I understand why the Astros would explore deals for Correa since he is entering his walk year. That said, I will be very upset if none of Springer, Brantley and Correa are on the Astros’ 2021 roster. I know Crane has kept a very high payroll for the last few seasons, and the pandemic has obviously hurt his revenue stream, but I have no interest in seeing the Astros operate financially like they did under Drayton McLane again.
If the Astros can't extend Correa I have no problem with them exploring a trade. You guys enjoying losing Springer for a compensation pick after the 4th round? I don't see anyway we sign DJ Lamahieu or any other free agent that received a qualifying offer. Morton was only interested in the Rays or Braves.
Even tho it appears really really unlikely that Correa will be traded, it’s fairly obvious that the strategy Click was exposed to in Tampa is to NEVER hang on to a player too long. That is probably the only factor weighing heavily on the side of Correa being traded. Correa’s surplus value is pretty low. He probably has ~$10-20M in surplus value for next season plus the value of the QO pick, which could be anywhere from $1M to $15M (in real value, not the value of the bonus pool amount for the pick). So on the low end, Correa is only worth ~$10M, with ~$30M representing the absolute most I could see a team valuing him. In terms of prospects, using fangraphs values from their 2018 article, you get somewhere in between 1 grade 55 prospect and 2 grade 45 prospects. A 55 grade prospect would fall in the 20-43 range in Fangraphs top 100. Grade 45 guys would be outside the Top 100 but still on a teams top 20 list.
Of course, not. However, I like having the opportunity to win championships, and the Astros were one game away from their third World Series appearance in four years. This is a special group of core players, and the Astros can afford to have one of the larger payrolls in the game (below Boston, the LA teams, the New York teams and the Chicago teams). Perhaps signing both Springer and Correa is not financially feasible, but keeping one an Astro long term should be a must.
The problem is by all accounts Correa refuses to sign an extension before free agency. He is dead set on maximizing every dollar in free agency. Maybe they are able to keep him with so many other SS hitting the market at the same time, but you will be taking a big risk that you want to sign him and don't sign other players because you want to keep Correa. Then a year from now another team blows you out of the water and he is gone. That's why I called it a "compensation" pick.........
I understand the thought process. However, don’t tell me the Astros can’t afford to pay one of Springer or Correa provided they are willing to remain with the organization. In 2022, the Astros have only $42 million in current salary obligations if they decline Gurriel’s team option. Framber is the only noteworthy arbitration eligible player, too. In 2023, the payroll is $59 million since Bregman’s annual salary jumps to $30 million with Tucker, Alvarez, Urquidy and Javier becoming arbitration eligible for the first time. As I previously said, the Astros should have the financial means and TV market size to be in the bottom half of the top 10 MLB payrolls on an annual basis. Crane also knows Astros’ fans clearly support a winning team. If the plan is to use this money and sign a different elite player like Realmuto or Trevor Bauer, fair enough. If they bring in LeMahieu, keep Brantley and add other good player to the roster, I can get behind that as well.
It is a compensation pick, but not a trade. The Astros didn't lose Springer for a 4th round pick. The Astros are given a 4th round if Springer signs elsewhere. Springer is not the Astros' to lose. He is a free agent.
I never said they can't afford one of Springer and Correa. However, that 42 million argument has been made multiple times on this site and is disingenous at best. Correa's deal would be for multiple years and the Astros have to look beyond one year. Bregman's salary goes from 13 million in 2022 to 30.5 million in 2023 to go along with the players you mentioned reaching arbitration and receiveing raises every season. You also have 2/5 of your expected rotation next season hitting free agency in Greinke and McCullers plus Verlander also being gone. So starting pitching will likely be a need unless we get lucky with more young guys stepping up. Also, are you assuming the Astros won't sign anyone? No Brantley or Bradley or whomever else? Unless they go full rebuild you will likely add a couple players to that 42 million. Also, do not expect the Astros to sign a Bauer or Realmuto or any other player that received a qualifying offer. Their draft picks are precious considering they don't have a 1st or 2nd rounder.
I don't see any way they let Correa go, especially if Springer leaves. You can't take two steps back like that and still pretend to be a contender next year. Correa is a team leader and still super young. Glad to hear that the front office seems to agree.
Nothing I have posted is disingenuous. The Astros have 3/5th’s of their current rotation under club control through the 2024 season (Valdez, Urquidy and Javier), and the entire bullpen was Pressly and a bunch of rookies this season. Provided those rookies continue to progress, the Astros have a young bullpen with many years of club control to look forward to. Of course, they could flame out and the Astros end up having to spend more than they hope on new bullpen arms. They also have at least one year to hopefully develop more young arms within the organization. Furthermore, signing top-of-the-line free agent starting pitching is a bad investment. Pitchers simply break down far too often. Click needs to focus on developing young pitching like the Rays do or trading for reasonably priced pitchers (both in salary and trade cost). I want no part of Trevor Bauer for that reason. (even if the qualifying offer wasn’t a stumbling block) Finally, players in their first year of arbitration do not earn a high salary. Cody Bellinger set the new record at $11.5 million coming off his 2019 MVP season (the previous record was Kris Bryant at $10.85 million). Based on that, I wouldn’t expect Tucker, Alvarez, Urquidy or Javier to have large salaries for the 2023 season (expect somewhere between $20-30 million at most). In the 2024 season, Bregman and Altuve will be the final year of their contracts. For me, I’d rather pay one of Springer or Correa $25 million annually (I’m not sure Correa gets that any way with Lindor, Seager, Baez, and Trevor Story all free agents in his class next year) than sign Brantley and one of Jackie Bradley or Jurickson Profar for the same amount of annual salary. If I could get two good hitters (Brantley and LeMahieu, for example) for the same annual salary, sure. I also would rather have either player than a combination of Brantley and Brad Hand. If I could land Brantley, Bradley and Hand for that amount of annual salary, it’s worth considering.
Wow.... Rosenthal essentially retracts idea of Correa trade... https://theathletic.com/2218327/202...-sonny-gray-possible-suitors-for-dj-lemahieu/ But while the Astros, like most teams, will entertain all trade possibilities, the source said the characterization of the club “floating” Correa’s name, cited in the initial version of this story, was inaccurate.
Sign BOTH Springer AND Correa. Period. The idea of trading Correa is as ridiculous as it gets. C'mon!
It isn't the same amount of money annually or in total. If Springer signs for $25M annually, it basically means he's getting paid $35-40M for his work in 2021 with $10-15M of salary deferred to the last year of his contract as Springer is worth a ton more now than he will be in 5-6 years. (edit: This shouldn't apply to 2021 as it is a depressed salary year and Springer is probably worth about $25M this year with his $ value likely spiking in 2022). Also, Astros can't force Springer to sign. Springer would likely have been Plan A if Astros thought they could sign him. Brantley and JBJ would likely be Plan B or C which is why they won't likely get close to the overall contract of Springer combined and probably about 80% (maybe 90%) combined in 2021 of Springer's annual rate (not what his 2021 year is actually being valued at). Regarding Correa, he shouldn't impact free agent signings much this year whether or not he is extended.
I’m aware that the Astros can’t force Springer nor Correa to sign. I’m also cognizant of the fact Springer may have no interest in remaining here after the sign-stealing scandal, the Astros manipulated his service time, and neglecting to offer him a contract extension like they did with Altuve and Bregman. As for the point Springer’s early years of a new contract are vastly more valuable than his later years (provided he gets 5 or more years), I don’t disagree. If George was interested in staying, the Astros could see if he would sign a deal where he gets the ability to opt out again after the 2022 or 2023 season to mitigate the issue of the later years of his contract being prohibitive to the team as he declines. I also just corrected my previous post to specify annual salary because, like you mentioned, you could sign all three of Brantley, Bradley and Hand for far less in total contract value than Springer alone.
The bolded part is the key - what if the Astros have to pay extra to keep them? Or what if they don't want to stay regardless? Maybe Springer wants to be near his home, and Correa wants to be Yankee? We have no idea where Springer or Correa want to be.
