No its the smart way. They are a good drafting team...they are also in Miami and go nowhere if Butler never decides to join. Bam is cool though. Nope, it wont be like that if we have good management who drafts well. With our current way, we will def be mediocre for 7-8 years. But most of them have tanked and have tanked multiple times to get it right. Masai got lucky the Spurs traded Kawhi for trash instead of LA(which is where he wanted to go). That is ...way more lucky than what you are talking about. Look at Toronto now....Kawhi is gone and they arent that good. Why bother drafting at all if "they miss more than they hit" meant anything? It doesnt bro, it really doesnt. Drafting is also better now than it has been. Its just trading the vets and letting the Rookies do their thing(while also putting up some bad lineups lol). It doesnt have to be toxic. I dont understand? Just let them lose on their own with a little tweaking. With your way, you are wasting the time we have with Woods and Tate. Mason Jones also flat out needs more playing time as well.
@HP3 is definitely saying it lol. It doesn't have to be 7-8 years, but it certainly is a chance, and people are acting like the odds are the same. They aren't.
Tbh I'm happy to just make the playoffs this year. It's a wierd year. And the chances of having a high pick are low. (due to pick swap , lottery, talent on the team) I'd like to trade Oladipo though. I like the Wall Gordon combo more. If we can get pieces for next year or get a young piece that isn't wanted. Aaron Gordon would be my favourite choice. Cousins Tucker will be gone next year I'd like a PF. To replace them. Aaron I also think has been great this year and will be even better with Wall running Pick & Roll with him. And shooters around him. If Wood or Cousins can commit defensively. We could also set up an elite defensive team.
That's because back then it mattered. It doesn't anymore. You keep saying "Oh you are just prideful, get over it!" I was Pro-tanking during scola years. People would mock me here for wanting Scola gone because he was messing up our tanks. There was a difference then though with the odds. I think this is the point you're missing and a vital point it is. Back then, you HAD to be VERY bad to get a top 5 pick, the odds were basically set in stone. Now, you don't. I think this is the crucial part you and others are missing along with the risks that come along with tanking... You no longer have to be top 5 bad to get a top 5 pick. I think that is the crucial part you're missing along with underselling the risks that tanking can bring.
Well, what i said is that an organization isnty destroyed by tanking. Bad organizations are simply bad organizations.
It still does dude? The odds being lower doesnt change that they are still favorable. GS was bad last year and got a number 2 pick. Its till works relatively fine. Im not missing it. If Silver wants to dissuade tanking then he should do it all the way then. The way the odds are set up still favors bad teams. There is more of a risk if you waste yourself in mediocrity. The "culture" will be fine, just give your young guys minutes. Are you agains tanking next year too? That's crazy. You need a foundational piece and the odds are better this way.
This is a chicken/egg argument, ignores that even good GMs don't have a good record at drafting. That doesn't mean one should never play the draft, I never said that as you insinuated, but it should mean that maybe relying on the draft solely to become a championship team might be a bit faulty...especially with the lottery odds flattened out so badly that since the changes mediocre teams have struck lucky in the draft already a few times. If you're forcing your GM to be judged by drafting than you're setting him/her up for failure because drafting the right player is not easy. I think there is a cycle of failure you can risk putting your team through.
The odds are not even close to being the same though, its a huge change and this isn't an argument or debate, this is 1+1=2. https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/9/28/16381426/nba-draft-lottery-reform-passes Yes I'm against tanking next year too, tanking as we used to know it is a dying strategy because the rules of the game have changed. Now when you tank and are the worst team in the NBA, you are more likely to get the #3 pick and not the #1. Now you can be 10th worst and STILL have a 14% chance at a top 5 pick. Look at that, that's the same chance the worst team has at getting the #1 pick!
No its not. It is absolutely not. Good organizations make use of their tanking, bad ones dont. Simple. No Gm ever does that though? They always have back up plans but the main priority is getting great players through the draft. Tanking is a valuable tool to use. Its just reality. This is risk averse thinking. No you are not, you just have a plan. Tanking doesnt equal tanking forever. GMs are good because they can be flexible. They take each situation and see how it plays out. Hinkie had a plan it worked. Bad teams got good draft picks and it has worked. Dallas had plan, it worked. And so on and so fourth. And honestly...its looking like GS being bad last year is working out for them. Wiseman will be good. \
The top 4 picks in this year's draft look like can't miss prospects. Dang........ Maybe we should roll the dice... Cunningham Green Suggs Mobley
Dude all this means is that they made it easier to tank, you dont have to be THE WORST. You just have to be bottom 3-4. Nothing about this changes anything. Thats ridiculous, especially WHEN WE HAVE OUR WON PICK. So what? Top 3 is still good. Now its bad that we dont get a number one instead of a number 3. Number 3 is still a high lottery pick. If anything this proves that you can be bad, just not THE WORST. It's 1+1=2 in this situation, you tank. Im sure if the Rockets actually had their pick this year they would tank, they would be stupid not to.
Not sure how anyone can argue that the nba changing the lottery odds hasn't significantly affected the results of tanking. In 2019 the first year it took effect... The 7th place team New Orleans Pelicans won the first pick. They drafted Zion. The 8th place team the Grizzlies won the 2nd pick and drafted the Morant. The 11th place team the Lakers also moved up to 4th. In 2020 the third place TWolves drafted 1st. The 9th place Hornets drafted 3rd and the 7th placed Bulls drafted 4th. In two consecutive drafts 5 teams better than at least 6 other teams in the league moved up to draft in the top 4. The nba draft lottery is now a huge crapshoot. Yes being one of the bottom 3 teams give you a 14% chance at the first pick and 51% chance of a top 4 pick. But a 7th place team now 7% chance at the top pick and 31% chance at a top 4 pick. Lastly the rockets are imo currently too good/talented to be a truly terrible team. Unless people are advocating adding draft picks in order to trade Eric Gordon, wall etc... I don't see how the Rockets can tank.
People need to let go of the idea of validating the Westbrook trade by not making what we give to OKC that bad. The Westbrook trade is over and done. Nothing is going to turn back the clock on that. Rockets finish worst or second worst or 3rd worst, they will probably get to pick in the top 4. If they finish 4th worst or 15th worst or 30th worst, they probably pick at # 20 or higher. 50% of a top 4 pick and 50% of pick 20 > 100% of pick 20. That is a huge, epochal difference in value. It erases the post hinkie changes since we don't have any inctementalk incentive to be 5-20. It's all the same. The Rockets have a huge gap in expected value this year if they tank v. Non tanking It's a forgotten/fanless/nightmare season. No expectations. Deep draft. Now is the time!
Huh? I'm confused as to how you looked at those odds and came away with the conclusion that the made it easier to tank. Literally the board of governors and NBA GMs took the exact opposite conclusion but you looked at those odds and went "Yep, this just makes it easier to tank." How does it make it easier? You are less likely to get a top 3 pick because of tanking and you are FAR more likely to get one. You had Morey himself saying the strategy is dead. You keep saying "It's stupid if you don't tank" yet the consensus seems to be since the change that it makes little sense to do so. Being top 3 is good, sure, but still, only 2 all-stars usually come from the top 5. You have no idea who that will be. You're still rolling the dice on a bunch of players and now you're advocating that we should destroy our team so that we can roll the dice? Do you not see how some people would find issues with that? You're taking on a huge risk just to play a game of chance.
Exactly this. Since the rule change, we've seen mediocre teams jump up and win the lottery. I simulated the draft lottery before we beat the Wizards. Out of 10 times we got a top 4 pick...and it matched up exactly at the time with the around 30% chance we got it and the first time I simulated it we landed #1. The odds have changed everything and I predict (along with the NBA that made this change) that you'll see less tanking. You'll still get teams giving up on seasons mid way through, you'll always have that unless you introduce some kind of relegation system with the g-league, but you're going to see a lot more teams be competitive because they know they still have a good chance at getting a better pick any ways. The point is. You don't have to be top 5 bad to get a top 5 pick anymore. The last two drafts were great examples of that.
