Top 4 pick or Bust!

These posts should be required reading for anyone who argues that biting the bullet for a single, short season (where Covid will likely result in whoever wins the title having a great big asterisk anyway) is a fool's errand only supported by so-called fans. Thank you sir, I think the towel needs to be thrown in on this one.

 

Once again the last Champion to tank was the Lakers, they never would have gotten AD or Lebron without those assets from tanking.

 

@SamFisher brought the heat in this thread...well damn

 

They didn’t tank. They were just that bad.

 

The best path for this team to be relevant is to hire someone like Sam Hinkie.

 

This should be shouted from the roof tops. @Trackwell

 

interesting question. I guess that is because every player would get their individual ring if the team win the ring, not the other way around.

 

I watched a bit of OSU-Texas, cade Cunningham didn't look great but I'll take him

This team is fine but not good enough to waste your mental energy with.

Tank tank tank get dem balls!

 

Yup so the point is the team that drafts the superstar doesnt benefit from the superstar most of the time.

You need to look at it from investment POV, you are the team the cost is tanking and draft picks the return is a ring not a superstar player. From that POV most teams who invest in a superstar dont really profit from their investment, so in that sense the Process route looks good in theory but hasnt worked out in reality IMO.

 

Alright, lay it on me. Who we trading and how? I'd like the tank-or-nothing bloviators to shift from the same tired clichés that everyone's heard a thousand times and start laying out a realistic path for how this team is going to become bad enough this season to have a worse record than some of these embarrassing perennial bottom feeders. You make it sound like it's a snap of the finger, so let's hear it.

How many first round picks you getting rid of to trade John Wall?

What about Gordon? Are you adding another first round pick to get rid of his contract?

You want to get rid of Wood? We'll just draft another 20/10 guy with potential to replace him, right? Easy.

What about guys like Tate and Nwaba and House? These guys were picked up off the trash heap and were turned into bargain bin players. Now that they look like diamonds in the rough, pro-tankers all nudging each other like, "oh man, these cats are a a little too good. We got get rid of 'em." L..O...L

And I'm fine with getting rid of the easier contracts to move like Oladipo, Tucker, and House. But spoiler we're still not going to be depraved enough to out-suck 4 other NBA ****-shows. You want to start getting rid of guys like Tate and Nwaba too? How about Sterling Brown while we're at it? He's shot the ball pretty well. (Sorry, I just can't help but laugh that we're now advocating to get rid of these undrafted/abandoned "scrubs" in order to realize our tank dreams...it's unintentional comedy).

Frankly, you guys sound pretty entitled. What did you think was going to happen? The past few seasons we mortgaged away our future to "win now." That was the deal. It all came crashing down almost immediately. And now you're upset that our future isn't on the up-and-up immediately? Well, no ****! Again, that was the deal, and now we're paying for it. I don't really get the rush to be reckless and make it worse by throwing away some of the assets we have in hand (like Wood and first round picks) for the mere chance at getting a top 4 pick this season. It's like some of you aren't built for a rebuild (pun intended). It's going to take a little patience.

The organization hasn't really done anything yet to signal they're going the long-term mediocrity route, so I don't know why you're all getting so red-faced about it. The only thing that can really be deduced so far is the front office seems to be prioritizing draft picks over high-paid fake superstars, so at the moment there's no reason to think they plan on doing anything but a rebuild that centers around the draft.

 

Investment POV??? Every year 31 of 32 NFL teams light $200M on fire to watch it burn. Every year 29 of 30 NBA teams do the same with $130M. The poker game still goes on every year. You are using the same stat argument sealclubber used earlier in this thread with no analysis. The stat you quote about stars has no positive correlation to actual winning. We know who won since 1980. There is no Lakers dynasty without Magic (Shaq and Kobe also don't go there and neither does LBJ), Celtics without Bird, Bulls without Jordan, Rockets without Dream, Spurs without Duncan, and anyone without LBJ. There are no guarantees that you will win if you have one but there is pretty much a guarantee you won't win if you don't. Also, painfully missing is the recognition that although players change teams they don't just always go for no compensation. This ignores history. Also, Butlers, Manu's, Goberts, Capela's, and others don't grow on trees and call out to you in the draft either and take time to develop. The undeniable point in all of this is you have to have one of these golden tickets to get on the train regardless of what happens to the pick or player. Once you have the ticket, winning is dependent on planning, luck, timing, and flexibility. The Rockets did all of those things without having the ticket and it almost worked because they stole a ticket.

Sixers, Celtics, GSW, and Rockets all took chances and got a ticket with one succeeding and the other failing but does that mean their plan was wrong? Rockets mortal blow came from Ryno and letting their assets die on the vine. Ainge's Celtics missed on getting Davis earlier. Were they wrong? Hell no, I would copy them almost exactly. Philly was sabotaged by NBA and Colangelo's or else Hinkie would have had Tatum too, stole Covington from us, and all of his assets even after flubbing on MCW and Okafor. Process didn't work? Revisionist history and look at the standings even with Simmons that can't shoot. Read Hinkie's resignation letter. That's not the thinking of someone lacking perspective or that failed.

Dipo, EGo, Tucker, Wall, Cousins, and Exum will not be on this team after next year. What team do you want in 2023? If we don't tank now we never will and get used to the Yaoless Rockets again. If you argue Wood, Tate, Nwaba, House, Porter, and Jones aren't good enough then everyone agrees but most will be here in 2023. What do we do then? They need real minutes they will never get with the former players staying here. Like Nook, I think we need to bottom out and acquire bad contracts and acquire assets like smart teams do. Bad teams play their young players and we are not competing for the 4th seed. That should be obvious to everyone by now. Against better teams with stars we will lose. It was fine to blame Harden when he was going 1 on 4 or 2 on 5 against other stars and calling it choking but that BS has now cleared out for the reality that is setting in. Other teams have them and we don't. Wood looks like a star and could be an all-star. Tate, Nwaba, and House look like decent starters/role players. Porter and Jones are mysteries and like the rest will stay right where they are if we don't give them real minutes now. This isn't the playoff Rockets. This is a bad team that has too much undeveloped talent and needs to find out what it has quickly. By 2023, Wood could be an all-star and most of these other players are going to get much better and contribute and we could have two max slots with a ton of assets from these former players and our existing vault with one or two additional lottery picks to build an enduring team that does have stars and can compete realistically.

 

Why? We just started rebuilding like a fortnight ago.

 

Simple, you keep Gordon and resign Dipo and maybe Tucker then you have Wall you end up keeping a 40 win team that doesn't get two lottery picks. If you plan on not resigning any of these players you should trade them while they have value. People against tanking now all of the sudden want the option to tank later after signing multiyear contracts with players you will have to move to tank? I think the point is to get on with the future. We have an OLD team. We need to align our assets. That is why we won't tank later. If we keep these players that decision has been made. I don't want to tank later because that means we wasted several more years before realizing a core of Cousins, Wall, Dipo, Tucker, and EGo cannot compete with the big boys.

 

You went off on so many tangents I dont really know whether you were replying to me or not.

First of all the investment I meant is in regards to tanking and draft picks not monetary value. Teams make money even without getting a championship, see Houston Rockets who becMe 4rth highest value in the NBA despite not getting a ring in like 2 decades. The investment Im talking about is tanking and using their picks to get a ring.

The Process worked in getting assets, thats it. Even if they got Tatum, Simmons, Porzingis and Embiid in one squad guess what thats still not a ring. Celtics have a young core with Tatum and Brown guess what they dont have a ring too. How you know those teams wont implode befoe they get a ring ala OKC? We dont, cuz the Process got axed even before it reached that stage its all hypothetical at this point.

I'm not denying you need a golden ticket to win in the NBA, I'm saying stats show tanking doesnt result in the original team with the golden ticket winning in the NBA. You keep saying Im trying to use stats with no numbers what do you call the 14 lotto picks every year? I already posted a link about the chances of a typical lotto pick succeeding and 75% of lottos dont even became an all star once in their entire career. Its that bad.

Even if you do luck out on a golden ticket so what? Minny lucked on KLove, Toronto lucked on Bosh, No lucked on AD. Did they all get a ring? No! Some other team rode their golden ticket and not them. I didnt ignore that a lot of those teams got compensation for their star, but thats also a loss in time. You just spend your time spinning your wheels again and restarting everything from the beginning. NO sure they got a King's ransom for AD, but the reality is they back to the drawing board after like 8 yrs of AD. If you are gonna spend 8 years not winning a ring Id rather be a mediocre team than a lotto team, I'd rather watch 8 years of winning 40 games than 8 yrs of winning 13 games if the end result is the same.

The argument that only superstars win a ring is a strawman cuz I'm not denying that. I'm saying tanking isnt the only way to get a superstar, you can get them via FA or trade. High lotto picks are valuable, but they arent the only commodity available you can get other assets you realize how many assets Rox got now? They still havent tanked. OKC owns the draft for the next 10 years and they havent tanked yet. There are many ways to do asset accumulation, and being terrible is just one way to do it. Rox have so many young guys now that need PT and they did it without tanking. Even got Wood who is an allstar level player...without tanking! Tanking isnt the only way to get assets and build a contender. Planning and strategies dont apply to just tanking teams as well lmao.

Being competitive allows you to sign premium FAs which then can be flipped for assets if it doesnt pan out. Tanking turns off FA so they dont go to you. Paul George only went to OKC cuz they got WB, if they were trash he wouldnt have gone there he would have gone to somewhere else. Wood came to Houston cuz we still got Harden at the time, if we got a bunch of nonames we would be like Atlanta you know who they got? Gallinari and Rondo at overpaid prices. Dipo only saw a future in Houston cuz they got Wood and Wall. If they didnt have those two he woulda bailed to Miami and we wont an asset for him.

Tanking is like joining an MLM, you become a social pariah no FA wants to go to you unless you overpay them or they got no choice. If you really suck then without a stroke of luck its impossible to go from sucking to contender within 7 yrs, by that team your golden ticket will get antsy and leave to join another team. Of course you will get compensation for your golden ticket amazing man after 7 years of sucking you get to tank again.

Its not about the city, its about the winning. Boston is called BEANTOWN its full of old white people while NYC is the media mecha of the world. Why is it Boston gets FAs left and right and NYC cant get nobody? Its cuz 1 is winning and the other is a loser.

I dunno what will happen in 2023 buf I believe a Wood in hand is better than 2 lottos that have 75% chance of not making an allstar game once in their careers. If we suck and do nothing but suck for the 3 yrs he is here then he is gone.

 

A lot of this argument is circular where you're either agreeing with me or refuting a point I didn't make. Let's make it even simpler. If EGo was 25 and Dipo hadn't been hurt and on the decline and was 25, and Wall was 25, Cousins 25 and not washed, and Tucker was 25 to go with Wood then no one would be having this conversation. The facts are that whether the Rockets, you, or anybody else want to keep the current team together nature will take its course and soon. The Rockets can profit from that fact now or pay for it later. No one is going to care you made the 8th seed or just missed the playoffs the year Harden left and through injuries missed the playoffs the next year but put on a good show. Wood would leave because there is no future here. The die is cast. You can stay on the treadmill or you can do what successful teams do and take stock of where the ship is going. Morey was given an ultimatum he didn't choose. He had to get Harden because there were no other options. That was a gift that fell out of the sky and just doesn't happen where Harden ended up being something no one expected. Lightning isn't likely to strike that way again. Your way assumes that tanking is the Process and you do it exactly like Philly did. Therefore, you reject it and insist the team operate with its hands tied behind its back. It's called strategy. After 2022 almost every FA is available. We could be in position.

OKC is tanking and the right way. They are playing their young players and developing them and we're not. They got SGA and they traded Galinari, Adams, CP3 (further highlighting our stupidity), and Shroeder to get rid of all of their bad contracts and got others to take on more assets. Most of that stuff is expiring with players like Horford the exception (their Wall) and Ariza expiring and worthless. You have to have some money spent to a floor on salary. Does some team want George Hill that we don't know about. He isn't costing much. They are paying Horford at 27.5 for 3 while we are paying Wall at 41 for 3. Limits our movements. Also paying EGo 17 over 4, Dipo 21, Exum 9, and Tucker 8. OKC doesn't have that problem and Dipo, EGo, and Tucker have value to other teams. Trades out there might get us other lottery picks and possibly young players in our range that we can add now. That's aligning assets. I am suggesting a lot of the same things you are but I am just not tying myself down to this BS idea of anything we do on the court the next two years matters in terms of wins. That ties our hands behind our back. Our record should not matter. If we aren't building and developing our future assets we lost.

I don't want to be the NYK signing Dipo to a max contract extension to be a low tier East playoff team. I want to be the team that fleeced them by trading Dipo there and taking their picks and then using the salary matching with unwanted players from another team like the Magic. I don't want to resign Tucker, I want to set him free to someone that can appreciate him and we get something back. I don't want EGo's 4yr deal on the books, I want to see him have a real chance at winning before he's washed. Some team out there may REALLY appreciate LTS if it doesn't mean a drop off in talent. There is a team out there. They're smart too and have won a lot and have done everything I have described so they could win.

 

Everybody understands the tanking theory, so we don't need to keep on rehashing it. The problem is that the two best players you want to trade have contracts with negative trade value. I don't even think it's even possible to get rid of John Wall. Gordon's contract is not as large and yes he is good, but still one of the worst contracts in the league in terms of length+money+production.

Are you willing to package first round picks that we have in our hand to get rid of them? Just for the chance to be bad enough to have a chance to get a top 4 pick this season. If the lottery balls don't bounce are way and we end up with the fifth pick, we would have literally just given away first round picks for nothing.

I think our best bet is to trade Oladipo and Tucker. The only thing of value we're probably getting back for that is one lottery-protected first round pick plus maybe some other second round pick fodder. So not much, but better than nothing. But we're still not going to be bad enough without getting rid of positive assets.

 

so this thread is gonna be a thing after every loss this season huh.