I believe you're right. It would be terrible to see Bradley Beal instead of one of the top 4 players, if they fall to us.
What are the chances of ending up with the 2nd or the 3rd pick if we end up in the bottom 3 rankings? @Nook
The 2 best shooters in the draft will be on display today in the tournament. I need the Rockets to be scouting. Surround KPJ with real shooters. Corey Kispert (Gonzaga) vs Creighton Chris Duarte (Oregon) vs USC
Okay thanks. Can you clarify for me the 52 percent odds of acquiring a top 4 pick ahead of OKC? I know if OKC acquires a top 4 pick, we will end up with the much lower Miami pick. Please correct me if I'm mistaken.
If we get a top 4 pick(which is a 52% chance if we finish in the bottom 4) then we keep our pick. If it is outside of the top 4 picks then OKC gets the 2 best picks out of ours, OKCs and heat.
Thanks for the clarification. OKC has really got us by the balls unfortunately. I know it was TF's decision, but I thought that Morey would have been able to prevail upon him to get a better deal than that from OKC's. Stern showed the league's undisputed power when he overruled the CP3 trade from NOLA in the interest of the team. It's so unfair to see this, and blatant changes in the draft to help LAL acquire the 4th pick to facilitate Davis's move so Lebron could get another championship ring.
The easiest way to think about it is that we only keep the pick if it is a top 4 pick. The chances of us getting #1 is about the same as getting #2... 1-4 each have about a 13% chance for a total of 52%.... the other 48% is for picks 5-7 and that is equal to the 48%.... So if you say: “What is the odds of the Rockets getting one of the first two picks, it is roughly 13% plus 13% or 26%.... so it would be roughly 39% for top 3 and 52% for top 4.
I have a hard time figuring out where I’d place Suggs. Gonzaga is a really good team, and he’s certainly a part of it. He just doesn’t jump out as the “no brained best player on the floor” type when I’ve watched him. Their balance is part of it, and he buys in. He seems like he has a very high floor, but I’m not sure if he’s Ayayi is an interesting player. High defensive ceiling, decent slasher, and if his spot up 3 point shooting is legit, he could be a valuable piece. He could be worth one of our later picks.
If you're one of those people who's only impression of a prospect comes from their tournament performance, you're probably wondering why Suggs has been considered a top 2 pick. He's definitely been underwhelming. But again, this is why you don't use tournament performance as the lone benchmark to scout a player.
it’s what I tried to tell Suggs fans who acted like Cade’s 2 games in the tournament meant everything...meanwhile, they’re conveniently silent and don’t have that same energy for Suggs’ tournament play yet another masterful performance from Suggs, a “real winner” unlike Cade, with 9 points, 6 assists, and 6 turnovers
Nice win by Gonzaga. Thru 3 wins in the tournament, Kispert now shooting 58% (18-31) from the field and 60% (12-20) from three. Will check on Duarte tonight.
I’ve said this before. There’s a very low ceiling on short guards. Unless you have generational shooting ability (Steph, Dame, Nash) or have freakish amount of athleticism (Westbrook, Ja Morant, Derrick Rose), there’s a big chance that short point guard you draft will not become a franchise player. Suggs doesn’t have generational shooting, and his athleticism is good, not elite. I get Johnny Flynn vibes.
The guy I've mentioned as a Cade comparison, Penny Hardaway, did not have a very impressive tourney performance in either of his trips.
I wish we could package Wood, Tate, Brooklyn picks, EG, Bradley, etc for another top pick this year. Having two of these guys w KPJ/KJ would be pretty fun to watch. Right now Minnesota is projected to get Cade, having Cade, AE, Towns, that team should be back in the playoffs sooner than Houston.
Wood will never be able to play a full season. I would take a guy that is 90% as good if he is playing 100% of the time. Wood puts Houston in a spot where they don't make the playoffs but don't get a top pick next year. I would rather go young with higher upside, get a couple of top draft picks this year, and one the next and have KPJ/KJ.
By this logic, Orlando shouldn’t have traded their all-star center Nikola Vucevic — who’s in his prime — because who they draft during their rebuild, at best, will end up as good as Vucevic anyway.
