They didn't need to use the minor league guys as much because they had 7 MLB starters in Keuchel, McCullers, Morton, Musgrove, McHugh, Fiers, and Peacock before adding Verlander. If you want to argue the farm system is deeper now you are just being argumentative for no reason. Martes, Paulino, and Franklin Perez were top 55 prospects at the beginning of 2017. Martes and Paulino both started games for the Astros and Perez was the big piece in getting Verlander. The farm system was top 7-10 depending on the site. If you believe our current starting pitching depth is better than above you are dreaming.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-2-1-2021/ Some good stuff in this chat: Goldstein was all for the GOmez/Fiers trade Astros were very very close to trading for Bryce Harper Goldstein lobbied for Kris Bryant in the draft Still going.
Comments I thought were noteworthy... George: What is one skill do you think teams continue to overvalue in prospects? Defense? Arm Strength? Kevin Goldstein: Metrics without performance. Wade Blassinggame: Fill in the blank. The next market inefficiency in baseball is ____. Kevin Goldstein: I still think it’s somewhere in the health/injury realm as far as keeping players on the field, but that’s been the case for years, and great strides have NOT been made. Tim: So excited to have you back on Twitter. Pretty boring without you around. I’ll throw you a BP fastball (as A Soldiers Requiem blares) Luis Garcia, long term Starter or better suited for the pen? Kevin Goldstein: The term we threw around a lot in Houston was “reliever risk”. Garcia isn’t a slam dunk pen arm, but there is definitely a considerable amount of reliever risk. ... Nice to see the comment about metrics without performance. Totally agree. On next market inefficiency, I was expecting pitch design. Being able to figure out Greinke's change and weaponizing it to prospects (everyone is different so it isn't as easy as everyone has to grip it exactly like Greinke to get the same movement). Same for Taylor's fastball except maybe more as an option versus their max active spin movement fastball. I don't think baseball is close to fixing injuries. On Garcia, he's got some beautiful pitches. Needs to work on control, but looked like a good bet for a starter with his three pitches.
Longenhagen is my favorite prospect writer by a pretty good margin. I'm kinda excited to see the Astros prospect list, since Goldstein should have a pretty deep knowledge of their system. Hopefully he'll be a good addition to the site.
Doing things in a new way how? Luhnow and Click are parallel ways of thinking. People weren’t this upset when Luhnow’s biggest move last offseason was re-signing Maldonado
lmao...my God people move on with your lives. Regarding the market inefficiency question, I'm also surprised it didn't deal with pitching. Leveraging seam shifted wake pitches for instance could be a pretty big deal in the next few years.
To be fair, Luhnow made a lot of moves during his tenure, both during the offseason and at the trade deadline. Click doesn't have that resume to fall back on, and his moves have been pretty tame by comparison. Maybe when Click drafts guys like Bregman and Correa and then brings in two Cy Young type starters, he'll get the benefit of the doubt, too.
There is a big difference between farm system as a whole and upper level arms. Martes and Paulino were more liked than Whitley and Garcia currently, but after that 2021 has a lot more depth in minors regarding upper level pitching. Perez wasn't close to being ready. Astros in 2017 traded for Clip and Liriano because they didn't have rookies ready. If Astros trade for pitching in 2021, it will be for good pitchers.
Also Luhnow added Taylor and Maldy before he lost his job. Click had plenty of time to make moves after he was hired. Click was left a great situation and did nothing to improve the team.
Injury prevention and improving durability was something Luhnow used to answer when asked about the next market inefficiency.
Glad to have Kevin as a really good friend. He is modest, he played a HUGE part in the Astros draft, trades and even some in minor league emphasis. Click didn’t like him not being in Houston. Anyone that knows him well knows he isn’t going to leave the perfect life he has made for himself. I personally thought it was the height of arrogance to get rid of him like Click did. I am sure Sarah will be on the chopping block soon enough. Click does not like having people that don’t fit his style around. What Kevin didn’t tell you in his statement is that he is EXTREMELY competitive. He wanted to win as much as anyone and he can try to distance himself from the Astros (I get it, he is supposed to be objective now) but he was 100% invested and loyal and they just dumped him.
Click took over the team with a full roster of guaranteed contracts a month before spring training. Anything last year and this pandemic year where spending is widely down is not a sample size. They still held onto a top 10 FA. Used the international market to sign the CF of the future. Addressed an area that Luhnow completely ignored after losing the 2019 WS...A lack of dependable middle/late inning arms. Upgrading over scrubs like Devenski after 2017, Biagini, Josh James, etc. That only became worse for Click as Harris walked, Smith opted out, Pruitt & Peacock couldn’t go, etc. Nice to bring back the returns of Alvarez, J. Smith & Pruitt to this years team. Click has high marks from his first draft class and international signing class (Like Luhnow) and that is way more important in keeping a sustainable championship team than spending for it.
Maybe let's let Click get a couple of years in and figure out what covid is gonna do to the payroll? Or better yet, how about we let the offseason playout before we judge?
The talent to win another WS was on that team and the GM sat on his hands. Same as this year. Maybe he will add a major league quality CF on the cheap before the season starts. Like I said, Straw isn't a starting CF on a championship team.
I believe other teams made some moves last year. They're making some now also. Click? Castro, Baez, I guess you could call those moves. Bad moves, or atleast not spending the funds you do have in the best way possible.
Do the players want more or less games? Do the owners want more or less games? Let me google that for me MLB statement on '21 Spring Training, season February 1, 2021 “On the advice of medical experts, we proposed a one-month delay to the start of Spring Training and the regular season to better protect the health and safety of players and support staff. A delay of the season would allow for the level of COVID-19 infection rates to decrease and additional time for the distribution of vaccinations, as well as minimizing potential disruptions to the 2021 season that currently face all sports. “The offer included starting the regular season on April 29th and playing a 154-game schedule that would pay players in full as if playing 162 games. We also proposed two changes from the 2020 season that were overwhelmingly popular with our fans – for this season only, featuring a modified expanded Postseason (seven teams per League) and the universal designated hitter rule. “This was a good deal that reflected the best interests of everyone involved in the sport by merely moving the calendar of the season back one month for health and safety reasons without impacting any rights either the players or the Clubs currently have under the Basic Agreement or Uniform Player’s Contract for pay and service time. “In light of the MLBPA’s rejection of our proposal, and their refusal to counter our revised offer this afternoon, we are moving forward and instructing our Clubs to report for an on-time start to Spring Training and the Championship Season, subject to reaching an agreement on health and safety protocols. Our 2020 season taught us that when the nation faces crisis, the national game is as important as ever, and there is nothing better than playing ball. We were able to complete a 2020 season through Herculean efforts and sacrifices made by our players, Club staff and MLB staff to protect one another. We will do so again, together, as we work towards playing another safe and entertaining season in 2021.”
So tired of MLB and MBLPA's accusatory public statements. Take that crap to the negotiating table; I'm tired of reading about your petty private disagreements in public statements.
You continue to focus on one point I made about the minors. Let me make this clear. Go back to this same time of year in 2017. Not what we know happened during that season or what we think might happen in 2021. Compare our pitching depth at that time and what was thought about them at that time and compare it to now. Go 9 deep in starters. Keuchel- Cy Young in 2015 but battled shoulder/neck injury in 16 but still went 168 innings McHugh- 18 game winner in 2015 and wasn't as good in 2016 but still threw 184 innings McCullers- rookie sensation 2015... pitched well in 2016 but injured and didn't know he was MR Glass yet. Morton- veteran wild card with injury history but also had thrown a couple seasons with 150 inning plus Fiers- 2015 he was a servicable middle of the rotation guy with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.253 WHIP while throwing 180 innings. Not quite as good in 2016 but still gave you 168.2 innings with a mid 4 era. So more of a bottom rotation type guy. Peacock- started figuring it out in 2016. Started 5 games and made 10 total appearances with 3.69 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP. 3 of his last 4 starts in 16 were 5 plus innings with 2 ERs or less. Joe Musgrove- top 100 prospect before 2016. Showed flashes in 2016 including 5 quality starts out of his 11 games in 2016. Was expected to compete for a spot or be in the pen to start the season Francis Martes- top 15 prospect with top of the rotation potential. Was good in AA and the Arizona Fall League in 2016. David Paulino- top 50-55 prospect- already had his TJ surgery and had high 90s fastball with big breaking ball. High ceiling prospect. Moved from AA to MLB in 2016. Was dominant in 60 plus innings in AA. Did okay in AAA and got a cup of coffee in MLB in 2016 2021... Greinke- battled through some arm problems in 2020. Probably won't be a 200 inning horse like before, but he's a freak so can't count him out. Framber- Flashed in 2020 as a possilbe top of the rotation starter but it was only 70 innings plus playoffs. 70 innings is the most he's thrown in a MLB season. McCullers- was bad most of 2020 but got better at the end of the season and had mixed results in the post season. Is still MR Glass and hasn't thrown 150 innings in a season and has been in the league since 2015. Urquidy- Has been very solid but again hasn't thrown a full season in the big leagues. He's got 70 INNINGS TOTAL IN MLB Javier- Unbelievable start to his career.. but again he has 54 innings in MLB and has never thrown more than 113 in the minors. Luis Garcia- 12 innings... total wild card. Could be solid or could be Bielak Austin Pruitt- hasn't thrown a pitch for the Astros yet. Still injured. Bottom rotation guy at best or long man in the pen based on his career numbers. Forest Whitley- was a better prospect in 2017 than he is now. Head case and now arm trouble. He's still here because of hopium and his trade value has been destroyed. Brandon Bielak- epic meltdown in 2020. Nobody even wants to see him again this season The 2021 rotation might have upside with Urquidy, Javier, and Framber but they aren't the depth 2017 had. Especially considering the 2017 team had 4 guys that had multiple 150 plus inning seasons under their belt and this year we have ONE guy with 150 innings or more in a season in Greinke. I'm as hopeful as anyone that Framber, Javier, and Urquidy can be good in a full season, but I think the potential range could go from being sellers at the deadline or we win 95 plus games. Way more uncertainty of where our innings are going to come from this year than in 2017. Also, we don't have the horses in the minors to make a big trade. The Verlander deal isn't even possible anymore after removing the August 1st waiver trade deadline.
