There’s no potential in the window closing after this season. Not by a longshot. There’s still Bregman, Altuve, Brantley, Alvarez, Tucker, Valdez, Odorizzi, Javier, Urquidy, Paredes, Taylor, Straw, Baez, Pruitt, etc under contract And a payroll that jumps from 180+ million too 75 million with an owner that has proven he will spend. Gurriel + Pressly team options picked up, a few small level arbitration signings due. Astros can be looking at a payroll under $100 million when entering discussions on Correa, JV/Grienke/McCullers (only really need one), Maldy, J. Smith, the rest of the FA class. There’s more than enough $$$ to keep it going with several multi-year deals.
that’s why I said pending free agents. There is no guarantee that Crane will spend after circumstances such as the pandemic. We are not the Dodgers. I also think Correa will sign elsewhere.
Yes, there is a guarantee as the whole point of staying a few million under the luxury tax is that they can spend beyond it next season and not be penalized. Otherwise they probably would have signed JBJ or a closer. They are going to continue to put a team around the core for as many years as they can..and that core is evolving into new names as time continues. Astros are one of the most profitable franchises of the last 3-4 years in large part to deep playoff runs and large ticket revenue. Dodgers are forced to be in the same position as the Astros in 2022 free agency they are going to have to cut some corners for spending over the luxury tax for too long. Correa wants to be here, Astros want him to be here. Astros could throw him 25-30 mil AAV and still be 70-75 mil under the $200 mil luxury tax. Hardly even sweat on it. He’s not going anywhere. There’s no contender for him to have a starting spot in. Dodgers would rather pay Seager the same money, Mets would rather Lindor more money, etc. Blue Jays have Bichette, Yanks have Torres, Padres have Tatis, etc Point is locking up your franchise player since the start of the whole rebuild who’s only 26..with his prime years ahead..as Dusty noted. They’d still have plenty of money to work with and it’s not going to break the bank working out 1-2 yr deals with FA’s in their late 30’s like Maldy, J Smith, JV and/or Grienke. There’s nothing stopping Crane from opening MMP 100%. No other state can say that.
Correa hitting lead off would be intriguing. I actually don’t hate it. I do NOT like the idea of Straw leading off. I think his aptitude to steal bases is nice, but I’d rather not have him running at the top of the order unless there are 2 outs or if it’s situation specific. Just seems like an unnecessary risk at the top of our order. Now if Straw bats 9th, that can open things up a bit more if there are already a few outs in a given inning. Correa may do really well batting lead off and focusing on setting the table.
Correa Brantley (L) Bregman Alvarez (L) Altuve Tucker (L) Gurriel Maldy Straw Splits up our lefties, and bats our best hitter 3rd.
Correa Altuve Bregman Alvarez Brantley Tucker Gurriel Maldanado Straw I don't think the breaking up lefties thing matters as much anymore with the rule that a reliver has to be in for 3 batters.
But that rule doesn't matter if you put all 3 lefties together. Now they can just bring in a loogy to face those 3 batters. Granted Brantley, Tucker, and Alvarez is a tough matchup regardless but still lol
True but I think they go with the lineup that puts people in the best position to succeed and not worry about how their opponents handle their pen.
Yeah shouldn’t build the lineup on what you may potentially see an opposing team do in the last 3-4 innings.
Give me altuve in the leadoff spot and Brantley batting 2nd. I want those guys getting as many AB's as possible. Correa in the 5 hole works for me.
From 2017-2019, the Astros averaged 57.3 fWAR (33.8 position player, 23.6 pitching). Their current Depth Chart projections have them at 41.6 (28.8 position, 12.6 pitching), which would put them at 16 wins below their 2017-2019 standard. Those teams average ~104 wins, which means this roster would project at ~88 wins. I would take the over on that. Here's one scenario to get them to their 2017-2019 averages: Bregman 5.5 Correa 4.5 Altuve 3.5 Tucker 3.5 Alvarez 3.5 Brantley 2.5 Gurriel 2 Straw 2 Maldonado 1.5 Castro 1.5 Others 3.5 Greinke 4 McCullers 3.5 Odorizzi 2.5 Urquidy 2.5 Valdez 2.5 Javier 2 Other SP 2 Bullpen 4.5 That's a tall order. Essentially guys performing 25-30% over their projections across the board. There's more upside on the position player side, as any of the top 5 guys could conceivably beat those numbers by 2-3 wins in a best case scenario. But it is really difficult to see this pitching staff putting up 23.5 fwar without a major deadline acquisition or multiple young pitchers turning into aces overnight.
I would say it matters more for the reason Rockets12 says. I think you only differed from me on one switch - Altuve for Brantley. Based on their last two seasons, I'd say Brantley hits for a better average, has a higher OBP, and a little less pop. They're similar hitters. Neither runs much. But based on those profiles, the better choice is to bat the high-OBP guy higher, and the better slugger a little further down. Honestly I'm fine with Altuve being swapped for Correa, too. Altuve gets more hits, but fewer walks and strikeouts. Correa has a bit more power. Both productive, but Correa's bat might be ideally suited for 5th given his tendency to swing for the fences.
