A good portion of Urquidy's career was without spring training, after having Covid, and staying in his apartment for 35 days. Urquidy velo has been down this year slight, except it was down a lot in Colorado, until it was back his last start. He might only be a number 4 on a contending team. He might also be the Astros best pitcher this year (i.e., produce the most fWAR). If Strom can get him to stop giving in and throwing so many fastballs middle middle, he'll be a lot better pitcher. Astros have a lot of interesting pitchers that I wouldn't put a ceiling on.
Given the above, his career WHIP under 1, and the fact that he has performed this way through the minors ... why is he a SP3 instead of (at least) a SP2? Do you believe there will be ~50 starters better than him a few years from now? Heck, his career numbers are better than almost any SP1 ... I'm not saying he necessarily will be an ace, but to peg him as 'very possibly' someone you'd feel comfortable with giving a game 3 start in the playoffs feels pessimistic or based on something besides his actual track record.
Never understood the obsession of attaching SP3 vs. SP2 vs. SP4/5 labels to a starting pitcher. Probably the same obsession with the power rankings. If a pitcher is capable of going 6 innings or 2-3 times through an order without an astronomical drop-off in peripherals, they remain a starter.
I don't believe you can use such a small sample size to say oh this guy is going to be a 2 or a 3 or whatever. Dallas Keuchel is an obvious example. In 2012 and 2013 he made a total of 38 starts. He was awful with a 9-18 record, 5.20 ERA, 78 ERA+, 4.78 FIP, and a 1.540 WHIP. In 3 of the next 4 seasons he had an ERA under 3, won a Cy Young, and had a WHIP in the 1.1s or lower. Urquidy has 18 starts and has been far better than Keuchel was in 2012 and 2013. How do we know he isn't going to take a big step up like Keuchel did? Also, look at Charlie Morton. Before coming to Houston his best ERA+ in a season was 109 at age 29. He comes to Houston and puts up 113 and a 133 at ages 33 and 34. Then he follows that up in Tampa with his best season ever with a 142 ERA+ at age 35. I get wanting to try and analyze players for forming rosters in the future. I really feel like you just have to wait until the end of the season and see how it shakes out. We all know how one injury to someone like Verlander can totally flip any analysis of the team on its head.
I am generally pessimistic on pitching prospects. But also a lot of Javier’s success comes from deception rather than velocity. I am by no means an expert but would guess after awhile hitters will be more prepared for his style. That said, a playoff #3 is a really really valuable player and likely one of the top 75 starting pitchers in the league so I don’t think there’s a huge gap between that and a more general #2.
Astros notes from today’s Goldstein chat: Leon has huge power/arm/speed, but hit tool might be 40/45. CJ Stubbs is on the radar. Has power and can play catcher. Javier is a viable #3. Hunter Brown’s stuff is elite. Bregman cannot be a good SS. Not necessarily Astros related but he mentioned Tampa will be looking to move Adames later this season when Franco is ready to be called up. I could see Houston being interested in him and Margot if Tampa sells this year. Neither guy is a star but both could serve as valuable insurance next season and give Click lots of options. Also helps that Click is very familIar with both players. Likely would not take much as both guys are arb eligible; maybe a package of 3-4 2nd or 3rd tier guys (Margot and Adames for Toro, Nova, and Solomon?)
I agree with all this and think it points to the fact that pitchers are just far more difficult to project than position players. But a guy making a jump like Keuchel or Morton did is pretty rare so it’s probably not a good idea for a GM to count those extreme outcomes in their analysis, since they are the exception, not the rule. A guy in his late 20s seeing a huge jump in velocity, stamina, reliability, or just overall pitch effectiveness is great when it happens but I wouldn’t count on it.
It's even more rare for a contending team like the Astros are now. You can't let a guy stink it up for 2 years before he figures it out when you are trying to make the playoffs.
lmao Maldy has a .180 xwOBA with 70 PA this season. That is tremendously poor even for that sample size. There's three hitters in all of baseball right now that have seen at least 200 pitches like Maldy (286 qualifying hitters using this cutoff) and have an .xwOBA below .200. Click might be second guessing proceeding with that extension so early in the season.
Somewhat disagree with the notion that hitters will solve his “deception”. They’re straight up not seeing the ball well out of the hand. That’s not an easy fix. This may be recency bias but it seems like Javier’s both held his velocity later into the game as well as been more effective when his FB in the 91-92mph range than last year. I’m always holding my breath when he gets a base runner on cuz he’s not the kinda pitcher that easily gets himself out of trouble with quick outs but he’s otherwise pitched very well.
Who's the greatest SP2 of all time? Or the greatest SP3 of all time? Talking about how good a player is, based on actual data, but then trying to attach a SP2 or SP3 ceiling (regardless of team) is just about as arbitrary as power rankings.
SP2 or SP3 is the same as saying Straw is a horrible defender and expecting that he will continue despite career numbers because this is the first time he's playing consistently. They are just labels/word placed on players to aid in describe a player (i.e., a way to communicate data). Data isn't good without communication. On power rankings, they are usually just regency bias for people that don't want to use actual projections.
Not sure how its “the same”... but Straw is a below average defender. If you really want to fall on that sword, so be it. CF is a novel position for him and every bit of it shows. He does look better out there when the team gets better starting pitching that doesn’t rely on plays in the gap or deep fly balls. Meanwhile, there really is no such position in baseball as a SP2 or SP3. It’s not like a backup QB or a 6th man or any other actual defined role that would dictate playing time, alter a game plan, or something you scout differently for. A lot of teams have rotational starters that could be an opening day starter... and some have opening day starters that wouldn’t start elsewhere. As you know, the most efficient use of a starter in this system would be to have them go 4-5 max-effort innings and have solid multi-inning relievers (who can pitch every other day) for the rest of the game. Is that a #2? Is that a #3? Are they an ace if they don’t give anything up? Are they a glorified opener? Nomenclature! Semantics! Words without friends! Somebody took their literal pills this morning...
There is no such position as "below average defender". It’s not like a backup QB or a 6th man or any other actual defined role that would dictate playing time, alter a game plan, or something you scout differently for relative to the label SP2. On the SP2 label, these guys are roughly the 11th-30th best pitchers on the planet. If you don't think a player being better than almost all of his peers affects playing time, game plan, or scouting, all I can say is wow.
Not sure why you’re getting hostile. I didn’t bring Straw into this conversation, you did. I’m not arguing that these guys aren’t good. I’m suggesting that people labeling somebody an SP2... where if they truly are in the top 30 pitchers in this league, why couldn’t they be an SP1?... or automatically saying somebody maxes out as an SP3 (as some of the pundits are suggesting for Javier and Urquiddy) is largely a thoughtless provoking exercise. As you know, starters aren’t what they used to be... nor should they necessarily continue to be used as they used to be.... yet some are still obsessed with labeling them these arbitrary numbers. If you’re a starting pitcher in baseball... to me that means you can face batters more than one or two times without much regression... and your stuff/arm is stretched out enough to continue to be effective after a certain number of pitches.
Astros and yanks, hopefully they stay safe in that stadium. Get some good healthy sportsmanship called baseball and good games coming this week. Hopefully astros win the series. But knowing them yankee fans, im sure some will get ejected, and alot of boos.
