You’re right, and when Portland is healthy and with Butler tearing it up for Miami we could easily end up with two picks in the low 20’s this year. Maybe we should send Stevie Franchise to represent us at the draft lottery.
To finish .500 the Rockets would have to basically go around .667 or so Wood and replacement level players (regardless if that replacement level player is PJ or some guy in RGV) aren't doing that. Best case scenario is 25 wins or so. Best case!
That means we go 15-16 the rest of the way - that's highly optimistic! Model is too sticky on past performances of faded players like Wall
True..,and chances are we trade or cut players like: Oladipo: trade for picks, expiring contracts, and young players (look how bad our players looked learning this system the 1st month). Tucker: traded for young player(s) or 2nd round pick(s) equivalent. Nwaba: traded for 2nd round pick or buyout Sterling Brown: traded for 2nd round pick or buyout Cousins: cut or buyout.....very slim chance of trade if not cut already. Exum: traded for ham sandwich or doughnuts. Not cutting or buying out remainder of $9M. Not TF m.o. Easily sit or rest Wood and Wall intermittently because we can't afford either getting hurt and risk losing interest of free agents at any level. Even if they are 2nd or 3rd tier level free agents, we need a healthy Wood and Wall to attract them. Severe injury to either scares most free agents away. Wall can at least bring the ball up the court and dribble penetrate. Next season he should look better in his rehab, being a season removed. Can see us getting considerably worse as the schedule also gets tougher and we lean on guys like Patton.
Man, that’s a weird prediction. That’s .361 not since 2007, has the 4th worst record been that good. .366 is usually in the 6-8th worst record range. That model must not take into account end-season tanking races for better picks.
... and you have to factor in the shortened season so every loss counts more. It does all come out in the percentages but it reduces the permutations seeding wise
11-20 through the first half of the season with one of the easiest schedules in the league. Anybody think they improve on that post all star break? I'm feeling like we will all be discussing Cade, Kuminga and the Jalens as much as Wood, Tate and KPJ here shortly.
If I remember correctly 538 tends to gravitate towards the middle (predicts almost no 60 win loss teams even though they occur most years)
Doesn’t matter why they are wrong about W/Ls of 4th worst record. What matters is not paying attention to an obviously bad model when it comes to predicting losses of worst teams in league. They are probably OK with their ranking predictions (in that they are wrong about everyone), but for fans to actually discuss number of losses it takes to be 4th worst record, historical models will say they are waaaaay off.
I think we’ll finish the season just a slight correction...it would mean us going 15-26 the rest of the way...about a 30 win pace maybe with Wood this team could maintain a 30 win pace, but this team looks like a typical 22 win team during a regular 82 game season, so I think they’ll settle in at a 22 win pace the rest of the way and finish around 22-50 on the year hopefully
A .361 pace is NOT going to land the 4th worse record. Look at the league history...been 14 yrs since that happened. That model is worthless when it comes to predicting number of losses of the worst teams. it may do well predicting the rankings of teams, since they’ll be equally wrong about everyone’s losses, but it’s a waste of time to actually use their W-L numbers, to guess how many losses we need.
you’re taking their projections as something concrete when it’s not...it’s updated weekly...by next week, the projections for all these terrible teams will be even lower not sure why you’re making a big deal out of nothing
Dipo never played with Harden.... Even though I think bottoming out is the most prudent plan you are just sticking your head in the sand in regards to the timing of it all. There's a good chance that not only we lose a high pick this year, but Dipo is a dud and we have to sell pennies on the dollar.
cleveland is currently 4th with a 0.364 and we're 3rd at 0.355. while i would probably guess 4th will be lower than 0.361, there seems to be a tremendous amount of parity this year with so many teams around 0.500 and not a ton of top teams that are just battering all of the lower seeds at a near 100% clip like in some years. plus, predictive models are almost always bad at the extremes. the team with the best record almost always wins a lot of close games and outperforms their actual MOV and the worst team tends to do the opposite. we just don't notice when a 47 win team wins 51 because it's in the middle of the pack but a 59 win team winning 63 and having the best record stands out.
I’m merely cautioning against using their *current* prediction of Losses needed for 4th, and providing the last 14yrs of data for comparison. I think that model is currently off by 5 losses. that’s all ... plus I’m bored in search of BBall chat Yes, it’s called end-season tanking as bad teams convert their 2-ways to give them more and more PT to assess their value leading into RFA or cutting them. Plus other FRPs get more PT, etc. it’s development-based excuse for tanking in race to better draft position. Not to mention those fighting for playoff HCA and (even more important) play-in position will tend to go all out for wins...making it easier to lose to them. Ending year as 7th or 8th is HUGE as you then only need 1win during play-in. And 11th team will likely fight hard for making 9th, 10th play-in spot. Historically, we’ll want to shoot for 30%, which is a huge 5 loss difference than the model currently predicts for the Rockets 30% is 51 losses this year The model currently has us at 46 losses The return of Wood can swing that to “no-chance” territory, imo we’ll need to balance Wood’s return with development-PT “tanking” Bottomline: we need to get worse, not status quo
