Payroll was $75 mil for 2022 before the LMJ extension don’t think this pushes them over $100 million.
I think Lindor gets $300 million if not for the fact Mets are against the wall too pay him. $150 mil for Correa is what I think
Think Lance’s deal may have been a bit high, and Carlos’s offer a bit low. Consensus here was around $25m/season is the market, and the Astros offer was about $5m/ season lower.
I think you need to take the blinders off... if Lindor gets 300 million, Correa will get close to that. https://stathead.com/tiny/USsF4
Borrow Caserio from Fannin to get the Correa deal done. He will sign him to a 2 year deal, heavy on incentives
Many of the hitting stats show definite similarities between the 2 players, with a slight advantage to Correa in my opinion. Defensively, even though Correa has gotten better as his career has progressed, Lindor is a much better defensive SS. However, the thing that stuck out the most for me is that in those 6 years, Lindor has almost 1.75 years more worth of Plate Appearances. Teams will take this into account, and the reason I expect Lindor to receive significantly more.
I know this is a joke. But please. The Astros are the only team in Houston worth a damn right now. Don’t want anyone drone rockets or Texans being involved.
It's not just about what Carlos has done and what he might do in the future. It is also about value for the Astros. They have a TON of options to fill SS in 2022. They could move Bregman to SS and sign a 3B. Maybe they think Pena at minium salary is a much better value than giving a guy with health concerns hundreds of millions of dollars. Then go and compare Correa the last 3 seasons to other players that could be on the market and fill either SS or 3B. 2018-2020 combined stats Correa Games 243, HR 41, RBI 149, BA .257, OBP .335, OPS .782, OPS+ 110 Lindor Games 361, HR 78, RBI 193, BA .277, OBP .343, OPS .845, OPS+ 122 Story Games 361, HR 83, RBI 221, BA .292, OBP .355, OPS .909, OPS+ 122 Baez Games 357, HR 71, RBI 220, BA .272, OBP .308, OPS. 821, OPS+ 121 Corey Seagar Games 212, HR 36, RBI 141, BA. 281, OBP .342, OPS .841, OPS+ 122 Marcus Semien Games 374, HR 55, RBI 185, BA .263, OBP .339, OPS .784, OPS+ 114 Chris Taylor Games 335, HR 37, RBI 147, BA 259, OBP .338, OPS .793, OPS+ 112 Maybe they sign a 3rd baseman and slide Bregman to SS..... Kris Bryant Games 283, HR 48, RBI 140, BA .269, OBP .368, OPS .846, OPS+ 121 Eduardo Escobar Games 363, HR 62, RBI 222, BA .262, OBP .319, OPS .796, OPS+ 107 So why should the Astros pay hundreds of millions when they could get nearly the same offensive production for maybe 25% of the cost with someone like Chris Taylor or Eduardo Escobar? Like I've said before, I want Correa back but at a fair price. His production does not justify the money that Lindor or Story might get. I'm happy to see the Astros haven't gone insane and offered him a quarter billion dollars or something nuts. He just has never been that guy and you can't pay that for hopium that he will finally be able to put it together because he had a nice 13 game run in the playoffs.
Disagree. Lindor was A top MVP candidate for the three full seasons before the 2020 Covid season. Mets gave up the farm too get him and they are going to have to overspend too keep him. Correa has only had one season where he’s played more than 110 games and it was in 2016. Sure his best years are ahead but based on his history he’d be lucky getting $25 million AAV with 6 yrs/$150 million. He’s not getting that kind of an offer from anyone else in free agency. Contending teams are set well at shortstop. Dodgers, Cubs & Mets want to resign the ones they have, Yankees have Torres, Red Sox have Bogearts, Blue Jays have Bichette, Padres have Tatis, Nats have Turner, etc
You could have make your point about OPS over a 2.5 season sample without making such obvious attempts to diminish Correa’s production. You pick a sample intentionally leaving out his best season in 2017. And you claim that “he had a nice 13 game run in the playoffs” without acknowledging he’s been doing that throughout our deep playoff runs that started in 2015. He’s one of the best postseason hitters all time in terms of rbi and home runs, and he’s 26. Plays great defense. And was an absolute leader last year when things got tight in the postseason. GTFOH with comparisons that make it look like he’s worse that Marcus Semien.
The only reason I even went back 3 seasons instead of 2 is because 2020 was a shortened season. Going back 4 seasons to determine value.... I guess we should have paid Souza 20 million.
I’m highly doubtful that Crane takes as passive a role as you’re suggesting in these negotiations. While he may seem like weekend at bernies to some here, I think he’s actually more engaged/involved than a lot give him credit for. We know he’s calculating and can separate emotions from business.
Contending teams pop up every year. A few years ago, when the Padres signed all their big names, they weren't a contending team or a big market. Assuming he's not injured again this year, Correa will have no shortage of teams interested in making him a cornerstone piece of their up-and-coming team the same way the Padres did with Machado.
If he can separate emotions from business, he won't be too involved in the actual detailed negotiation other than giving Click an upper limit not to exceed and the final yes/no. I think he's a little more involved than that, but I really hope he let's Click spend his money wisely. Owners getting too involved leads to things like Chris Davis in Baltimore and Pujols in LA. This isn't like those deals.
How I look at McCullers’ deal: If he averages >3 war per season (15 total over the contract), it’s a great deal for Houston. If he averages <1.5 war per season (7.5 total), it’s a bad deal for Houston. I think he’ll probably come in somewhere in between. But his upside is just as high as his downside which is rare for a free agent pitcher.
I like this reasoning. And when you really step back and look at the Astros 6yr/120mil extension offer, it is actually quite competitive. The five highest paid SS for this season is: Lindor - $22.3 mil Bogaerts $20 mil Story - $18.5 mil Simien - $18 mil Crawford - $15.2 mil $20 mil per year for Correa is quite fair. I don't think he should expect to be offered exceedingly more than what what the current value is for a SS. Being the second highest paid SS in baseball aint an insult. Bottom line, I think the Astros are playing this very reasonably.
