I wanted to track and see if our new tandem can keep up with the old. I want to do something simple, so I will only compare OPS in 2021 for the later and use 2020 for the former. 2020 Springer/Reddick .899/.693 2021 Tucker/Straw .200/.000 Sure, after just one game, this is meaningless. But over time, it will gain meaning. I will update every so often. Discussion comparing the tandems in other ways is welcome. (Btw, lets not nitpick my method to death here. Just having some fun)
Will be interesting to see the comparison. Obvs when you factor in salary Tucker/Straw look a lot more appealing. I do not expect Tucker to be as good as Springer, but I do expect him to be a good player (2.5-3.5 fWAR). I expect Straw will be as valuable this season as Reddick was last season, as Straw’s defensive value will keep his floor fairly high; he just needs to get on base enough to justify a big league roster spot (even a paltry ~70 wRC+ probably means he ends up more valuable than Reddick).
I voted Springer/Reddick. Springer is a legit all-star and bona fide star. You can theoretically pencil him in for 25 to 35 HR for the season. An .899 OPS is all star level numbers. Tucker hopefully can get that type of production, and our hopes are high. But we are optimistic fans. Last year his OPS was in the .830’s which is very good for a young player. Which was Springer’s levels when he was a young player too. Straw has been a minor league career .775 OPS. He accumulated an OPS of .631 in the MLB career in 208 AB. Reddick put up a .693 OPS last season, well bellow his career average of .750, but he’s been on a downward path in his career. But I anticipate that Straw will be within the .699 and .630 range. If he goes sub .600, he will play a lot less as the season progresses. i think most Astros fan would be very pleased for 2021 with a Tucker in the .830 OPS and a Straw with an OPS in the .675 ranges. That would show for Tucker sustainable production, and production. And for Straw a viable growth into a defensive specialist who can keep his oppressive production just viable to keep himself on the field to dazzle us who’s his defensive prowess.
I would say Springer /Reddick, pretty confidently. Straw could have a monster season and his OPS would only be in the mid .700's, it isn't really a great stat to measure his effectiveness. OBP is the sole stat that matters for him offensively (and OPS as a flat number is weighted towards SLG%). If Straws OPS is greater than Reddicks, he's likely had a solid season. Springer posted an .899 OPS last season, I don't expect Tucker to be that good. Even if he has a good year, I don't expect Straws OPS to be too much higher than Reddicks, I think they'll likely be pretty close. Defensively, I think they'll be a little better this year. George was never an elite CF, probably above average, but not at all unreasonable to think Straw will be better. Despite taking some wonky routes, there's not any real evidence that Tucker isn't at least average defensively, and Reddick was bad last season. I don't know if he simply lost a step, or the covid weirdness played into it, but the eyeball test and metrics were in agreement that he struggled, despite being rock solid his entire career.
I'm guessing Tucker and Straw. I think odds are good Straw is either better than Reddick last season hitting or bad enough that he doesn't get the ABs to dilute Tucker's OPS later in the season.
Other than being really fast, Straw seems to be an average outfielder. While catching the triple would have been a good play, he was totally on the wrong side of the ball. His speed will make up for some mistakes, and hopefully with playing time and ML experience, he'll get better.
Ive always felt that reading the ball off the bat and getting a good break/taking a clean route is instinctual and not really a learned skill. Depending on the speed and trajectory of the hit I t happens in a fraction of a second.
It's been interesting to learn that athleticism /= good outfielder. Kevin Goldstein (formerly of the Astros FO) mentioned in a recent Fangraphs podcast that Derek Fisher (formerly of the Astros system) is a 90th percentile athlete but can barely handle left field.
At this moment in time I agree with this. But I think both T & S have some unutilized ceiling (they may get better).
Springer and Reddick both had about the same amount of ABs. If Straw hits like Reddick last year, I think Tucker will have a lot more ABs than Straw whenever Astros get another CF. On Tucker, can the on deck hitter carry a cattle prod and give Tucker a jolt any time he swings at a pitch out of the zone or up in the zone with less than 2 strikes? Tucker is making too much contact on tough pitches early in the count and not giving the pitcher a chance to make a mistake down in the zone.
Here in the early going Straw has a .360 OBP. 5 walks to only 3 K's. Only hitting .200, but with a really low BABIP. Again, really, really early but he's looking closer to his 2019 than he is 2020. Still think it's stupid to not have him hitting 9th where him getting on has a better chance of coming home, and likely less people on in front of him to create force out opportunities.
