Extension amts I would be comfortable giving pending free agents: Maldonado $2M/1yr Correa $170M/6yr (would be willing to give an opt out after 2024) Greinke $12M/1yr McCullers $50M/3yr Verlander $15M/1yr Smith $1M/1yr One interesting background storyline this season is whether Greinke, McCullers, and/or Verlander pitch well enough to warrant a Qualifying Offer.
Greinke already had a qualifying offer from the Dodgers so he isn't eligible. I also don't see Greinke taking 12 million. He would gamble on this season before taking that deal. This is why how well Framber, Urquidy, and Javier pitch are so important. It's a lot different off season next year if those guys can be legit 1,2,3 in the rotation vs 3,4,5.
I agree Greinke wouldn’t take that deal. I am not all that high on him as I think he is more of a crafty veteran who slots in the middle than an ace. There’s a non-zero chance Houston could enter next offseason only looking for one good SP, if Valdez, Whitley, Urquidy, and Javier pan out (or if some other young arm emerges). My guess is Houston will need 2, one ace and one MoR/BoR guy for stability. I’m hoping Verlander wants to stay in Houston and they trade for another good arm with some years of control left.
Greinke and Verlander are the type to chase the most money. Greinke has said that himself. IMO both are gone next year, as some team will overpay and I will be more than happy to let them.
I think we have a better chance of keeping Verlander. If we extend a qualifying offer to him how many teams are going to pay a 39 year old coming off Tommy John surgery more than 18-20 million and lose a draft pick? Unless he somehow comes back this season, but I don't expect that considering he had the surgery so late last year.
Good point. Like you said about Greinke, Verlander seems to be also of the bullish mentality to bet on himself and show teams in workouts that he still can pitch. A team giving a "name" like his that amount of money wouldnt shock me in the least. The draft pick is the biggest kicker.
Both will be 38 heading into 2022 spring training. I am pretty sure that, if healthy, both will be getting short term contracts. I would be surprised if either saw more than $20-25 million per on those contracts. From the Astros perspective that would be a pay cut.
If either of them is going to command a massive payday like that, it would be Verlander. There's a chance Greinke is still a #3 quality starter this season, but I'm not 100% sold on that. I don't see any way he's offered 20 mil by anyone unless he performs more like a solid #2 starter this season. If he has another season with a 4+ ERA, which IMO is VERY possible, those massive offers just won't be coming from anyone.
I agree Greinke is mostly a mercenary, but I don’t think Verlander is focused solely on money. He signed an extension with Detroit prior to reaching free agency. I think at this point in his career he’s focused on winning and being able to pitch as long as possible. I also get the sense that Verlander has a really good relationship with Jim Crane, and coming off TJS may not be the best time to “bet on yourself” in free agency. It would not surprise me at all to see Verlander sign an extension with Houston. If Verlander is going to outpitch a QO level salary he’d have to come back and pitch 30+ innings and look pretty good doing it.
Cruz is incredibly cheap given his production. That's a guy who's finished top-10 MVP in 5 of the past 7 seasons. He's averaged 4.5 WAR in that span. I know he's DH only and he's 40, but that guy makes the Twins offense go.
Verlander is most interested in stability. He had to be convinced to accept leaving the rebuilding in Detroit for a chance to win a World Series somewhere because they were happy and simply didn't want to move somewhere new. Not sure they want to move yet again to a new place just to pitch a couple of more years, given that he's already a won a title (and they have all the money in the world).
Well he did he wedding plans that could be interrupted if the Astros had made it to Game 7 of the World Series.
Those are interesting. I may give Maldonado up to 4-5 million if he is healthy and consistent this year. There are some catchers that will be free agents but not a lot and we don't really have one ready to go in the system. I don't know about giving Correa almost 29 million a year for 6 years. Let's see what he does this year because that is still a lot of money for someone that misses a lot of games. I think someone gives Greinke more if he is solid this year. He is a warrior in the playoffs but he also doesn't go deep into games. He was going 4.2 sometimes last year. If McCullers pitches like I expect, I am not giving him 3/50. If Verlander is really healthy and the coaches say his fastball is popping I would give him a 1/20 or 2/32 deal. We are already locked into over paying Altuve. I am concerned about doing the same with Correa.
Cruz didn't really start getting a chance to play a lot until he was 31 years old.... and it is true he is a known PED user. Still over the last 10 years he has basically had the second half of Hank Aaron's career. He has hit 360 homers the last 10 years even though he missed 50 games one year, 40 another and then last year everyone lost 100 games. He has 950 RBI over the last decade as well with a batting average of 295 and an OPS of 900 For the decade of 2010-2020 360 homers 952 RBI OPS 903 Had he started using PED's sooner and become a regular before age 29, we would likely be talking about a first ballot Hall of Famer with 650 homers and 1700-1800 RBI
I'd be amazed if they got that. Verlander will be coming of TJS and having basically missed consecutive seasons. I'm guessing Verlander signs a deal for about half that. Kluber got $11M this offseason in similar circumstances, though different injury, but also 4 years younger (Verlander will be 39). I'm trying to think of a Greinke comp in recent history. Cole Hamels maybe? That was $18M last season. John Lackey got 2/$32M not that long ago. Of course both were younger than Greinke is now. Lester got only $5M, but he can't throw to 1st.
Verlander's value I think will hinge on whether he comes back at the end of this season and how he looks. If he comes back and looks solid, I think he will get more money than some people think.
I don't see him pitching, though I'd love to have that postseason boost. Hindsight is easy, but sure would have been great if he had the surgery sooner (of course given we were a game from going back to the WS, I actually think it ended up being a gamble worth it, even though he never made it back).