The real change was the creation of tiers of odds and the bump up of the back teams from "astrononomically tiny" to "very low" .....there's not as much distance between finishing worst and finishing 3rd worst now, but after the 5th pick, your odds of finishing in the top 4 are still small, they only slightly improved. The expected pick value at 7 is now 6.2 (it used to be 6.8) - that's not nothing, unless you're top 4-only like the Rockets in which case, this pick is probably useless to you. The only thing you have are your odds of getting into the top 4, which are basically ~30%. And the Rockets are currently around pick 12, - making it 95% chance of being useless to them (barring some miracle of the Heat finishing below us, then obviously we keep it) If you finish as 4th, your odds of getting in the top 4 are ~50% That's a big change from 30%! And a way bigger change from 5%! Would you rather have a dice roll or a coinflip? Deeper than average draft, no expectations for this team, no fans/disjointed season - can you name a better season to get a high draft pick?
From what I understand the only assets on this team come deadline are PJ Tucker, House and Dipo. We can totally trade those 3 away for picks if the price is right. But even if all those 3 are gone I doubt its gonna make the Rox bad enough to get the top 4 pick. The Rox are too good to tank without disposing of other players like EG, and doing that would result in a loss in value. I dont want taking certain loss for uncertain value, its one thing if we fully own our pick but since we dont its not a good idea to gut the team and then possobly give the pick to OKC.
He can be flipped. Golden State could easily use him right now in place of someone like Kelly Oubre(gross and I would hate to do it but whatever). I think they can flip him to a win now team, given the way he's playing. Also his contract at the time was given after he had an outstanding showing in the playoffs.
You forget about 1 thing, we are picking pick 12 because we still have enough talent on this team, a great rookie coach, and players on this team really fight to win. The teams that have tanked in the past couple of years usually have really dysfunctional lockerooms, poor coaching, and a general losing culture. Losing that many games is not natural, something has to go incredibly wrong. I don't see how it's possible with this team to get in the bottom 4 this year unless players gets injured. You can't trade away Oladipo, Wall, Gordon, Tucker without taking salary and players back. The OKC thunders literally stripped their entire team this off season, and yet their young players are winning them games and keeping them at .500.
If there was a market for Gordon, he would have been traded already. GS is in luxury tax hell, no way they are going to take on Gordon's contract at his age, we would for sure have to attach picks. I doubt any contenders would be willing to take him and give us anything worth our effort in return.
Not automatically, the trade deadline is 3/25/21 and by that logic Beal or any number of players better than Gordon should have been traded already too.
Hmmmm......yea, maybe Gordon is a stretch. My main thing was that GS would be desperate to contend with Curry and that might make them a little desperate. But how about this.....and, you can tell me if this is unreasonable or not....but what if we traded Nwaba? He's 28, he's on a two year deal. His RAPTOR is the highest on our team and I feel like his trade value could be really high value right now? I know it sounds crazy and Im open to the counter arguments here.
I agree. It goes against the spirit of competition. We challenged this when the rest of the league folded to the KD Warriors.
We're not contenders but since January 17th, we've been showing an identity that can be carried over despite trades (upgrades or for assets), upcoming draft, or upcoming talent. We stashed KPJ on the G-League and do have players with redeeming characteristics that can help strengthen the culture of the organization and actual recruit based on basketball based merit. Of course all that may go out the window the next disgruntled superstar but hopefully it's the culture that attracts them. I would have pointed to Butler to the Heat but they're not looking so "hot" (no pun intended) right now.
What if we could get that now? If we lose him, House, Oladipo and Tucker. Than there is a very good chance we can try for that bottom 4 spot. Nwaba is actually a perfect trade piece and I think he has his highest value right now.
That's tons of salary we are shedding, you are going to get players back no matter what, so you still won't get to bottom 4. Look at OKC, they literally traded every single star player they had, and took back horrible contracts like Horford, yet they almost have a .500 record.
The way I see it, There's no way we can out tank, Detroit, Wizards and Timberwolves, those teams are already in the toiler. So you are essentially hoping for the 4th worst record. That is also not including Magic, who have major injury issues and are going down hill fast. There's also Knicks, Cleveland, OKC, who could also potentially lose more games as the season go on. We will see, but I just don't think it's worth it do it this season when we don't own our pick.
Then....idk man, I dont know how we salvage this season otherwise. But It all just depends on who we get back, you know what I mean. You saw what we looked like without Wall and Nwaba last night. Nwaba is our best player by RAPTOR, its a big if we trade him. Same with Dipo who has the third highest RAPTOR for lower level talents and picks, its not impossible. The Wizards are still trying to win games and we are only three games in front of them in the loss column. The Wolves, we arent catching, you are right. Detriot, same thing. But the Wizards we can absolutely catch. I really wish management and the coaching staff would get on board with this, but its likely we are just going to be on like we have been going.
Rockets currently with the 13th pick in the draft...the road to a late lotto pick or a 1st round slapping continues
I can see this happening, just keep hoping that Butler has one of those off years where he misses time and doesn't care.
