One thing people are not considering is that because Basketball is worldwide the talent pool has increased. Undoubtedly. Guys like Capela and Giannis and Luka would never be in the NBA if it weren't for its international growth. That's why Silver is very likely going to add two more teams. So yeah, recent drafts have shown its super possible to find star players in the top 14...and yeah it's unlikely to get a Giannis at 15 or wherever he's drafted but it's unlikely to get Lebron at #1 too. The whole thing is based on luck.
I'll be shocked if we can trade Gordon's contract without giving up first round picks. The other three I actually think have a better than 50% chance of being traded. ...and even after that I think people are still going to be disappointed in how "not bad enough" we are
Gordon is quietly having a good season, save for a ugly looking game last night. If he keeps this up to the deadline then he's a positive asset. As long as we do the smart thing and set up for the rebuild next season, I won't be disappointed.
People are bumping it everytime we win, so? You know how this place is very petty and people hold grudges.
The Morris twins were not loved by everybody coming out there were mixed opinions on them and those opinions proved to be true. Drafting higher gives you a chance to avoid those types of players, at that point in the draft it's a crapshoot. Yes you can also get a Capela but the odds are better when you pick higher.
Right, partly. Sometimes dumb teams get lucky, like the Cavs with Lebron. Anyone that had the #1 pick was going to draft Lebron, the Cavs at that point were brain dead. They then proceeded to put absolute scrubs around him. Then some times smart teams do dumb things. LIke the Pistons at the time were a well run organization that drafted Darko and skipped on Melo and they had their reasons that all seemed reasonable at the time. So sometimes bad luck can overrule smarts. People go yeah, how could Portland draft Oden over Durant!? At the time though Oden seemed like the safer pick and was one of the best prospects to ever come into the NBA.
That's true...but I'd wait to lose a few more games to bump it! I mean, I'd at least wait to see if we'd lose this game against Memphis tonight.
So then why try at all.....? So many pitfalls that are completely out your control. All of the pitfalls in the draft are also applied to your preferred way of just competing. That's why you need to both have a general strategy and be adaptable.
Why wouldn't people bump the thread - the case for being bad hasn't changed and it's not really going to change much (just become less relevant as the Rockets win just enough to end up in the worst possible scenario, not bad enough to get a top 4 pick but not good enough to become first round playoff fodder) - this exactly, btw where most forecasting has us.
I think there are now more pitfalls to just tanking and it feels like the general sentiment among GMs has been the same? You can still get a top 5 pick without tanking now, pretty easily, in fact it's happened every year since they've changed the rules. I think what is ignored among tankers are the pitfalls of tanking. That seems to get tossed out, that it's very possible you start an endless cycle of sucking that is hard for even competent GMs and Coaches to get out of and then you get to the point where only a generational Lebron like player will pull you out of that cycle. The pitfalls of just competing used to be that you couldn't get a top 5 pick. Used to be. That isn't a pitfall for it anymore. You can compete naturally and still get a top 5 pick now thanks to the new odds.
The thing is...the worst case scenario just doesn't exist anymore. You can now be mediocre and get a top 5 pick. It's in fact happened since the rule change that mediocre teams have gotten the top 5 pick. Most teams are playoff fodder. Like outside of 4-5 teams barring some shocking Miami Heat run, most teams are playoff fodder so I don't really get that argument? Imagine if Utah blew it up this offseason because last season and every season before they were playoff fodder?
I think you are getting caught up "tanking" semantics. Sure there are a few folks still not understanding the new rules, but most of us just feel like bottoming out is a prudent strategy when we have consecutive pick starting next season. While I can understand the reasoning behind investing in WOW, I just think it will end up being wasted time and I'd rather try and pair Wood with someone better. Maybe the person we draft is that player or becomes a piece in a trade for that player, but I don't see Dipo being that player or yielding that player.
Sure..... which is why if we trade a lot of the vets we still have a decent possibility of either being bad enough, mediocre enough, or just plain lucky enough to get a top 10 pick.
I don't think this team is getting rid of Wall or Gordon due to their contracts without packaging first round picks. I'm not jettisoning any of the the picks that our in our hands for the 50% chance of getting to keep a pick this year. Also, I don't think we should get rid of Christian Wood, his potential, and team-friendly contract just for the 50%chance of getting a top 4 pick that probably has less than a 50% chance of ever looking as promising as he currently does at this moment. I mean, I guess I'll listen to offers, but I'm not trading him for a protected first round pick Due to the above, I don't think this team is realistically going to be embarrassing enough to get that cherished 50% chance at a top 4 pick. Not without the huge costs of packaging Wall/Gordon's contracts with first round picks or getting rid of a promising young star just for a coin flip at keeping our pick this year. It's not worth it to me. There are too many other bottom-feeding, perpetually tanking teams we'd have to contend with in the "who can roll out the greatest **** show" contest. I don't really get the lack of patience that we have to do whatever it takes to get so bad immediately (at great cost) just to have a 50% chance at even keeping our pick. It's like some people just have it so mindlessly ingrained that tanking being the only option that they can't see the forest for the trees. Pace yourselves! We just started rebuilding 3 weeks ago. It will be a long process. The worst possible scenario for me would be giving away first round picks to entice other teams to take bad contracts and giving away Christian Wood and STILL not getting to keep our pick. It's not the end of the world for our rebuilding if we lose out on the lottery this year. I think we are still positioned well. I am keeping an eye on what happens with Oladipo, but not much else I'm obsessing over this season.
Hmmm...it it really outlandish at this point to say, Gordon is a positive asset? I think we might actually be able to get assets back at this point. He's looked really great.
