[WaPo] Opinion: Biden takes the easy way out of Afghanistan. The likely result is disaster.

"Opinion: Biden takes the easy way out of Afghanistan. The likely result is disaster":

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...1ca958-9c81-11eb-8005-bffc3a39f6d3_story.html

Opinion: Biden takes the easy way out of Afghanistan. The likely result is disaster.

Opinion by the Editorial Board
April 13, 2021 at 4:57 p.m. EDT

PRESIDENT BIDEN faced a painful dilemma in Afghanistan when he took office. Having committed the United States to removing all its troops from the country by May 1, then-President Donald Trump reduced the force to a bare minimum by January, even though Taliban insurgents had failed to fulfill their side of the withdrawal deal. Mr. Biden’s choice was to leave U.S. forces in place, risking renewed conflict with the Taliban, or go forward with the pullout — even though it could lead to the collapse of the Afghan army and government.

After a brief and seemingly halfhearted effort at diplomacy, Mr. Bidenhas decided on unconditional withdrawal, a step that may spare the United States further costs and lives but will almost certainly be a disaster for the country’s 39 million people — and, in particular, its women. It could lead to the reversal of the political, economic and social progress for which the United States fought for two decades, at a cost of more than 2,000 American lives and hundreds of billions of dollars. And, according to the U.S. intelligence community and a study commissioned by Congress, it could allow al-Qaeda to restore its base in Afghanistan, from which it launched the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

The bargain struck by the Trump administration with the Taliban required it to break all ties with al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. According to U.N. and U.S. military officials, it has not done so. Nor has it been willing to negotiate seriously with the Afghan government about a peaceful settlement. It rejected a Biden administration proposal for a conference in Turkey to jump-start those talks, and it ridiculed U.S. proposals for a power-sharing arrangement with the government, as well as for new elections. The group’s leaders project the conviction that they will easily rout the government militarily once the United States leaves, and restore a harsh “Islamic emirate” such as the one they fashioned in the 1990s.

U.S. officials offer various rationalizations for abandoning the elected government of Ashraf Ghani to what will be, at best, a bloody fight for survival. Mr. Ghani also has resisted U.S. peace proposals, and his rule has been feckless. A strategy of leaving troops in the country in an effort to force the Taliban to compromise could extend the U.S. commitment for years without achieving a durable peace. Perhaps, too, some officials say hopefully, the Taliban will moderate its denial of women’s rights and other repressive policies to preserve international aid, without which Afghanistan’s economy would implode.

If that assessment proves wrong, Mr. Biden’s decision to remove U.S. forces by the symbolic date of Sept. 11, 2021, may simply result in the restoration of the 2001 status quo, including terrorist bases that could force a renewed U.S. intervention. At a minimum, it will mean an abandonment of those Afghans who believed in building a democracy that guaranteed basic human rights — and the nullification of the sacrifices of the American servicemen who were killed or wounded in that mission. Mr. Biden has chosen the easy way out of Afghanistan, but the consequences are likely to be ugly.
​

 

Wall Street Journal editorial board:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens...6fuohnacjes&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Biden’s Afghan Exit
Withdrawing all U.S. troops risks the return of al Qaeda and ISIS.
By The Editorial Board
April 13, 2021 7:03 pm ET

The White House announced Tuesday that President Biden plans to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan by Sept. 11. The symbolic but arbitrary date shows the decision is driven less by facts on the ground than a political desire that is also a strategic gamble. History suggests U.S. interests will suffer.

The target date 20 years to the day after the 9/11 attacks is meant to underscore that at long last the Afghan war will end. But of course it won’t. The country will see its civil war escalate, as the Taliban seek to retake Kabul and reestablish the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. If the country again becomes a sanctuary for al Qaeda and Islamic State, don’t be surprised if U.S. troops have to return as they did in Iraq after Barack Obama’s 2011 withdrawal led to the rise of ISIS.

***
Mr. Biden inherited a bad situation as President Trump had negotiated a May 1 withdrawal date. As the U.S. drew down its forces, the Taliban failed to cut ties with al Qaeda and have captured military bases around the country.

Today some 10,000 foreign forces remain, including as many as 3,500 Americans. A U.S. departure means NATO and other partner troops will leave too. The U.S. says it will stay diplomatically engaged, but the withdrawal almost surely means the peace talks between the Taliban and Kabul will fail. The Taliban will feel no pressure to make concessions, and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has no reason to negotiate his own execution.

Whether the U.S.-backed government can survive is unknowable, though it’s unlikely to have much influence outside Kabul. The Afghan army and police may lose confidence without foreign backing, and the Northern Alliance will reform as protection against the Taliban.

John Sopko, the Pentagon’s special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, said last month that without U.S. support the government “probably would face collapse.” The intelligence community’s 2021 Threat Assessment, published Tuesday, suggests that “the Afghan Government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support.”

As the Taliban and militias around the country gain more influence amid a governing vacuum, millions will lose access to basic services and humanitarian relief. Hard-fought progress for women will vanish. Iran will become more influential in Herat, and Pakistan, which has supported the Taliban for years, will face a reckoning as Islamists are strengthened.

But the U.S. invaded in 2001 mainly to destroy al Qaeda safe havens and remove the group’s sponsors from power. If much of Afghanistan again becomes a security vacuum, al Qaeda and ISIS will have a freer hand to plot terrorist attacks against the U.S.

In January the U.S. Treasury said al Qaeda was “gaining strength in Afghanistan while continuing to operate with the Taliban under the Taliban’s protection.” It added that the group “capitalizes on its relationship with the Taliban through its network of mentors and advisers who are embedded with the Taliban, providing advice, guidance, and financial support.”

Mr. Biden’s advisers say that while the Taliban is a problem, the U.S. can still strike terrorists with standoff weapons and can better use limited resources to deter China and Russia. The U.S. will maintain some counterterrorism capabilities. But the rise of ISIS in Iraq showed the limits of what can be done without a physical presence. Congress should ask some hard questions of U.S. military leaders, who need to level with Americans about the security risks of withdrawal.

As for Beijing and Moscow, the message they receive may be the opposite of what Mr. Biden intends. They may see U.S. withdrawal as a sign that Mr. Biden is keen to retreat from America’s global commitments.

The tragedy is that there is a reasonable alternative to withdrawal. The bipartisan Afghanistan Study Group said this year that 4,500 American troops would be enough “for training, advising, and assisting Afghan defense forces; supporting allied forces; conducting counterterrorism operations; and securing our embassy.” That’s not a commitment that prevents the U.S. from dealing with other adversaries.

In the short term, many Americans will welcome Mr. Biden’s retreat as the end of a “forever war.” But the President’s exit means he will have to take responsibility for what happens next. We hope it doesn’t betray the great sacrifices so many have made.

Appeared in the April 14, 2021, print edition.
​

 

well this is certainly the cynical view

"BIDEN COMMEMORATES 9/11 ANNIVERSARY WITH SURRENDER TO TALIBAN":

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/04/biden-commemorates-9-11-anniversary-with-surrender-to-taliban.php

 

"Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal Puts Symbolism Before Strategy":

https://thebulwark.com/bidens-afghanistan-withdrawal/

excerpt:

In 2019, President Donald Trump similarly tried to reach a peace deal with the Taliban on the eighteenth anniversary of 9/11. On the twentieth anniversary of 9/11, President Biden will triumphally take credit for ending America’s longest war.

It’s naïve to expect foreign policy decisions to be independent of domestic political considerations, but it shouldn’t be too much to ask that the costs and benefits of the policy also factor.

Last year marked a record low for American casualties in Afghanistan: of the ten total fatalities in 2020, only four were in action. The number of troops is at its lowest ebb since 2001. The war’s financial cost has become a rounding error in the annual U.S. budget—most of the approximately $50 billion spent annually in Afghanistan (compared to the total Pentagon annual budget of more than $700 billion) goes to civilian development projects, not fighting. The “forever war” in Afghanistan is, at this point, little more than a counterterrorism operation.

Of course, $50 billion per year isn’t a small amount of money. But the return on investment is significant. For all the (valid) criticism of the Afghanistan War as a quagmire, it’s been good enough. The purpose of the war was to make sure that Afghanistan would cease being a safe haven for terrorists who would attack America, and it has succeeded to that extent. We failed to make Afghanistan into a shining example of democracy in South-Central Asia, and it seems exceedingly unlikely if the government and security forces will be able to stand on their own, but that doesn’t mean that the war was a total failure, either.

***
The situation on the ground indicates that a withdrawal will lead to catastrophe. It is also premature. The administration has been in office for less than three months. It has rightly devoted most of its attention to the pandemic. It is, thanks to the chaotic transition, understaffed. There are no under secretaries or assistant secretaries at the State Department. The deputy secretary assumed office on the day of the announcement. There are no under secretaries or assistant secretaries at the Department of Defense (with the exceptions of a few holdovers from the previous administration). There has been no Afghanistan strategy review. This is happening all in a haste for the sake of showmanship.

Trump made policy by tweet, including multiple surprise announcements of precipitous withdrawals of American troops from war zones. Biden has improved upon his predecessor in style, but not in substance.
​

more at the link