[ESPN] Carlos Correa open to long-term contract with Houston Astros, if done before season starts

Yeah that's why I just said 200 million.

 

Those 4 shortstops have out-produced Correa. The teams that are going to plop down 325+ million dollar contract that will look at production much heavier than "upside", especially after 6 years in the league. These types of contracts can cripple a team if they are wrong. That's how I figure

 

How many years and what about an opt out?

 

Pujols did live up to his first contract with the Cardinals... which is at the stage Correa is at.

It’s the second contract that doesn’t make any sense. I hope the Astros figure out something for the first part (to at least keep Altuve-Bregman-Correa primes intact) and let somebody else overpay for regression.

 

By this logic, sounds like you’re not going to be confident in having any part of Correa being here if you’ve already bought into the back being crippling.

I saw enough athleticism defensively last year and he peaked at the plate in the playoffs (roughly mid season in a normal year) to go along with 2019 post back excellence to say there’s some potential windfall there if he’s figured out how to train appropriately.

Based on what has been divulged from his medicals, he does not have a disc, degenerative, or anatomic issue... if he did, surgery would have likely been discussed as more of an option.

but yes... backs can be tricky and can always flare up as a player gets older. But I’m more optimistic when a 20 something year old can go a full 2 plus years without missing time due to it.

 

Are you saying Correa went 2 years without missing time from his back?

That's not accurate. He hurt it originally in 2018. Then it flared up again on August 19, 2019 against the Tigers . He didn't play again until September 17th.

 

1.5 years then... and 2019 was in the midst of whatever he was doing or not doing post rib fracture.

I’m not saying it’s entirely behind him. It never will be. Nobody should be committing 10 years to him (or anybody). But he’s shown enough athletic abilities since then to also not make him a lost cause or write him off entirely. He’s also avoided requiring any invasive procedures due to structural instability.

 

I'm only ok with keeping Correa on a team friendly deal. As others have said those bad big money contracts really cripple your ballclub. Knowing Click was reared on the Rays school of thought, I think we'll be economical about it unless Crane steps in.

In all honestly though, Correa has been a disappointment compared to his prospect status. His power just hasn't come around and I'm less inclined to believe it ever will. He's never hit over 25 HR in a season. Knowing Carlos, he probably thinks he's the best shortstop in the game and is asking for a lot. I'm ok with letting him walk. Let's see what we have with Jeremy Pena. He could be an Andrelton Simmons type. Or you can move Bregs to short and figure something out at 3rd.

 

Astros could pay Correa $30 mil a year if they want and still be $100 million under the luxury tax next season. It’s hardly a crippling deal for a 26 year old who’s got the third highest WAR amongst shortstops in MLB (even with the missed time). His defense is that great.

I think he can be locked up at $25 mil a year at most but I wouldn’t cry if it was $30. They will have three everyday players in the lineup making the league minimum, two starters making the league minimum and Valdez probably getting 3-5 mil in his first year of arbitration next season. They don’t have to be cheap on Correa.

With Verlander earning $60 + mil making one start from last season and this, his age and uncertainty of how he bounces back AND Grienke those are the players you target on team friendly deals. Or turn it over too top prospects or FA starters like Heaney, Bundy, Lynn, etc that won’t break the bank.

 

6 or 7, sure maybe an opt out in there.

For what it’s worth I could see him resigning with us in that situation for closer to the 5-6 yrs 150-180 million. I’m just talking about what he would get on the open market.

I’m probably going to get roasted for saying that, but it’s what I believe. It doesn’t have to make logical sense, and 29 teams can think he’s not worth that. All it takes is the Yankees or some other ****boi team to throw a bunch of money at him.

I firmly believe if we let him go we will be screwed. We’ll be watching him crush homers against us in the playoffs or watching from the couch. I also understand there is a decent risk that in a 10 year deal we might be eating salary at the end of it. Personally, I don’t care. It’s a risk, no ****. But I believe with this core intact we will compete for WS for the next 4-5 years and if that’s the case it’s worth it no matter how the last few years play out.

Being cheap about Correa is not the way to go. You can be cheap with other things, but we can’t **** this up. James Click needs to get this deal done whether it’s before or after the season (I prefer before).

 

Premium A#1 Deluxe Nut post.

 

Yeah tell me what’s not factual.

 

Signing a player to a 8-10 year deal at 30 million a season is crippling if he gets injured or plays poorly because of injury.

Also, even if the Astros CAN do it, it doesn't mean it is the best use of assets.

 

Never said anything about 8-10 years. Injuries are a part of baseball and any sport.

The Astros CAN easily afford it and paying a top five SS is a fine use of assets. Doesn’t affect them from adding quality players on smaller scale deals too put around the core of Bregman, Correa, Altuve, etc and keeping the championship window open.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-to-make-of-carlos-correa/



Given the inevitable emphasis on offense, Correa’s 2020 obviously wouldn’t be an ideal platform season from which to launch into free agency, but fortunately for him, he gets a do-over. A mega-deal on the scale of Tatis or Mookie Betts is probably out of the question barring a strong showing in 2021, and looking at a 10-year ZiPS projection provided by Dan Szymborski, even $200 million could be a reach:



With his playing time suppressed due to his track record for injuries to the point that he never reaches 500 PA (in this case, at-bats plus walks since Dan didn’t provide hit-by-pitch projections), Correa projects to produce “only” 24.5 WAR from 2022-31, his age-27 to age-36 seasons. That might be underselling him, given that ZiPS’s defensive input is (if I understand Dan correctly) an average of UZR and DRS with some age-based regression built in. Particularly given the extent to which Correa’s numbers differ, his value would be higher if the projection were relying only on DRS.

Anyway, via Szymborski’s model, that projection still equates to a 10-year, $202 million deal, though of course, a team might reasonably opt to go for a shorter contract given the near-total disappearance of regular shortstops older than 35. Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins are the only ones to reach 100 games at the position in a single season in the past 13 years, and there have been just 13 such seasons since the start of the Wild Card era, six of them by Hall of Famers (four by Jeter, two by Barry Larkin). They’re an endangered species.

If Correa were to match that projection (including for 2021), he’d finish his age-36 season with 54.7 career WAR, well short of the Hall of Fame standard for shortstops (67.5), though as he might be losing a win or more per year to the choice of defensive metric, I don’t think we need to take that conclusion literally; he could well land closer to the mark.

 

Not a top 5 SS anymore.

 

Injuries can happen in any sport, but it is a different situation when you have someone in their mid 20's and already has a chronic back condition and cannot put a full season together.

He isn't a top 5 SS getting so few at bats.

He is certainly capable of winning a few MVP's but I wouldn't give him 30 million a year for the mere chance.

His expectations have been outrageous.

 

I am not a fan of giving him an 8-10 year mega contract, but those WAR projections for the next 5 years seem awfully low. If he is relatively healthy, as the number of at bats indicate, I would expect the average to be closer to 4.5 - 5.

 

That wasn’t a sarcastic post. I agree 1000% on everything you said. Moreover, it’s refreshing seeing someone not losing their mind over money that isn’t theirs. It’s Carlos F-ing Correa. You have to keep him.

 

No, you don't have to keep him.

Nationals let the face of their franchise walk away in Harper and won the World Series the next season. You have to build a deep and complete roster. I don't want the Astros to have 40% of the payroll tied up in Bregman, Altuve, and Correa in 2 years. I want Correa back, but the price has to be right. 30 million a year is not acceptable to me. I would rather gamble and let the season play out. Correa has not put together that monster season in 6 years. I have zero problems with the Astros betting against him and his health.