Love locking in Lance for a fair deal. But is anyone else worried this means no Carlos? I know they aren’t necessarily related, but this just feels like the splash move to offset likely fan disappointment in not getting Correa’s deal done.
I never expected Correa to sign an extension. The Astros have the money though. They still have 78 million coming off the books in Verlander, Greinke, Correa, Raley, Smith, and Maldonado. Then it could be an additional 15 million coming of the books depending on if Pressly vests his 10 million dollar option and if the Astros pick up Yuli's team option. Also, they have limited raises to be concerned about next year in arbitration with only Framber, James, Pruitt, Diaz, and Stanek being the only eligible guys for next offseason.
Me too. I know he's saying the right things, but I was never all that optimistic that an extension would get done this offseason. I am still quite optimistic that he re-signs here next offseason.
Carlos can drastically increase his worth with an MVP level season. I would think Carlos bets on himself and doesn't sign an extension unless the Astros offer close to what he thinks he's get with such a 2021 season.
Updated Astros 5 year total WAR and payroll (excluding benefits) projections: 2021: $186M, 41 fWAR 2022: $130M, 41 fWAR 2023: $140M, 43 fWAR 2024: $150M, 43 fWAR 2025: $120M, 39 fWAR Houston should be a solid playoff contender thru that span. They also should still have plenty of room to sign Correa.
Absolutely not. The Astros still have plenty of money to sign Correa. Even if Ryan Pressly’s 2022 option vests, the Astros have about $100 million committed in payroll for that season ($110 million if they pick up Yuli’s option) Altuve: $29 million McCullers: $17 million, but could be less depending on contract structure Brantley: $16 million Bregman: $12.7 million Pressly: $10 million Odorizzi: $8 million Yuli: either $8M or the club can decline his option for $500K Baez: $5.5 million Castro: $4 million (assuming 60 games caught). Also, besides Framber Valdez, the rest of the roster is either pre-arbitration eligible or guys the Astros can non-tender (like Diaz).
If the Astros do extend Correa the concern for going over the luxury tax this season really goes away for the most part. 1. With Correa and McCullers signed the only even remotely likely guy the Astros would attach a qualifying offer to is Verlander. Not sure the Astros give him one anyway since he will be innings limited in 2022 after TJ plus the rotation looks pretty set right now barring injuries. So only getting a pick after the 4th round like we did with Springer isn't the end of the world compared to 2 or 3 picks if Verlander, Correa, and McCullers all warranted qualifying offers. 2. With McCullers, Odorizzi, Framber, Urquidy, and Javier all locked up for 2022 and Correa extended at SS the need to shop in the pool of players that will have a qualifying offer attached and cost draft pick compensation plus international signing money would pretty much disappear next offseason. Most likely the Astros would be shopping for bullpen arms, a catcher, maybe a CF, and possibly a 1B depending on if they pick up Yuli's option.
Somewhere between 6 years, $150 million (what Springer got from the Blue Jays) and 8 years, $200 million is probably what it would take.
It seems like a reality dick punch for Correa considering the amount of time he has missed and his inconsistent hitting when he is on the field.
I know they CAN afford him. But I continue to think this is a signal that they aren’t committing now. The recent leak of their offer only reinforces that belief (“we gave it a serious effort and signed one of the two”)
You very well could be right. Considering the free-agent shortstop class and the fact most big market teams have good to great options at both shortstop and third base, the Astros have a lot of leverage. That said, I cannot envision the Astros letting Springer and Correa walk in back to back off seasons. Either they sign Correa, or they sign one of the other elite players available next winter (Baez, Bryant, Seager, Story, Rizzo or Freeman).
Thus far, in his short tenure of offering big contracts, Jim Crane is basically batting 1.000. If he wants the Astros to retain Carlos, I think he will get it done. he’s also been involved in all of the other big money deals (Altuve, Verlander, Bregman, Brantley, LMJ), so I don’t see this being any different and I don’t think it will be all on Click.
Part of me hopes they’re not done negotiating and that Carlos signs...but when the terms are leaked (especially after LMJs terms finalized), it just feels like negotiations are done and Click’s drawn his extension line in the sand.
Again, we'll see if Crane personally wants to get involved or not. For some reason that gets leaked every time a deal is on the 2 yard line ("Jim Crane now at the table"). Maybe he was there for this one... maybe not. Click is spending Crane's money... and Crane will seal the deal personally if he feels a certain player is worth it.
Crane has to be at the table or MLB won't approve it. Click 's role is to help him spend wisely and to make Crane the hero (it is Crane's money so he should be the hero). If Astros can get Correa for anything close to 6/120, that would be fantastic.
