Certainly if Straw busts and they don’t make a move to improve in CF, that will be a ding on Click, especially if a CF who was available last offseason plays well (ahem, Akil Baddoo). Click was pretty hamstrung coming into this season. He already had more holes than money and prospects, then he lost his 2nd best SP. This roster/farm really wasn’t built to easily sustain losing Verlander, much less Verlander and Valdez. I will mainly be judging Click on how the farm progresses and which deadline deals he makes. How McCullers, Brantley, and Odorizzi perform will also be important since Click invested significant resources in those guys. But these tiddlywinks deals (signing Castro/Baez, giving Straw a crack at CF, etc.) won’t be what makes or breaks Click.
If Joe Smith continues to get bombed he needs to do the Astros a favor like Jay Bruce did for the Yankees and retire.
The Astros are at a point where they either need to get a couple surprises from their minor league system or they need to get lucky in adding a player or two that costs little but will be productive. It is clear that centerfield is a problem, and I do not have much confidence in Straw filing the hole. KG told me that Straw simply does not and isn't capable of hitting the ball hard, and that makes his margin for error even smaller. With the catching issues on offense, that really harms the Astros. I also do not have a lot of confidence in the Astros bullpen depth. It is possible that they can cobble together enough if Baez comes back and maybe Smith improves.
I think they could put together a "playoff" pitching staff since this year should be a normal playoff schedule with off days. Greinke, Valdez, McCullers, and Urquidy/Odorizzi in the rotation. Then Pressly, Baez, Javier, and Stanek are your go to guys in the pen. Then hope that at least one more guy from Abreu, James, Paredes, Taylor, Garcia, or Scrubb can be counted on and that is good enough for the playoffs. The problem is the regular season. We have several very long stretches with no days off. We have 13 games in a row starting tomorrow. Then one day off and another 13 games in a row. In June/July we have a stretch of 20 games in a row. Also, a 17 game stretch towards the end of the season. The bullpen will be burned if they can't get more guys to contribute.
Straw has way too long of a swing for what he is supposed to be. I know the Astros will give him a longer shot than most of us want, but the fact that McCormick hasn't had ONE start in CF is annoying as hell. Everybody else at least gets a day off, but Straw just gets thrown out there every damn day. Especially when the Astros have seen so many left handed starters... McCormick has really good numbers against lefties in the minors, and clearly he has way more pop than Straw.
I don't have a lot of confidence in the bullpen right now. Too many guys hurt and sucking (or playing less than 100%) at once. I expect Astros will get healthier and some of the guys sucking will figure out what's wrong. I don't have much faith in Smith being one of the ones that gets dependable in a high leverage situation. I still think this will be an average or slightly above average. Though, I think a lot of pens are going to suck this year. The biggest things that scares me about the bullpen are Dusty and the general fear of lack of pitching. Maybe the Astros don't have enough pitching to handle a season's worth of injuries. I worry they will get picked apart if they don't risk it and use their backup starters in the pen more. Garcia should be a tandem starter or be getting 3 innings every 4 days. I liked that Solomon pitched yesterday, but it seemed to take too long to get him up to majors. I get Astros are trying to manipulate an extra year out of Javier, but they've pissed away some games that are likely very important along with getting screwed over by MLB. Until the pen gets right, the Astros need to play to win. On CF, I'm okay taking a mulligan if the other positions hit. Castro, Yuli, Jones, and De Goti can't carry the lineup by themselves. Astros will likely need to trade away someone to get salary to fit in a CF better than Straw or for Crane to say F#$% it, go over the CBT.
I don't care if Straw can't hit.... but he has to be able to field balls that have a 95% catch probability. He looked flat-out lost out there on some of those hits. He's also had some near collisions with other OFers and Altuve... too many in such a short period of time. Yes, he can get better on the truly routine stuff... and occasionally his speed will allow him to make a spectacular diving play that others may not have gotten to.... but he's not going to turn into an above average OF.
Yep, Straw is in the weird place that he's probably slightly better than average on defense (edit: I think he's just had a bad run of below average defense), but so below average on offense that it is going to be frustrating to find out if he's a bad, but playable starter with this lineup or a 4th OF at best. I do worry that his defense isn't good enough for what he hits as he needs to be near perfect on balls he can get. Not directed at you, but I do not consider a player playing more than his skill/salary dictates to be a fault of the player.
As far as his defense, there were enough adventures out there last year to raise my concern. He was not a textbook late inning defensive replacement over Reddick (who’s defense plummeted) yet that was how he was used. He struggles on balls he has to run back on. He struggles to call guys off or avoid collisions on balls he has to come in on. Yes, he’s cheap.
And yet he's still caught 87% of balls hit to him this year which is only a smidge below average. For his career, he's been a smidge above average defender which usually isn't good enough for a defense-first player to be a starter in CF. I'm more concerned with his arm than his legs regarding defense.
I think I've been pretty consistent when it comes my thoughts on Click. He didn't get an everyday CF and it's costing them games. Would you rather right now have a vet CF and Stubbs at catcher or Castro and his .118 avg and Straw? I do think if Click gets very lucky and McCormick turns into a viable CF and the pitching gets healthy the Stros can compete for a wildcard. Maybe they move Tucker to CF and try Jones in RF? Anyways they're an OF short. This is really not surprising. Castro not hitting isn't surprising. Injuries/illness happening isn't surprising. Dusty screwing around with the lineup isn't surprising. God, I long for the days when the Stros had competent management.
You get what you pay for. I'm hoping atleast the bullpen will be better when Framber makes it back and allows Javier to go to the bullpen with a healthy Baez,Javier,Pressly the back end of the bullpen should be solid. It would really help if Solomon could become a multi innings stud out of the bullpen too. Nothing is going to fix the CF/C positions unless McCormick proves to be an everyday stud.
For me it still comes back to the Baez and Castro deal screwing up the offseason. Both were overpays. Zunino, Avila, Ramos, Chirinos, and Suzuki signed for less than Castro. Here are some relievers and their current stats that were signed for way less than Baez that could have allowed us to also add a veterean CFer or maybe 2 relievers. Yes, it is still early in the season but considering the dumpster fire we have in the bullpen currently..... Jake McGee 2 years 5 million in total guarantees 9 games, 8.1 IP, 2.16 ERA, .960 WHIP, 6 Saves, 183 ERA+, 2.14 FIP Ian Kennedy- minor league deal- 2.15 million for making the team 6 Games, 6 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 3 Saves, 148 ERA+, 1.60 FIP Mark Melancon- 1 year 2 million and then 1 million buyout on a 2022 team option 8 games, 9.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, .333 WHIP, 6 Saves, 382 ERA+, 1.54 FIP Yusmeiro Petit- 1 year 2.55 million with 450k in possible incentives 9 games, 8.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, .923 WHIP, 185 ERA+, 4.02 FIP Matt Andriese- 1 year 1.85 million with 250k buyout on 3 million team option for 2022 6 games, 9.2 IP, 1.448 WHIP, 236 ERA+, 2.17 FIP Keone Kela- 1 year 1.2 million with 2.3 million in possible incentives 8 games, 7.2 IP, 1.043 WHIP, 328 ERA+, 1.01 FIP Shane Greene is still a free agent.....
Baez should help significantly. I think Scrubb, even with his control issues, is another high upside arm out of the pen. Also, i liked the Castro signing at the time, but with the way he’s being used by Dusty we might as well have used that money elsewhere.
2 of those guys don't have hits yet including the one that was most cited as the guy who should have been signed instead of Castro. Only one of them, has batted (OPS+ or RC+) better than Castro. If those are the guys to judge Click's decision on Castro and we are already judging Click on Castro's performance, Click should get an A+ on Castro signing.
Ramos or Zuninio would have been my preference as backup to Maldonado. We will see at the end of the year what their stats look like. However, you are missing the big picture. The savings at catcher combined with savings on a reliever over the Baez signing get you a better option in CF whether that is Marisnick who is a better defender than straw or possibly someone like Michael Taylor. I would gladly take Michael Taylor in CF and Ramos as backup catcher right now over Castro and Straw.
