This is a great article. Every democrat should read the entire thing. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...autopsy-hispanic-vote-midterms-trump-gop.html These things stood out to me. "What’s changed since November is that we now have individual-level vote-history data in a bunch of states. And we also have a lot more precinct-level data. And people have had more time to run surveys. So the picture has gotten clearer. One high-level takeaway is that the 2020 electorate had a very similar partisan composition to the 2016 electorate. When the polls turned out to be wrong — and Trump turned out to be much stronger than they predicted — a lot of people concluded that turnout models must have been off: Trump must have inspired higher Republican turnout than expected. But that looks wrong. It really seems like the electorate was slightly more Democratic than it had been in 2016, largely due to demographic change (because there’s such a large partisan gap between younger and older voters, every four years the electorate gets something like 0.4 percent more Democratic just through generational churn). So Trump didn’t exceed expectations by inspiring higher-than-anticipated Republican turnout. He exceeded them mostly through persuasion. A lot of voters changed their minds between 2016 and 2020. At the subgroup level, Democrats gained somewhere between half a percent to one percent among non-college whites and roughly 7 percent among white college graduates (which is kind of crazy). Our support among African Americans declined by something like one to 2 percent. And then Hispanic support dropped by 8 to 9 percent. The jury is still out on Asian Americans. We’re waiting on data from California before we say anything. But there’s evidence that there was something like a 5 percent decline in Asian American support for Democrats, likely with a lot of variance among subgroups. There were really big declines in Vietnamese areas, for example. Anyway, one implication of these shifts is that education polarization went up and racial polarization went down." Over the last four years, white liberals have become a larger and larger share of the Democratic Party. There’s a narrative on the left that the Democrats’ growing reliance on college-educated whites is pulling the party to the right (Matt Karp had an essay on this recently). But I think that’s wrong. Highly educated people tend to have more ideologically coherent and extreme views than working-class ones. We see this in issue polling and ideological self-identification. College-educated voters are way less likely to identify as moderate. So as Democrats have traded non-college-educated voters for college-educated ones, white liberals’ share of voice and clout in the Democratic Party has gone up. And since white voters are sorting on ideology more than nonwhite voters, we’ve ended up in a situation where white liberals are more left wing than Black and Hispanic Democrats on pretty much every issue: taxes, health care, policing, and even on racial issues or various measures of “racial resentment.” So as white liberals increasingly define the party’s image and messaging, that’s going to turn off nonwhite conservative Democrats and push them against us. Thanks for alerting me to this O's
I'm wondering about this. If Trump didn't exceed expectations by getting higher than anticipated Republican turnout but through getting voters to change their minds from 2016 how does that work with the record turnout numbers that we saw in 2020 including in Republican areas? Is the argument that all the new turnout went to Biden? Is there polling data showing votes that went from Clinton in 2016 to Trump in 2020? Biden was specifically considered "electable" because of his appeal to white voters. He was seen as "Joe from Scranton" who could appeal to white working class voters, or at least not alarm them. In that regard he definitely succeeded. Even though by many measures Trump was awful incumbency carries a lot of power which is why there are few one term Presidents. The particular decline in numbers regarding declines in black, Hispanic and Vietnamese support would be interesting to see a breakdown regarding gender, income and education. It sounds like according to this author there was a difference in education. Regarding that white liberals are more liberal than many minority groups I think that's been true for quite awhile particularly on social issues. Following our discussions regarding "Defund the Police" from what I've seen support for more aggressive reform does seem stronger among white voters. I know in Minneapolis there have been protests against defunding the police in predominately black neighborhoods.
My bad, how could I leave that out? https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...autopsy-hispanic-vote-midterms-trump-gop.html
Conclusion: Attention GOP - get someone relatable, that isn't polarizing, and isn't white af to run. Shoot 3's, no more midrange.
Hard to see any way that Bernie would have won. I’m not Biden super fan but him being able to hold conservative African Americans might have been the lynch pen that could have lost Penn, Wisconsin, MI, and GA. Biden still dropped off a ton of conservative Latinos still but those states (tx and Fl) probably weren’t the states his strategists wanted to bank on the way they did with the rust belt.
Yeah it's actually scary how Republicans could have a stranglehold on power if they had somebody like Rove and Bush in control with a populist message. They just can't stop overreaching and stop with being so greedy.
I will say this, it feeds into the argument that Donny and progressives make about identity politics and how the Democratic party relies to much on that. Right now there are a lot of things being brought up in the house catering to that stuff. It's the bigotry of low expectations with Democrats thinking they know what's good or what energizes certain populations. The numbers around immigration was eye opening.
I guess the math is: 7-8% White switch to Biden > 2% Black + 8-9% Hispanic + TBD % Asian switch to Trump How much of this switch is lasting vs for one election cycle? I didn't detect the answer in that article. "Democrats gained somewhere between half a percent to one percent among non-college whites and roughly 7 percent among white college graduates (which is kind of crazy). Our support among African Americans declined by something like one to 2 percent. And then Hispanic support dropped by 8 to 9 percent." EDIT: My own color rosed view is Trump invested quite a bit to win over Black, so that 2% is not that surprising. The 8-9% Hispanic loss is due to 'defund the police' more than AoC/Bernie socialist. I think 'defund the police' reality (not happening) under Biden will help correct that. The 7-8% White switch to Biden - doubtful that's coming back as long as it's Trump party and Biden doing popular economic things. And fully agree on HR1. As for statehoods - go for it.
Yes I just read the whole piece and I agree it sounds like the gain was based on pulling in minority votes for Trump. I also agree that the "Defund Police" message was harmful in regard to minority support especially given there was a rise in crime in many urban areas last summer.
There is nothing surprising about this. We already know 2016 was about immigration and Hispanics taking jobs. This is why the DNC should have let Bernie Sanders support run its course because his message had its best shot in 201y 2020 was about Trump's record.
What did you think of him saying we must do away with the filibuster and saying we need to do statehood to have any hope of staying in power? Seemed to be a bit of overheated rhetoric especially with the demographics changing in the suburbs. I am not opposed to doing any of that but I don't like doing it as a power grab.
