Stupid question but why is assumed good for Republicans that Texas is gaining 2 House seats? I guess it all depends on where that is, but wouldn't it likely be Tarrant, Denton, (DFW growing areas) or Fort Bend, Montgomery (Hou growing areas)?? If one of those is aligned to the Austin area that's not good news for Republicans. Collin Alred won the Dallas suburbs in his race. He's probably unique but it shows that the Texas suburbs are always in play with the right candidates. .... However it does look like the Census did what the Republicans were hoping it would do. Which is get low responses in NY, CA, and Illinois. The Democratic party needs to do everything it can to grow it's ground game in Texas, AZ, GA, and find a way to be competitive in Florida again somehow. The Repugs are going on a full on assault of Democracy, and if you cannot see what they are trying to do here to setup an American Apartheid then you are a blind. Just as a history lesson about how Republics feel about minority rule: https://www.salon.com/2011/02/05/ronald_reagan_apartheid_south_africa/
Look at how congressional boundaries get drawn out: https://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/tpp/maps/congressional/2021/congressional-map.pdf Republicans love this game.
I mean I don't discount their ability to draw up some ridiculous Dan Crenshaw like districts. But really those Woodlands type areas are going to be harder and harder to single out when you have so many surrounding diverse suburbs around those coveted higher end areas that would skew the balance. Dan Crenshaw won by 7 points only, and has one of the most obnoxiously draw districts that he should be ashamed of being known as the guy from THAT district. It's likely that the Dems lose the House in 2022, and this shows why it was so important to the Trump cult that the Census get as screwed up as possible to get exactly these type of results. I just think that Texas is a real vulnerability where they think it's a slam dunk. But look... Democrats need to show up where the voters are here, and especially where the non-voters are. If there was some way of having a gerrymandering referee then I wouldn't be too concerned about this new Congressional Map, but for now unless HR1 is passed I do believe this will almost surely get the Republicans the House and it's likely Gym Jordan is the Speaker of the House. McCarthy is incredibly weak and wont stand a chance if they are allowed to vote for who they actually want if they win the House.
If Trump Admin had not been allowed to end the count two weeks early by the SCOTUS, New York probably would have counted 89 more people.
Well to be fair, Minnesota also could have kept pace. Minnesota had the highest response rate in the US last year (and it wasn't even close). Minnesota just hustled its way into keeping its districts. With that said, all of that fearmongering about illegal immigrants and the citizenship question resulted in serious undercounts of latinos. Arizona didn't even gain one seat this go around which was really surprising (and that 9th district was likely going to a Republican leaning district). Florida also only gained one seat and New York was also likely affected by the undercounting. Meanwhile places like Minnesota, Rhode Island and Alabama managed to keep all of their districts which was not at all expected. Trump actually screwed over the Republicans (as some predicted) with his hysterics about illegal immigrants. Florida should've gained a second seat and Texas could've gained a third (provided those governments actually put some money into census counting).
A computer program should draw the districting maps. Do it the most efficiently way possible that would encourage turnout because of those efficiencies.
I'm probably the only one posting in this thread that actually worked for the 2020 Census. Even more to the point, I did it in Montana....a reliably red state and one of those states that will gain a representative. I'm not here to argue for or against gerrymandering. Both parties do it where they have control so it's a pox on both houses. I'm posting mainly to give y'all my experience in working in the 2020 Census. It's anecdotal, but from several of the people I met while there, my experience was typical. (warning: long read ahead. tldr ~ The Census Bureau is really a ****ed up organization even by Government standards. Trump being blamed primarily for an inaccurate count shows ignorance of how the count really went last year.) To start with, understand that the Census Dept is only in existence during the year of the Census. Other years, the people who work as higher ups generally come from other places in the Dept of Commerce. So you're dealing with an organization that essentially is built from scratch every 10 years. Now add to that the mess Covid-19 did to the entire Census and you get a gigantic mess. I contacted the Census recruiters initially in Nov 2019 to be hired as an enumerator (the folks that do the interviews in public with those who have not returned their Census questionnaires). I was not contacted till late February 2020 about a job. The interview process was easy, done over the phone and basically as long as you can pass a background check, they hire you. I got the impression throughout the time I was with the Census they were severely understaffed (at least in Montana) as they were hiring as late as June 2020. In any case, I did the steps to complete a background check in March and was told I would be contacted to report to train in week 1 of April. Then, the world changed due to Covid and we were put on hold. But here's the thing. Nobody called or informed me...I had to find out by investigating it. I waited and waited to hear from them. I called the office number I had several times and nobody answered. I even one time spoke to someone in June who stated they would be starting in late June and to hang on they would be in touch. That never happened. I essentially went for almost 6 months without hearing from anyone at the Census. Finally, I had given up they would ever call. Then lo and behold in very late August, they contacted me to tell me orientation was to be first week in Sept. I attended this and got my equipment (bag, forms, iPhone) and went home to do the online training. I finished that and was told to expect a phone call to complete my training with a "capstone" call to review my learnings after which I would start enumerating. I never got this call. That day I called and texted TWO of the trainers I met at orientation in early Sept and they promised to look into it. Nobody ever called me back. At this point I said, "**** this". This is stupid. I held on to my stuff including the phone knowing someone would eventually contact me about returning it and I wanted to insure I got paid for my training before returning it. I DID get paid for 20 hours of online training and during the conversation where I filled out my time sheets I spoke to the woman handling the submission of time sheets about my experience. She told me my story was VERY typical and she had spoken to dozens of people hired just like me who actually never worked a day in the field. And this in a state shorthanded for help and with only 4-6 weeks to complete the count. I doubt very highly I could ever be talked into working for the US Census again.
I would imagine Covid had a little bit to do with that, plus you had a government actively trying to undermine it. I'm shocked by your experience.
What are you talking democrats don't do it in their states that's the issue. California/virgina/Colorado/New york/Oregon the party doesn't draw the districts. In Washington the dems just gave up drawing the districts to gop for no good reason. Dems take it in the ass while screaming morality. Republicans do it at every opportunity and rig the system while they cry election fraud. The only way to fix this is for dems to gerrymander EVERY state they can Nd really expose the bs system. The Republicans only know dirty tactics
Considering the org is destroyed and rebuilt every 10 years this sounds entirely expected. Add in COVID/remote work and yeah this isn't a big shocker.
