the MACD for BX has crossed-over the horizontal line, pin ball action from the rise in financials Blackstone is one of the world's leading private equity / investment and advisory firms
Just dropped in to ask opinions on RBLX. Thinking of jumping in. My kids and probably everyone else’s plays this but once they hit teens they tend to move on. They said their focus is to identify ways to reach older users who actually make money rather then get Robux gift cards for birthday presents. I like the product but they’ve had negative net income for the last three years and are banking on the increased daily average users continuing and not just a result of everyone staying at home.
a triple top or a 3-mo long consolidation base ( an outgrowth of GM announcing a chip shortage ) from which to pop to the extent that the MACD histogram has crossed-over, i believe a pop is coming. a flag formation built upon a previous flag formation if one subscribes to the Elliot Wave Theory, the 5th wave is coming, w a near-term target of 65
My son plays it as well. I only let him have 2 games on his iPad Pro and he keeps roblox and rotates the other game. I like their business model as well. I think the valuation is just way way too high. I anticipate the drop I mentioned in my other post. I could easily be wrong though.
after a drop of 35, in sympathy to the tech wreck, NET has bounced off the lower trading channel. its MACD is approaching the cross-over point today's trading closed above 20d ma, heading towards 50d ~ 78.5 the lagging indicator, Parabolic SAR, has confirmed a change in direction once it trades above 50 dma, it'd not be far-fetched to say that it can reach 98.5 before the mid-May ERS
Their current market cap of $38B is the same as Electronic Arts. EA has awful culture and management but they do own a ton of IP and create many hit franchises. EA also generates over 5X the revenue of Roblox. Is Roblox's virtual world = EA? Based on fundamentals and the foreseeable future, NOPE x 3. But this market isn't basing things on fundamentals (see: GME) who knows how high it will fly? That being said, I do like Roblox's product (just not at that valuation) and am impressed they have survived and thrived. I got recruited there 10 years ago when they were struggling so it is impressive to see them figure it out over a decade because the gaming industry is super competitive.
The kids I have interviewed for my research swear they will keep playing roblox till they are adults, but they are 7 years old, I'm not sure if I can trust them Are there lock up restrictions? Will try to remember to check back in 6 months. Also U is $29bn, rather get that
Unity is another company that I think is terribly over-valued. Sure they're the dominant engine by far for most mobile games (including the one I work on) but they don't make much money on licenses. Their biggest missed opportunity imo was their failure to build a successful ad network that would tap into all the games using their engine. That being said, I'd rather invest in Unity at $29B than Roblox at $38B.
Do you think U's moat is strong? What's the likelihood of a third engine disrupting them? Also is it a case where if they tried to monetize licensing more, everyone would switch, limiting future earning potential? I've got a tiny position and short puts, but also scared to put too much into U cos of valuation. The ad stuff may be a deadend with aapl and googl "privacy" moves as well. Investing in U today needs belief that they will maintain dominant market share in growing space, and hopefully branch out beyond gaming with their AR stuff. If they can't maintain that position it will look overpriced very quickly.
FLGT half price from high a month ago. P/E of 10, Fwd P/E of 8. 2.7bn market cap, 400m cash and eq on the balance sheet, with 77% opr margin this should grow to $1bn this year. Fear/risk is that post pandemic perf in 2022 onwards suck. Premiums on Apr puts look attractive. https://fulgentgenetics.gcs-web.com...s-reports-record-fourth-quarter-and-full-year
Yes and no. Unreal has the most robust engine but it is also the hardest to learn and the most expensive to license, which is why you only see it used on AAA console/PC games in general. Unity has very good tools but one of the main reasons why it gained market share in the mobile community is because it is free up to a certain point I think and the licenses are reasonably priced. Similar to albums and movies, most games will not be profitable. There are nearly 1MM games in the App Store, but only ~250 that make more than $10MM revenue a year. Even if you could charge an exorbitant $1MM a year for a usage license, that's $250MM and it won't grow much over time. They charge $200 per seat per month btw (so an average dev team is racking up maybe $2-10K/month in Unity fees, or $24-120K/year). In the gaming industry, we always predicted that Unity's long-term plan was to get bought by Microsoft or Google or some other big tech/gaming company because their margins are too weak to go IPO or to be self-sustaining but here we are. Also their ad product failed not because of GDPR or privacy laws but because they simply didn't execute well (Apple is also notorious for making crappy ad platforms/products). TLDR - Their moat is not as strong as it appears because most games don't need to utilize all their fancy bells and whistles, and their moat is not deep because most games don't make money so they can't squeeze more money from licenses. If they tried to jack up license fees, it would cause many devs to switch to other engines, thus giving up their market share.
RBLX fundamentals don't matter. Nothing matters. Eventually options will be allowed to trade on it and it'll go up 30+%. It's $45 target is too high AND the stock price WILL STILL go up a lot in the near term (barring market crash). All of these overpriced tech IPOs blow past their initial offer price, dip a little, then go up a ton - before nature takes over.
PLTR 7 trading days ago, there was a doji indicating hesitation among traders since than, the stock price has been inching higher the MACD histogram has crossed-over zero the lagging indicator, SAR has confirmed a change in direction, to the upside there is a good chance that it will close above the 50 dma today, w 20 dma in sight. should it rise above 20 dma, ~ 28.28, 37.5 will be the next target
So much of my dividend-type holds are at annual highs today. MMM Sysco JPM OZK etc Regardless I should have just put all my money last March/April into CAKE PLAY & TPR they are up soooo much since then. Hopefully they reinstate their dividends soon too. Hindsight as always is the best when i bought shares of dave and busters to hold i thought there was a somewhat decent chance they would go bankrupt.
