps forward instead of get figured out by opposing hitters.
Verlander 33 million Baez 6.25 million Odorizzi 9 million Pruitt 617k James 602k Framber 637k Total= 50.106 million So for 50 million dollars in salary the Astros have gotten 8 innings in 3 starts from Odorizzi with a 10.13 ERA and 1.625 WHIP so far. Astros can't afford to have 25% of the payroll on the shelf and still compete. We don't have all that star power either before arbitration, in arbitration, or on a team friendly deal (Altuve) like we had in 17. Also, I question how the medical staff evaluated Framber. Had Click known Framber would be coming back maybe not blowing the last little bit of salary room under the luxury tax on Odorizzi would have been a better move. Click is going to have to get creative or give away more prospects so teams will eat salary to make any impact moves on this roster and stay under the tax. Without a better option in CF and getting solid production from Framber, Baez, Paredes, and Taylor I don't view this team as a World Series contender.
Astros lead the way with IL payroll. A lot of the top payroll teams have 30+ million on the IL. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/
Correa bet on himself and expects this huge payday, and he's flat out not delivering. He has had the biggest mouth since the controversy, but in the 350 PA last season and this season he's posted a .711 OPS. According to statcast, him Tucker and Altuve should all be getting much better results. Lets hope that plays out.
the COVID outages also cost 1-2 wins and shouldn’t recur. Paredes, Valdez, Baez, Odirizzi coming back, plus expected reversion to form for Tucker would completely change the complexion of the season even if Yuli cools off (and he’s the only one I see as massively outperforming now that Brantley has cooled off). A more even catcher platoon will help, and at some point that will happen if Maldy can’t snap out of it (and recent days are a good indication he will). CF is a major issue, but it is the only hole that can’t be fixed through health and better luck. Given where the league is at this year, this squad is still right there at the top even if nothing happens at center.
Yeah Correa is on track for a make-good 2 year incentive laden deal or a 5-6 year deal somewhere in the $120-170M range.
I'm actually whelmed by the starting pitching. Greinke is going to have games where his stuff just doesn't work... then he's going to still be able to throw 7 (or 8) scoreless. Same goes for Javier, with less chances of him going deeper. Urquiddy is actually a poster-child of why MLB is considering lowering the mound... he puts pressure on teams by throwing strikes, whereby they hit into the shift, or swing/miss. He's being ridiculously efficient while throwing 6-7 innings now with ease. LMJ is certainly still going to be spotty. Post high K numbers. Battle command almost randomly. He could post a 15K game or a 3 IP 7 BB game and neither would surprise me. The only hope is that his new-found slider against righties, and the still elite curveball against lefties, continues to mystify... especially when hitters start to look for those pitches and he changes it up on them. In the end this lineup 'should' be better... with Tucker, Correa, Altuve underperforming and Bregman also not necessarily doing what he's capable of. If they become consistent and stay healthy, I think this team has more than enough.
they seem to be proving they can afford to have 25% of the payroll on the IL cuz they’re not out of it by any means.
completely agree. The rotation looks a lot better than it could have. None of the young (or old) guys fell off. Easily could have had some rotation regression like the pen had
