I'm an engineer. I tend to think in a weight-of-evidence approach (how much does this help versus opportunity cost) and like to figure out why other people come to different conclusions than me especially when they are strongly held beliefs. WAR fits the way I think very well even if the existing systems aren't perfect. How many wins did the Astros get for what they could have gotten is how I value things. I'm not asking others to agree or disagree with this, but it is rough way I view the things Click has done versus opportunity cost without putting numbers to paper. Leon +4 wins Brantley +0.4 wins Castro 0 wins Baez -0.5 wins Raley +0.1 wins Stanek +0 to 0.1 wins Souza +0 to 0.1 wins Draft 0 wins There are things that annoy me while watching a game, but after the game won't think it was a big deal once emotion is gone. The Baez signing is like that with me. I hope my valuation of Leon is right or an understatement (my emotion thinks it is a huge understatement). It is driving my overall view of Click when not thinking about how unspectacular Baez signing is.
I tend to think in those general terms and everything must ultimately be weighted. The truth is, that while I would have rather seen Click get Hand or Colome and Soria over Baez and Castro; it is a marginal situation. Most of the issue is that some are concerned that we will see Click make a series of these types of decisions that over time make a larger impact. I also think it is being discussed because we had so little to spend. Had the Astros signed or claimed Hand AND signed Baez and Castro, not much would be made of the Baez signing. It is also possible that the Astros see something specific that they can improve in Baez' arsenal. I am doubtful only because the Dodgers are very good at player development.
The reverse could be true. The Astros could see something in Baez's arsenal that they can use to improve others (i.e., steal from Dodgers). He uses seam shifted wake on his change and slider. The Astros are masters of harnessing movement from transverse spin (e.g., high spin fastballs, high spin curveballs), but seam shifted wake needs less transverse spin (not necessarily less total spin though) that is different than what has come out of the Astros minors. Seam shifted wake is just a fancy term for wiggle, dark magic, weird, late movement, etc that causes the ball to move in a way not caused by its transverse spin, gravity, or inertia. All of Baez's pitches start out with spin creating a force to 11 o'clock (batter's view). His changeup moves more like the spin is pushing it to 9 o'clock. His slider, or what people call a slider, is all over the place, but generally does not have a strong force pushing it to 3'o'clock like most Astros sliders give or take an hour. I don't think the slider is useful, but understanding how some pitchers get dark magic on change ups may be useful.
It seems like you’re conflating “Basabe probably won’t be an Astro” (which I agree with) with “Basabe shouldn’t be an Astro” (which I also agree with, assuming Click has a plan to further address CF beyond Souza/Straw). Those are 2 different statements. You’re lumping “won’t” together with “shouldn’t”. One (sort of) contradicts my original comment, the other doesn’t. And now the Basabe horse lies in a bloody lifeless pulp.
Ha, it makes his arms seem really short. Let's hope he made the right decision getting bigger.... because he may be playing shortstop is 2022.
Dodgers just checkmated the Padres... Congrats on your offseason Padres. Kershaw, Buehler, Bauer, May, Price, Urias, Gonsolin Yuck.
I look forward to Dusty walking to home plate asking the umps to check him for sticky stuff in the World Series.
Look, I can't stand Bauer or the Dodgers, but this is a great deal for both sides. For the Dodgers: You have "F you" money, so why not spend it? You have Bellinger, May, Buehler, Seager all still in/before arbitration years. Seager might come off books after this year if he gets a massive offer somewhere else. Kershaw comes off books but could very well give you a team friendly deal as he's older, more injury prone and might want to be a Dodger his entire career. Adding $40 million to payroll this season and $45 next season doesn't really prevent them from re-signing Kershaw if they want to, and hell, they could decide to re-sign Seager as well (knowing there's a decent chance Bauer might try to opt out after 2022). For Bauer: You just guaranteed yourself $85 million over the next two seasons. Highest paid player both seasons. Then, when he's going into his age 32 season, and he would only be getting $17 million from the Dodgers, he can opt out of the deal and still get another massive pay day (whether that's from the Dodgers or somewhere else). Of course that's assuming he's pitching at a high level the next two seasons (not necessarily a given since he has struggled with inconsistency from year-to-year). There's no reason why he couldn't go sign a 5 year $140+ million deal after two years in LA if he wants to maximize his earnings. This is what happens when a team has "F you" money combined with an elite GM who has constructed an absolutely loaded roster and still has a very deep and talented farm system. I hate them, but the Dodgers will be serious playoff/WS contenders for the next 5+ years without any doubt in my mind.
I agree it's a little much, but look at it this way: At worst, he's a guy who can give you around 200 innings with a high 3's ERA that strikes out a ton of guys still. At best, he puts up numbers similar to what he did last season. Now his FIP was a whole run higher than his ERA, but his FIP was still right around 2.80 and he was striking out 12.3/nine and walking 2.1/nine with a WHIP around .75. Even if he regresses to a 3.00 ERA, striking out 11 per nine, walking 2.5 per nine with a WHIP around 1, that's still a really valuable player. The fact that the Dodgers have the financial ability to absorb that $45 million hit even if he's not an elite pitcher is seemingly unfair lol.
I mean he's had an era under 4 twice and only pitched 200 innings once right? Just crazy money for bauer imo
He's definitely the perfect example of a guy who's always had all the potential/talent in the world yet could never seem to put it all together. But he's had an elite season as recent as 2018 before his CY young season in 2020. He timed that season perfectly. Crazy to think about how different his market would've been if he'd been just a really good pitcher in 2020 rather than an other-worldly pitcher.
