First let me preface this by saying that the Rockets deserve some level of criticism concerning their spending habits when they had an elite team, as well as hindering what the GM could do. The Rockets lost their GM, HC and best player because of mistakes made organizationally. However that topic has all been covered and at this point is water under the bridge. Either the team learns from their mistakes or they do not. Also, I am not saying that everything thing the Rockets have done this season has been ideal or even good (Oladipo) but on the whole, the Rockets do not deserve the level of panic and hatred that I am seeing in the media and with the fans... at least not yet. First lets look at what the Rockets have added to their roster that is worthwhile since free agency. Long Term Additions Christian Wood. He is 25, and there are some concerns about his general health. However he has played as well as anyone could have hoped for. Effort isn't an issue for the most part, he has avoided trouble and actually has been a verbal leader a few times and doesn't struggle offensively against the better players in the league. He doesn't score quite as much as he is capable of but that is largely due to poor guard play. While I wish they would have signed him to a 4-5 year deal, his contract is long enough for him to still be a Rocket by the time the Rockets are starting to try and win. His defense has improved greatly and he is equally capable of playing the 4 or 5. He isn't a franchise player but he is a borderline all star with upside. This is a major piece or the Rockets. He isn't a franchise player but he is one of the 3 foundation pieces that I believe successful franchises need. Kevin Porter Jr. He is only 21 years old and his talent and upside is undeniable. He comes with huge risk based on his past. He also has some degree of injury concerns. He needs to go to the line more and drive more, but it is clear that with regular development that he can be a starter for a very good team if he stays out of trouble. I believe that every elite team needs a perimeter scorer/creator that can at times be the best player on the court. While Porter isn't that now, he at least has that potential and that is EXTREMELY valuable as there are only about a dozen of these types of players in the entire league and only a few as young as Porter. I put his chance of "exploding" and becoming an all star about the same as a top 5 pick in a normal draft. So, he isn't certain but he has a chance to be a foundational piece or a starter for an elite team. The Rockets have also added two potential role players in Martin Jr. and Tate. These players both have some limitations (Martin shooting and Tate size) but they cost the Rockets in essence just a second rounder. That is pretty good value for a rebuilding team. Outcome: If I told you that in one rebuilding season that the Rockets would add two likely foundational pieces and a couple of long term role players, most fans and even NBA people would say that is an excellent year for development. Now consider that the Rockets did that without using a first round pick. Short Term Future Changes The Rockets are in dire need of the most valuable asset in the NBA, a true franchise player. Someone that when they step on the court is the best player over half the time. There are two main ways to get one. The First is to sign one as a free agent. That isn't something likely for the Rockets as they are not LA or NY (if they win). The second and more realistic way is through the draft, and usually that means the top of the draft. With that in mind the Rockets 2021 draft pick outcome is incredibly important. This draft has 5 guys that stand out from the rest of the draft class and there are two that appear to have a reasonably likelihood of being multiple time all stars. The Rockets have a 52% chance of keeping their draft pick right now, and a 25% chance of getting the number one or number two pick. That is huge for the Rockets. The Rockets need to keep losing, and need to keep Orlando from passing them in the lottery standings. Having said that, the Rockets organization deserves credit for actually being willing to be THIS bad and gamble on getting a high lottery pick. Had the Rockets made the deal with Philadelphia, they would not have such good odds of adding a top of the lottery pick and while Simmons is a foundational piece, he isn't a franchise player which is what the Rockets really need to compete for a title. Right now it is fun to laugh at how bad the Rockets are, but it is important to look long term. Long Term Future Changes Long term the Rockets are in a relatively good place with the cap. Next year they have about 93 million in commitments and the year after that it is 96 million. Over half of that is from the disgusting John Wall contact. However, when Wood and Porter and Tate are due for free agency, the Rockets have almost no money spent, if they decline the option for Gordon (they will) and they have like 3 million in obligations. That number will go up with draft picks over the next few years, but not enough to prevent the Rockets having a lot of flexibility if Tilman is willing to spend. Conclusion For as disappointing as this season has been, the reality is that the Rockets are in a fairly good situation overall for the beginnings of a rebuild. They have what appear to be two long term starters and haven't used any of their equity from the Harden trade to get to that point. The team has a better than 50% chance of adding a very high end young player through the draft as well.
The sky is always darkest before the dawn. or if you're a trader... buy everyone else's fear. lol. I'm excited. The only thing worse than going from a ring contender to one of the worst teams in the league, is doing that slowly. They accomplished this in like 5 months folks. That's an accomplishment!
Agreed. They deserve every ounce of **** they’re catching for yesterday, but overall Stone has done reasonably well under the circumstances.
I will try to be nice on this. But basically you are putting your hope of that "50% chance" on a guy whom just traded away the only asset this team had to help the other team dumping their garbage on us and got laughed at on national TV less than 20 hours ago?
We literally traded the second worst contract for the worst contract league. Let's hope we can use it 2 years from now to get someone good, however I doubt Tilman will spend to get someone good.
I'll be honest. None of this made me feel better about the Rockets situation right now. I'll feel better if we manage to stay bottom 4 AND keep our draft pick. At least I can feel like some of this was worth it. If we lose our draft pick on the coin flip odds that we have to keep it, I predict this board will explode. We're already at DEFCON level 3. That will probably be the final straw and the pin being pulled out of the grenade on one of the worst stretches ever if not the absolute worst stretch in Houston sports history.
After 20-straight losses and player personnel mistake after mistake, the only ones left here are diehards. If you're not a total diehard fan, you probably don't care about this team. And for us diehards, the motivation left to support this team is dying.
A very good post. The biggest concern that I have is not knowing what are the goals of the ownership, management and the coaching staff for the next 2-3 years. There is a lot of uncertainty, partly because of the non use of the LT. I'm not saying that it should be used on overrated players, but if there is a cap on going beyond a certain limit, then the Rockets may not be able to acquire quality free agents in the future. I'm aware that we need a top 4 pick in this upcoming draft more than anything else.
Yeah, I will take a 50% chance over a 20-25% chance had the Rockets won a handful of meaningless games. The Rockets right this minute have a 25% chance of having either Cunningham or Mobley on their roster next year, that sounds pretty damn good to me. As for Oladipo, it was a mistake to trade for him but on the whole the Rockets are in a better position than most teams would be at this point.
I agree with you that the Rockets need to stay bottom 4, but the Rockets cannot change the fact that the Thunder get their pick if it is outside of the top 4. All the Rockets can do is maximize their ability to keep that pick and so far they have done that. Absolutely the Rockets could lose their pick, there is a 50% chance of that.... but odds are all you can work with. Even if the Rockets lose their pick, they still have two players (25 and 21) that are talented enough to be long term contributors and that is good for so early in the rebuild.
If we were starting from scratch then sure, the progress made thus far would be pretty good. But we started by trading a hall of famer (and Wood already in tow) and that alone should have Jumpstarted the rebuild much further along than it is now. KPJ was a good get but that was more luck than anything. Basically where we are isn't THAT bad but the process that got us here doesn't inspire confidence in the moves to be made in the future.
From the biggest Tilman hater himself! So you’re optimistic about the future of Tilman (& Patrick) Fertitta’s Houston Rockets? Nah, they deserve it all. Rockets are a poverty franchise with a shithole owner and crying coach. For all the “We don’t want LeVert(26) or Allen(22) or even Simmons(24) because we don’t want to be 42-40 mediocre!”, sure are quick to crown Wood & Porter as “foundational” franchise players. Why are they in this situation anyways? Why did the GM leave, HC leave, two star players leave? Oh right, the shithole owner. Never paid it once but scared of the luxury tax, scared of the repeater tax! Scary! AVOID AT ALL COSTS! Chris “the worst contract I’ve ever seen in sports or business” Paul for two, worse contracts LOL. Know who expires after next year(2021-22)? The worst contract he’s ever seen in sports or business.
10/10 post My only concern and one of the major reasons why I'm not as optimistic as i hoped i would be, is that I'm not sure whether we are actually trying to rebuild or just try hard to compete next year to fill seats. I'm not confident that Tilman has enough patience to let this team go through a real rebuild without fking it up midway through.
As a Rocket fan since ‘72 I’ve seen all the ups and downs. Almost 40 years of watching the ebb and flow. I enjoy the good years, I don’t let the bad years get me frustrated. Change is always around the corner. Some of the most enjoyable times is when a young team starts to come together and you can see the window opening. It’s been a very long time since the Rockets had a real rebuild. Things will work out.
As far as concerns about direction with ownership, I am concerned as well. Just keep in mind that this isn't baseball where they can say they are starting over. When the Sixers GM did that the league office pushed him out of the league. As far as the salary cap, we have some space the next two seasons but of more importance is that the Rockets will have huge amounts of space when Wood and Porter are going to be free agents, enough cap room to sign players as well. That also allows the Rockets to consider dealing someone like Gordon and go after a max free agent at some point over the next couple years assuming there is someone that meets the Rockets needs and will sign for a rebuild.
Fans are in their feelings right now. The Harden era failed to land even a finals appearance as did the McGrady/Yao era. Both eras are now in the past. A lot of folks are stuck playing the blame game instead of focusing on what will be in the next era. Which is understandable given the year we’ve had.
“The Rockets have also added two potential role players in Martin Jr. and Tate. These players both have some limitations (Martin shooting and Tate size) but they cost the Rockets in essence just a second rounder. That is pretty good value for a rebuilding team.”
