Here’s my opening day roster: 2B Altuve LF Brantley 3B Bregman DH Alvarez SS Correa RF Tucker 1B Gurriel C Maldonado CF Straw Bench: Castro, Diaz, McCormick Rotation: Greinke McCullers Urquidy Odorizzi/Bielak Javier/Garcia Bullpen: Pressly, Baez, Cishek, Smith, Stanek, Raley, Paredes After April assuming everybody stays healthy and Odorizzi and Javier are stretched out, Bielak and Luis Garcia would be sent down and replaced with Robel Garcia and Blake Taylor (or possibly Andre Scrubb).
Even if the Astros keep Cishek, I don’t see Blake Taylor starting the year in the minors. He was outstanding last year, and he’s the best left-handed reliever they have. I think Baez starts the year on the IL to give him more time to ramp up after being sidelined with COVID or the Astros trade Brooks Raley and his 2M salary and give his spot to Cishek.
Yea, I'm not sure how the opening day roster is going to shake out. I think McCormick probably gets a spot just because he is on the 40 man. The rotation is a mess with all the guys that missed with Covid, Odorizzi coming in late, and the Framber injury. No idea if they will run tandems like you suggested or maybe use Stanek as an opener a couple times a week to start the season. I would like to have Cishek on the roster because we will need so many arms this year and he has closer experience. In 2019 the Astros pitched 1462 innings in the regular season. That's a lot of innings to divide up amongst our young guys even if Greinke and Odo get you nearly 400 innings combined. McCullers and Urquidy breaking 150 innings would be huge. I'm also intrigued with the pending 40 man roster moves. I suspect Framber will go to the 60 day IL when Baez comes off the Covid list. Cishek would require another 40 man move. Then in a few weeks into the season another 40 man roster move would be required for Kent Emanuel once his suspension is completed. Same goes for Martes but that would be well into the season.
I’d be very surprised if they traded Raley. But I agree the IL will probably make it so Taylor makes the opening day roster. But assuming nobody is injured, Taylor, Paredes, and Stanek are the only relievers with options remaining, so one of them would have to get sent down until they don’t need additional starters. Another possibility is if Bielak (or Garcia) are fully stretched out by opening day, they could start that guy 4th and just tandem Odorizzi and Javier until they’re stretched out, and keep 12 position players. That would give them 8 RP, meaning Taylor makes the roster. Garcia/Toro would be optioned until they sent Bielak/Garcia down.
I think they'll do some gymnastics with Bielak, Garcia, Toro, other Garcia, Baez, and maybe manipulate some Javier service time before sending down Taylor. If the money is there, I do agree that Cishek is on the team.
If the Astros want Cishek on the Opening Day roster while maintaining their flexibility at the trade deadline by remaining below the luxury tax threshold, either Diaz (3M) or Raley (2M) are the most logical choices to be traded. Otherwise, the team will be only $1 million or so away from it. Someone with better knowledge of the rules can answer this, but if the Astros were to extend a high-salary player like Verlander or Greinke at a much cheaper rate than their 2021 salary, would that reduce their luxury tax total for 2021 or does that only take effect on 2022’s number?
Yes, an extension could replace an existing deal and lower the AAV for luxury tax purposes. I speculated that extending Verlander would make sense for that reason.
Thanks for the clarification. Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems the Astros would need to lower someone’s AAV (Greinke or Verlander) if they were to reach a contract extension with Carlos Correa before the start of the season, since the AAV in his new contract would be rising significantly.
I am not 100% on this but I think the deal can be structured either way, so a Correa extension could be structured to just begin after his current deal expires.
You only have 24 of the 26 man roster. Here’s mine.. 1. Altuve 2. Brantley 3. Bregman 4. Alvarez 5. Correa 6. Tucker 7. Gurriel 8. Maldonado 9. Straw 10. Castro 11. Diaz 12. R. Garcia/Toro 13. McCormick 14. Grienke 15. McCullers 16. Javier 17. Urquidy 18. Abreu/L. Garcia till Odorizzi is ready 19. Pressly 20. Smith 21. Paredes 22. Taylor 23. Stanek 24. Raley 25. Cishek 26. Abreu/L. Garcia/Scrubb until Baez is ready
Great news on Framber. If everybody is on top of their game, a rotation of Greinke, Framber, Odorizzi, McCullers, and Urquidy is good enough to hang with anyone, and with this lineup could be a 100 win team. Sure would be awesome if Verlander could be back to throw 2 innings at a time in Sep-Oct.
