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COVID-19 (coronavirus disease)/SARS-CoV-2 virus

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by tinman, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    You don't know math. But I'll throw you a bone.

    Find Year to date death rates in 2020 vs 2019, 2018, etc.

    You won't find them...
     
  2. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    Ask yourself that question. Ask the professor that question how she felt when it was retracted? I happen to be an engineer. So shut the **** up.
     
  3. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    And you don't know how to read:

    "We failed to clarify that Briand’s analyses have not been published, peer-reviewed or verified by outside experts."
     
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  4. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Nothing in it was false. Why would you want it to be? Do you want more death?
     
  5. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Are you this stupid? It is data. Do you know how data works?
     
  6. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    That's because you cherry pick data to fit your own narrative.

    Why am I arguing with someone who doesn't know how to read? It makes sense now.
     
  7. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    You're an old stupid **** whose world has past you by. Your brain is close to being dust and pretty much your physical condition won't be able to keep up anymore. Just sit down on a couch and stop arguing with me. You'll be irrelevant soon.
     
  8. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    I do numbers for a living. You still haven't found the total deaths in the US? Of course not.

    What, exactly, do you do?
     
  9. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Interesting. I just hosted a 40+ person party and know several restaurant owners here; all my ageish. You? (and yes. That's a picture of Houston with a Goodyear Blimp, b****!)

    [​IMG]
     
    #10509 Roscoe Arbuckle, Dec 8, 2020
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2020
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  10. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    Good for you. Let's see how those knees hold up.
     
  11. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    According to most women I've dated? Quite well. But they tend to date former football players.
     
  12. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Oh, and just a "heads" up, the gorgeous girl on the left is going to be a Neurosurgeon. Actually putting her thesis in to get into Johns Hopkins while we were doing brunch.
     
  13. jchu14

    jchu14 Member

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    The seminar presented by Dr. Briand completely ignored the seasonality of deaths. There are natural rises and dips throughout the year, typically reaching a peak around new years then slowly dip to a low around week 32. You can see the whole seminar here: .

    Go to around 28:00 mark of the video and she'll talk about how during the peak of deaths from all causes, there are usually corresponding peaks of deaths from each individual disease. So If you zoom in to when the peak of death is in 2018 (around and a bit after the new years), then you'll see a peak of deaths from heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes etc. However, her point is that if you zoom into when the peak of all causes deaths in 2020, all of the other causes of deaths except covid19 is decreasing. What she conveniently does not tell you is that she's looking at data around week 22 of 2020 and comparing it data around week 3 of 2018.

    It get a major facepalm from me when I actually went and found this recorded seminar. Why would she compare two drastically different set of weeks? If you look around week 22 of other years, that's when deaths from all causes generally decrease. You can even see that in her slides, deaths mostly decreases from peak in the first few weeks of the year to a low in the summer around week 32.

    So it's absolutely expected that deaths from all causes would be decreasing since that's what usually happens every year! The only reason why week 22 is the 'peak death' of 2020 is because of covid19! If all other deaths had increased rather than decreased like they've been in all other years then it would actually be surprising.

    In addition, some people seem to be under the impression that she said that the decrease in deaths from all non covid19 causes can account for the number of covid19 deaths. Her slides did not say that. She may have implied it with ambiguous wording, but that data on her slide does not say that. This is the slide in question:

    [​IMG]

    The data actually says that total decrease week to week of causes from non-covid deaths is equal to covid deaths minus heart disease deaths. This doesn't say what people think it says. Why subtract out number of heart disease deaths from covid deaths? What's the rationale and hypothesis?

    She also conveniently cherry picked data for 2018. If you apply this same methodology to other year like 2015, 2016, 2017, or 2019. The numbers won't match up. The fact that she cherry picked 2018 and didn't use any sort of yearly averages is red flag too.

    Have you watched the seminar before? Are you still convinced that there is no excess death from covid19?
     
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  14. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    No, I do not. When this first occurred with the lockdown, I was dismissive, but I'd shut up if even 5% death rates happened. It didn't. Several months later, I need to see total death rates. We just got them and sadly the liberals who have zero idea how to extrapolate data are saying BASIC DATA IS WRONG.

    I know math probably better than 95% of you. Prove the data wrong.
     
  15. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Sigh. What type of engineer are you that doesn't go "choo choo."
     
  16. jchu14

    jchu14 Member

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    What basic data are you talking about? What do you mean by total death rates? IFR, CFR, excess death, or something else?

    Does the weekly number of deaths plot from all causes from the CDC not convince you that Covid19 is killing people?
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    In mid-October, the CDC released analysis of death figures between Jan. 26 and Oct. 3, and revealed there had been an estimated 299,028 excess deaths in 2020 by this time ( here , datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LWq2f/6/ ). It said of this figure that 198,081 deaths (66%) were believed to be due to COVID-19 – although the department also noted that underestimations could have been made on the total impact of the pandemic. A similar study from the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) looking at data between March and July also found US deaths had increased 20% during this period. COVID-19 was attributed to 67% of this excess (here).

    Source

    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-chart-us-death-figures-2020-idUSKBN2872MV
     
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  18. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/johns-hopkins-covid-mortality-study-briand-15764249.php

    For one, calling it a “Johns Hopkins study” is inaccurate. The now-broken URL didn’t point to a study at all, but an article that appeared in the Johns Hopkins News-Letter, a student-run publication, on Nov. 22.

    A quick search of the CDC shows there are more total deaths in 2020 than in 2019; the agency even tracks those numbers in a dashboard here. An October report from the CDC estimates the U.S. has experienced approximately 299,028 excess deaths from late January through October 3, 2020. Nearly 200,000 of those excess deaths can be attributed to the coronavirus. Two recent reports in the Journal of the American Medical Association support these findings.
     
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  19. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Pfizer creating a new formulation of their vaccine that won't need to be at -70c. Just saw it earlier on the wires.
     
  20. Duncan McDonuts

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    So we're still doomed anyways. A coworker's sister is a radiologist in a hospital that received vaccines. In her sample of 20 techs, 19 opted out of the vaccine.
     

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