What are everybody's expectation on money and length of deal? My guess would something close to 150 million over 7-8 years. After hearing Strom rave about him, the development of a new pitch second to Mike Scott, predict a top 10 Cy Young year, now this... I think it fits the bill to pay and lock in McCullers for the start of his prime. He's 27 now, could still get hefty money in one year deals after.
It might be nice to get done, but I don't think we can say it fills a huge hole for beyond 2021 - because it's 50/50 that he'll be healthy in any given season, and you never know what part of the season. So for planning purposes, the Astros can't really pencil him anywhere reliably. He's almost like a bonus player when he's available.
Paying him more than Springer got paid seems absurd to me for someone who's almost certainly going be injured for a chunk of his contract and may miss full seasons here and there. If the Astros can afford $150MM for 7-8 years for McCullers, I wish they'd have at least matched Toronto's Springer offer - no idea if he'd have accepted it or if he just wanted out of Houston, though.
If its anywhere close to those numbers count me out, way out. He's worth maybe 10-12 million tops from everything we've seen. If there's an extension, my money is on it being a short one with McCullers trying to prove himself to earn a potentially big deal. Maybe 3 years 30 million ballpark with some escalators. McCullers has the potential to grossly overperform that salary, but he needs to show it.
Assuming LMJ is valued as an average 2-win player for 2022, 2023, and 2024, he would be worth about $45M combined using the estimated $/WAR numbers calculated in https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-did-teams-pay-per-win-in-free-agency/. I would guess $35M to $40M if he signs a 3-year deal to give the Astros some risk protection. $30M would be a great deal. $45M would likely be okay, but no real benefit for Astros to do an extension over waiting. Edit: This is based on the 2-WAR assumption per year. Numbers should scale up or down mostly linearly if you think this assumption is too low or too high. More years would likely lead to aging/risk being taken into account for WAR estimate.
Scott Boras is his agent. I expect it to be bigger than people want it to be. Yes, that means it will be a significant risk. These are career numbers: Lance McCullers 3.70 ERA, 110 ERA+, 3.29 FIP, 1.262 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 Zach Wheeler 3.70 ERA, 104 ERA+, 3.67 FIP, 1.284 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 The major difference between them is Wheeler has 3 seasons with 180 plus innings. Wheeler received 5 years 118 million. I expect McCullers to come in between 60-80 million in guarantees with some incentives for innings pitched, cy young finishes, etc, etc that could push him near 100 million. It might also have opt outs.
That contract came down to age and price. He's 31 years old with many more games on his body due to postseason play, call it the Klay Thompson factor. Springer just had a Grade 2 oblique injury as well. Can't recall him ever having that injury. WIsh him luck... I think you're going to be disappointed when the contract comes out, sure we want him on a reasonable deal as fans but I think Crane knows teams like the Angels are going to PAY him this offseason. I'm all for getting him locked in. Crane getting involved has to mean one thing, long-term extension. Sure, I'd love him to first show it for 180+ innings a year before giving him a big extension but this is what it takes to lock in one of the best pitchers on the FA market next year. I know he will get injured at some point, but we need him when it matters most... the postseason.
Sure would have been nice if he was healthy in the 2019 postseason. We could have limited the number of innings Will Harris had to pitch that postseason, and eliminated Devinski and James entirely.
Those playoff games have wear and tear on players. I don't think many people look at that. Springer played in 63 postseason games as an Astro and most of the pitchers we had for those runs with are gone or have been hurt.
Astros fans are gonna have to relearn that the postseason is not a guarantee in this sport. This isn't the NBA.
It is the AL West though. The AL West's future does not look very good. Edit: This is part joke. Part not. Angels, Rangers, and A's after 2022 do no look good. I'm not sure Seattle will have enough prospects and money to get to be great.
It's not a guarantee but why not lock in the player you drafted, won a WS with and if healthy... should have his best season yet before hitting FA. Why not secure your guy? He could very well be the reason this team stays atop the division and if we lose him... no guarantee we sign a pitcher to replace him, which almost certainly brings the division back in play for the AL West.
I understand LMJ is injury prone.... but at this point, what pitcher really isn't? None of these guys are really worth more than 3 year deals, ever... including some of the GOAT pitchers. If you're doing it simply based on money/games missed, nobody is going to top Verlander for these last two years (pro-rated), and he was as durable as they came. Its always a gamble when signing pitchers... always.
Anything <$15M/yr thru his age 32 season is probably not gonna carry too much risk. Anything <$10M/yr would be a great deal for Houston regardless of length.
Everything you stated would be the case if the Astros paid McCullers $60MM/yr for 10 years too. It has nothing to do with anything - the question is what is he worth? No one is paying him $150MM. The Astros' drafting him has no actual monetary value going forward. Winning a WS in 2017 has no actual monetary value going forward. "if healthy" is a huge if. "should have his best season yet" - no particular reason to think that, especially given that last season was average so it's not like he's on some kind of uptrend. Last postseason was also not very good.
5 years, 85 million! Love it! Makes sense for him to want to test FA while still in his prime. 8 years, would've been 136 million.
